NBA/NHL 3-21

[VincentValour]

Wanted to get these going again. Can't provide much insight on NHL but have feeling pretty good about the NBA. Unfortunately not loving tomorrow's games, have been very selective. One game's dynamics did stick out for me.

Clippers @ Thunder -8.5

Both teams on a B2B. The Clippers are on the 2nd game of a B2B2B. So far this year the 2nd game of the B2B2B has been the toughest. Both teams coming off a loss, had the Clippers won, this spot would be an auto-fade for me. The Clippers have been very mediocre since the Billups injury especially on the road just 11-11 SU, I believe the Griffin and Paul names make this team overrated. The Clips might have been looking forward to this game as Indiana had a pretty easy time with them.

As for the Thunder, they come home off a loss in Utah. The Thunder have been very good about bouncing back off losses, have also been a very strong 19-4 in OKC. I cringe to say it but might give the advantage to Westbrook over Paul in the point gaurd match up. Westbrook is a little bigger and should have more success against Paul defensively that Paul has against him.

The line opened at OKC -7.5 and has quickly shot up to -8.5 don't love playing big numbers in the NBA, so maybe trying to find a good number and playing a 5 point teaser on OKC -3 is the way to go here. Also remember that 3 is a key number in the NBA so would prefer that much more than -3.5.

If I had to choose another game for the other leg of a teaser it would be Bulls -2. (Total public teaser btw) Toronto on B2B, Bulls had a day to rest. Rose or no Rose the Bulls take care of business with that stout defense. Bulls 19-6 on the road, gotta think they get the win against the Raptors. Also getting the spread down to -2 is nice, getting under key numbers of 3 and 4.

[TheHandicaper]

So, I haven't capped tomorrow's games as of now, but I do have one marked in my calendar that has been there for long and that I've been waiting for badly:

LA Clippers @ New Orleans Hornets

This will be the third leg on a back to back to back for a not so deep Clippers team, all three games on the road. That lost in the first tear just makes me feel better about it. They will be playing their asses off tomorrow, and I like VV believe they come up short in their efforts. Won't bet it, because I still think OKC is in a slump and isn't playing their best basketball, but I wouldn't fade them.

The Hornets are an ATS machine as underdogs. They always play hard come 4th quarter, leading by 3 or down by 31, they show up day in and day out.
After starting 1 -6 ATS as underdogs at home, they are 5-5 with 3 SU wins, including a not cover +4 107 - 101 lost in OT against the Lakers (in which they deserved better, probably even the win).
Ayon is really starting to get used to the system, Ariza is playing better, Kaman will give the Clippers trouble inside. My only concern is, do Belinelli and Jack give enough issues to Chris Paul. And I think they do.

The look ahead line in my book is Clippers -200 / Hornets +165 implying around a 4.5 line. Think that could close around that 3 number, opening 4 or 3.5. I really like the Hornets to win it straight up. They have been the team I've had the most succes betting on this season, just seem to be on the right side everytime, and that will probably be my biggest play on thursday. Just wanted to pass along.

And oh, if you're thinking about laying -2 against Golden State tomorrow, I'd suggest just giving your money to charity. Please.

[VincentValour]

Interesting scheduling spots for both Hornets and Clippers coming up. For sure like the Hornets +4.5, but it all depends on tomorrow's results. If the Clippers win or lose a close game would for sure like Hornets. Like handicapper I think they "play their asses off" and come up short. However, if the Clips don't show up tomorrow, they might not log as many minutes. Then coming off two losses and vs a Hornets team on their own B2B would have to be a stay away IMO.

[EddieD]

My thoughts on the games discussed above. Durrant has been in a terrible shooting slump and is turning the ball over. Caron Butler has been in the worst shooting slump I,ve seen in quite some time. The Clippers are working Nick Young in with the starters (he started last night). I don't think Mo Williams is to happy about Young starting. He has had 3 terrible games since the trade. The Clippers seem to miss double digit free throws on a nightly basis (11 last night). The 1st meeting was a 122-100 win by LA in LA. Tonights total set at 197. In my view that line is begging the public to jump on the over. I'm going to wait for that # to go up and jump under for all the reasons above.
I like the look ahead to the Hornets tomorrow. NO has been terrible at home but I think this is a major revenge game for Kamen and Faroq (or what ever his name is) for being banished to NO. Plus the fatigue factor. But the line has to be right 2.5 to 3.5 is a pass on the game for me. Need at least 4.5 and maybe buy another half point. U saw what happened against the Lakers. As always Good Luck

[ChiefZilla]

Not sure how much you guys like "trends," but thought I'd add this to this thread.

OKC is the best ATS team in the league off a loss this season ... 9-2 ATS.

In 2010-11, they were 19-14-1 ATS off a loss. The year before that? Best in the league again -- 26-9 ATS.. In 2008-09, it was 36-23 ATS.

Those are the four years Westbrook and Durant have been together in OKC. A four-year total of 90-48-1 ATS.

[r2edline]

NHL Tonight

Lean to the Blackhawks -103 at home vs. Vancouver. This rivalry always brings out the best of both teams, but these are two teams headed in the opposite direction right now. Hawks are 8-1-1 in L10, and 6-1 on Road/Home B2Bs this year. For Vancouver, Luongo has played poorly his last few outings, and the team is really struggling to score, 2-5 in the L7 games. Like I said, this rivalry brings out the best of both teams, will be a tight game, maybe too close to call to make a play, but I lean to the streaking Hawks.

Not sure about anything else tonight, tight lines on the card. Also like the Rangers at home vs banged up Detriot and Ty Conklin, but -140 is a steep price.

[VincentValour]

A Golden St. win vs. New Orleans would be very nice for the games tomorrow.

[ChicosBailBonds]

A couple of Bulls trends someone can find useful - they haven't lost b2b in a year, and they are 8-1 on days with no rest vs a rested team.

[TheHandicaper]

Hope you guys gave that Hornet money to charity. Or at least kept it for that Wednesday game.
Listen to this: They're 0-8 ATS when favored. But that's just child play. They are also 0-8 STRAIGHT UP when favored.

VV: Opened 3.5, went quick to 4.5, then went south faaaaast too, and settled at 3.

That 3 line would imply a +130 line. Still think it could head south. But I love the 35 cents edge. I'll take it any day on a play I was going to make either way.

If you're still looking into it, Griffin & Paul both played north of 30. Griffin had the worst day of his career. They shot 37%. And they have to make their third travel in three days.

[TheHandicaper]

The New Orleans freaking Hornets. I'm one happy puppet.