NBA stretch run who's tanking who's playing

[EddieD]

With the NBA playoffs 3 weeks away we head down the stretch w/an average of 10 games remaining for each team. There is a lot to consider so i'll start with some thoughts on the Western Conference.

Spurs - Pops seems to be a momentum killer for his own team. He is so worried about resting Duncan Parker and Manu that he screws with his team player minutes. He did the same thing last year when SA lost 8 of its final 12 games and still had the best record in the west. Spurs currently 1 game behind the Thunder in the west. Spurs don't care if they finish 1 or 2 and IMO will not fight down the stretch for the top seed. They could have locked up the best record last year but tanked and rested guys and fell 1 game behind the Bulls. Houston Denver & Dallas currently tied for 6,7 & 8 seed. SA will play whoever ends up in their slot.
SA in their last 10 games have 2 B2B's. One set home and the last 2 on the road. In between they have a B2B2B. Pops is so worried about rest he's not going to chase the Thunder for #1 seed. Plus the Thunder have 3 of their last 10 vs Sacramento.

West 4-5 matchup. Clippers vs Grizz. These two will be a 1st round match up and will be playing for home court the rest of the way. I think these two teams could beat anyone in the west in a series so its unfortunate that they are matched against each other. The winner of this series will make noise in the West in round 2 imo. I give a small edge to LA if they get home court and a larger edge to the Grizz if they get home court.

I'm souring on Oklahoma in the west and I hope the oddsmakers make them big favorites. Westbrook shoots to much and sloppy with the ball. I don't believe they can live up to the pressure of being favored.

So right now I'm looking for value in fading SA the rest of the way. I should have just said that in the first line and ended this post. But BTB doesn't allow post w/out reasoning behind it. All good. Lets talk some NBA boys and get ready for the playoffs.

More later regarding other match ups and East....all opinions welcomed...GL

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-12-2012 10:16 AM)EddieD Wrote:  So right now I'm looking for value in fading SA the rest of the way. I should have just said that in the first line and ended this post. But BTB doesn't allow post w/out reasoning behind it. All good. Lets talk some NBA boys and get ready for the playoffs.

Hahaha.

OK, let me address that quickly: If some of you want to post a pick, or a lean, or a thought, or a hunch, or whatever, you are free to do it. Especially if you've been here awhile and have shared some information and have validated yourself to some extent.

Eddie, you've been here for a while and I think those who have read your posts have come to value the information you share. So, in that respect, you have earned a bit more freedom than Mr. No Posts, who wants to walk in, post a pick, keep his running units record, etc.

I want to encourage folks to be legitimate members of the forum and to bring something to the table. If you feel like you've done that, then I'm obviously not going to rule with an iron fist when you occasionally write a post that says, "I like the Spurs, and here's why." One word. A sentence. Whatever. I don't really care.

But yeah, is a post like the one you just wrote better than a word or two? I think so, and ultimately it should - SHOULD - lead to better discussion.

* * *

By the way, agree with your thoughts on the Spurs. But Popovich is the best coach in the NBA for a reason, and he knows which buttons to push and when to push them. He's also realistic and knows the Spurs won't catch the Thunder, so why expend the energy?

Of course, that doesn't always endear him to bettors, particularly when he sits every starter on a moment's notice.

[Beyond the Bets]

On second thought, OKC's closing schedule isn't as easy as I thought it was. Three road games in five nights — and five straight road games overall. At Clippers and at Lakers are the most likely losses, and I could see them falling to the Wolves or at least ONE of the three against the Kings.

Spurs should be favored in nine of their last 10.

[EddieD]

Just kidding about that comment boss. Prediction posts do nothing for anyone info wise. I try to bring some meaningful opinions worth reading. Thats why I'm here. Like my avatar now that I finally have one ?

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-12-2012 10:47 AM)EddieD Wrote:  Just kidding about that comment boss. Prediction posts do nothing for anyone info wise. I try to bring some meaningful opinions worth reading. Thats why I'm here. Like my avatar now that I finally have one ?

Actually, yes. Spent some time in Louisville a few years back but regrettably didn't get a chance to see the Ali museum.

I was too busy betting the Louisville women in the tournament.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Two teams out west going in seperate directions ATS-wise is New Orleans (good) and Sacremento (fading).

[SkyBlues42]

So New Orleans is doing good, as of late. Are you still willing to back a team like that? I would be more inclined to just avoid all of their games. Even if they end up profitable.

[VincentValour]

(04-12-2012 10:16 AM)EddieD Wrote:  I'm souring on Oklahoma in the west and I hope the oddsmakers make them big favorites. Westbrook shoots to much and sloppy with the ball. I don't believe they can live up to the pressure of being favored.

