NCAA Week 12

[zman1415]

I don't have a ton of time look through the new CFB lines but as BTB mentioned on twitter, KSU +8.5 (down from 9) already. Any thoughts on any of them? I like VT -12 bs UNC on thurs.

[oddsok]

Yeah I grabbed KSU at +7.5. Now it's at +9? Ridiculous.

Oklahoma -13 for me as well. Already -13.5 at 5dimes.

Penn State getting a TD head start? Vs a team that just lost to Purdue? Wow. Penn St don't give up much so that's a play for mine.

Will keep looking for anything that sticks out.

[zman1415]

What are we missing with KSU/Texas? Something doesn't add up. I already put 2 units down on it, trying to decide if I should go 2-4 more.

[oddsok]

Weeeeellllllll, playing devil's advocate I can say that:

-It's being played at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium;
-Texas have been good up until they lost to Mizzou;
-Wildcats coming off a bruising encounter with ATM.

I think I had more but I've forgotten.

For Kansas State, well we know that they are perennially underrated, amazingly well coached ( Bill Snyder), extremely opportunistic and have a dangerous running QB.

Once again (and I think BTB stated this as a reason last week) it seems bettors are taking a stand against K-State. They think it can't continue on forever, they will get unlucky at some point and they're not that pretty to watch.

[willieb21]

(11-13-2011 07:42 PM)oddsok Wrote:  Weeeeellllllll, playing devil's advocate I can say that:

-It's being played at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium;
-Texas have been good up until they lost to Mizzou;
-Wildcats coming off a bruising encounter with ATM.

I think I had more but I've forgotten.

For Kansas State, well we know that they are perennially underrated, amazingly well coached ( Bill Snyder), extremely opportunistic and have a dangerous running QB.

Once again (and I think BTB stated this as a reason last week) it seems bettors are taking a stand against K-State. They think it can't continue on forever, they will get unlucky at some point and they're not that pretty to watch.

Valid counterpoints. I would be more concerned had K-State not bounced back the way they did vs. A&M after that heartbreaker vs. Oklahoma State.

I was leaning towards taking the points for K-State, but now I really am given Texas' injury issues. If they don't get Shipley nor their two freshman RB's back (their other RB Whittaker is out for the year), this will be the biggest lock of the week IMO.

[oddsok]

Confirmed Texas Longhorns' RB Fozzy Whittaker out for the season with a knee injury. http://bit.ly/u4yGKa


And Tennessee now a 1pt underdog

[Beyond the Bets]

Texas is getting absolutely hysterical QB play right now. For the last three weeks, K-State has gone up against offenses that can — and should — be able to throw all over the field against them. Oklahoma only led by 6 at half before the game got out of hand, and neither Oklahoma State nor Texas A&M could break away from the Cats.

The Horns don't have an offense capable of putting up more than 40 points against K-State. And, with the way the Cats have been playing offensively (they've scored 41 or more in four of their last five), I don't think Texas can pull away from them.

This line, to me, is a combination of three things:

1. Texas is perceived to be a better team; probably 3 points better; and so having home field moves this line closer to a touchdown than a field goal.
2. The Longhorns are strong against the run, which is K-State's strength. In theory, the Horns should be able to neutralize K-State's running game — or at least slow it down — though I'm fairly unconvinced.
3. Pure stupidity and/or stubbornness. This K-State team has defied the odds (and the oddsmakers) all season, covering spreads and winning outright in games in which they are getting completely outplayed. Oddsmakers look at these box scores and say, "How is this happening?"

So, how is it happening?

Smart coaching. Smart players. Discipline. Not making mistakes. Forcing turnovers. Controlling the clock. And so on.

Again, I could have egg on my face Saturday night, but I really think the Cats win this game outright.

[Beyond the Bets]

[RyanParrill]

(11-13-2011 09:24 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

Wrong thread.

[HokiePokie]

Miami -1.5 (5dimes) @USF really sticks out to me. Do not be surprised if Miami wins big in this game. USF defense is terrible and they will be exposed by the Miami running game. Anyone remember how Pitt gashed USF? Lamar Miller for the Canes should do the same.

[zman1415]

Louisville as a pk against UConn seems interesting to me. UConn is brutal, but I guess so is Louisville.

[lindetrain]

Posted this in the other thread, but looks like more discussion here:

KSU is in one of the worst spots you'll see in CFB this year. Had an inspired effort in Stillwater two weeks ago before coming up short, then bounced back with a huge home win over A&M in dramatic fashion last week. Now coming off the 4OT thrilling win in Manhattan and hitting the road to play yet another quality squad - their fourth in as many weeks.

Say what you will about them getting it done week after week, but I haven't seen a spot as bad as this one yet for them. Things don't really get any easier considering the Horns are coming off their worst performance of the year and should be fired up for their home finale in a huge game under the lights, and have a chip on their shoulder after inexplicably losing the last three in this series. Also, FWIW, this is far and away the best D KSU has seen this year from a statistical standpoint.

I don't think UT is a home run laying more than one possession, but I sure as hell don't think the Cats can be played here.

---

(11-13-2011 09:19 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  For the last three weeks, K-State has gone up against offenses that can — and should — be able to throw all over the field against them.

You say this like they didn't?

[Weebay]

Lindetrain,

I agree with you here, this is a horrible spot against against a great defense.

[Beyond the Bets]

(11-14-2011 03:51 AM)lindetrain Wrote:  You say this like they didn't?

No, these teams DID. Point being, these teams should have been able to rout the inferior Cats, but didn't — well, aside from Oklahoma, which led by 6 and then went on a third-quarter tear to win by ... 40.

Does Texas have the offense to roll over the Cats? I don't think they do. And if this turns into anything resembling a low-scoring, muddy affair, then the advantage goes to K-State, IMO.

[mount187]

KSU might be a good spot to grab free m/l money via live-betting. M/l is +290 for KSU right now, if they go ahead early, and show signs of getting a win, you may end up being able to get Texas +$ live. It's not a horrible play to have KSU on the m/l anyways, so even if you get stuck holding that play, you've got a better than 3:1 chance of cashing it, in my opinion.

[Doustism]

USC +15.5 at Oregon...USC has really impressed me this year. Granted Oregon has had their number in recent years and Oregon is playing at a really high level, USC has played a couple easy games since their Stanford loss and Oregon is coming off an impressive performance last week at Stanford...but looking at the box score, Oregon had less than 400 yards of offense. They used 5 turnovers to make the 53 points more impressive than it really was in my opinion. I like USC to go into Eugene and possibly win this straight up all but I'll take the points as well. Thoughts? What am I missing?

[@oconnellp]

Anyone know why LSU - Ole Miss is off the board right now?

[Skating Tripods]

(11-16-2011 04:42 PM)@oconnellp Wrote:  Anyone know why LSU - Ole Miss is off the board right now?

I know I answered it on Twitter for you, but for anyone else, Miss's QB and RB are probably suspended for the game.

[oddsok]

Bought back half of my bet on OU -13 on Baylor +17.

I love Oklahoma at that number but I think in the long run this is probably the right play. Hope it pays off!

[tilted4life]

playing UVA +17 and K St also combining these two with Vandy ML in a parlay at 11.7 to 1 also have UCLA -10.5 and USC +15.5