This...

I've been off OKC all year, don't think a team can win with an inefficient player, especially a point guard using so many possessions to shoot and turn the ball over. Not convinced they have enough scoring depth either, beyond Durant, Westbrook, and Harden (who is awesome) their offense gets a little sketchy.

Personally rolling with Memphis and the Spurs to meet in the conference finals. Obviously if they play each other in the 2nd round that won't happen. Not just jumping on the wagon either, hit Spurs at +3300 to win finals, and Memphis at +1900 to win the west.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(04-12-2012 03:49 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  So New Orleans is doing good, as of late. Are you still willing to back a team like that? I would be more inclined to just avoid all of their games. Even if they end up profitable.

If the spreads are right, yes. They are playing hard (can't say that for many this time of the year). Covered 2x vs the Lakers in the last week.

[JetsMetsRangers]

What do you guys think about Dal -3 at Portland? Dallas fighting for playoff spot and Portland just lost Aldridge for the year. Seems like a reasonable line.

[SkyBlues42]

Portland hasn't been a good home team for bettors. Down 25.99 units on the ML. I know a few loses in particular account for most of the units, but still.. if you bet against them in every home game, you'd have a decent profit this yr.

[TortiousTroll]

Portland has been so tough to gauge after all the trades and firing nate. I know I lost plenty of units expecting them to tank.

Without Aldridge, there's no one to defend Dirk. Wes has no chance if Jet is shooting well, but the same is true the other way. I expect the 1H to look a lot like GSW game last night, with POR getting some points back in 2H.

The line is really juicy, and the Mavs need to keep winning or risk ending the season as 7 or 8. I think the over is the best play, and the line is solid too. I locked in DAL -2 last night.

---

I also couldn't disagree more with fading the Spurs, and hopefully you chose to fire blindly on the Spurs post-ASG while they were 22-7-1 ATS up to 4/4/12

[mount187]

I don't have the exact quote in front of me, but Derron Williams was asked last week if he wished the season was regular length, so the Nets could get healthy and push for the playoffs, and he responded by saying, "Only 19 more days." I'm pretty sure he's ready to mail it in for the rest of the season. The Nets do still have young guys making a push for playing time next season (Brooks, Green, etc.), but I'm not sure they have enough to remain competitive in the coming weeks.

[TortiousTroll]

(04-13-2012 03:47 PM)mount187 Wrote:  I don't have the exact quote in front of me, but Derron Williams was asked last week if he wished the season was regular length, so the Nets could get healthy and push for the playoffs, and he responded by saying, "Only 19 more days." I'm pretty sure he's ready to mail it in for the rest of the season. The Nets do still have young guys making a push for playing time next season (Brooks, Green, etc.), but I'm not sure they have enough to remain competitive in the coming weeks.

Biggest thing for them right now is Gerald Wallace being injured. Humphries and Gerald Green have been bringing it every night, but that's not enough against strong defensive teams (like Philly tonight).

[ChicosBailBonds]

Miami sitting Wade, Hasslem,and M Miller tonight. I would expect a lot of this the rest of the season as they basically clinched the 2 seed.

[arzoman]

Warriors are officially tanking. David Lee out the rest of the season. They are essentially starting their summer league team (Four rookies!). In case you guys don't know, if the Warriors end up getting the 8th pick or better in the draft, they lose that pick to Utah. Only way Warriors keep that pick is by finishing 1-7. Right now they're tied for 8th. Everyone around here is rooting for this team to lose as many games as possible. Here's a bit from the local paper this morning...

The Warriors' team that takes the Staples Center court to play the Clippers on Saturday afternoon will look much like the squad they'll send to Las Vegas for the summer league in July.

Rookies Charles Jenkins, Klay Thompson and Jeremy Tyler are already in the starting lineup, and coach Mark Jackson is toying with the idea of moving Tyler to power forward and playing more with a fourth rookie, center Mickell Gladness.

The potential lineup adjustment comes in light of two possibly season-ending injuries the Warriors announced Friday. David Lee is out with groin pain caused by a hip problem, and Richard Jefferson is out with a swollen right knee, according to the team.

The Warriors know this looks like a tank job since they need to have a top-seven draft choice or they lose the pick the Utah. But general manager Larry Riley said that's not the case.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...z1s2bGgb7D

[ChicosBailBonds]

Philly has run out of gas also, pissed I missed out on fading them last night. Orlando may be another one to keep an eye on, Howard out with back issues.