NBA/NHL 2-13-12

[VincentValour]

Couldn't find a game to play Sunday at all. Now the new week comes and a few opportunities show up.

I still need to get on the research project of do rested teams play faster pace against teams that are on the back end of a B2B. If anyone has any ideas or info on this, or any other tid bits like that would be great.

Also other NBA hunches, is the Spurs are still +1200 to win the west and +2700ish to win the title. Not sure why the book makers are giving no love to Pop and the veteran Spurs. The last lock out in 1999 the Spurs won the championship, and had the best record during the season. I'm not saying they will do it again but Popovich knows how to manage minutes during this hectic season, and the Spurs have quietly built one of the leagues best teams. Not sure the Spurs have a glaring weakness. Think they have a great shot to hit the conference finals, and be able to lock in profit.

Now for my leans.

NBA

New Orleans +3.5 vs Jazz

Utah is in a dreadful spot here. Just won a rare nationally televised road game to the start their B2B2B. Now Utah has to go to New Orleans in right before they finish up their B2B2B against the Thunder. The Jazz will be thinking revenge vs. the Thunder as OKC came into Utah just last week and whooped the Jazz up. Unfortunately for the Jazz they have to play a game before the Thunder, the lowly Hornets. The Hornets will be on revenge vs. the Jazz for Utah's close victory earlier this season. The Hornets had two days to rest at home, after a loss vs. Blazers in New Orleans. Which if I remember correctly is the optimal resting time/situation for performance. (thanks Wally)

From a match up perspective that's where New Orleans is scary to back. Jarrett Jack and Eric Gordon are both out of the line up. The Jazz have had some trouble allowing offensive rebounds, from what I heard Kaman was reactivated (anyone know for sure) because if he plays the duo of him and Emeka could give trouble to Millsap and Jefferson.

Looking at the market the number comes out at +3.5, not sure where it's going to go. New Orleans has lost 8 straight so there's no question where the public money will go. This feels like public sucker bet situation, that might have some reverse line movement. Not sure if I could pull the trigger on anything less than +3. The line is just above the key number threshold of 3, and with a low scoring game the points do become for valuable. Really hoping to get this game at +4 but we'll see.

Also I will post when the Jazz arrive in New Orleans. @Lockedonsports will usually tweet it. Which btw is a great follow for info on Jazz games.


Dallas -4 vs Clippers

Not quite the write up of the Jazz game but still like the Mavs here. The Mavericks are in a revenge spot vs. the Clippers, as Dallas lost in LA vs the Clippers by two a few weeks ago. Despite the Clippers success recently on the road, I'm not convinced they are a team that can consistently win on the road. The Clips recent road victories include 3 wins totaling 7 points vs the Jazz, and injured Denver team, and Philly. Quality wins but not sure if they are a fluke. Other recent road wins come vs Charlotte and Washington and Orlando in overtime. Don't think the Clips can take down the champs in Dallas. Also think the Billups injury will start to wear on the Clippers. Worried about the match ups in this game, don't feel real confident about Paul vs Kidd at the point guard. So just a small lean here.

[DOP]

today is the day I take the Bobcats +12. They are horrendous but the Clippers laid 9.5 points here two days ago and Chicago 13.5 the night before, now Philly has to lay 12?

Trust me, I know how terrible Charlotte is & with Philly's defense, they may only score 55 points tonight but I have to think there is value on this team tonight.

I dont think you say anything like "they'll give max effort because of XYZ" but maybe Philly takes this game off.. they just went through a brutal stretch of Magic, Bulls, Heat, Atlanta, Lakers, Spurs, Clippers and then punished the Cavs.. if I were playing my mindset would definitely "ok we just finished a brutal stretch, now lets kick the sh*t outta the Cavs... ok great... now lets get this Bobcats game over with so we go beat Orlando again."

also, i'm seeing NOH +4. I think their a great tease candidate as I think it'll be a close game w/ FTs in play. I'd lean towards taking a 4.5pt teaser with the Heat. Milwaukee has beaten Miami twice. Miami knows this.

[Skating Tripods]

Like the Caps as a slight home dog tonight. Very slight depending on where you look, almost a pick. Game 2 for the Sharks of a 9-game road trip. Both teams played yesterday. Thought the Caps looked better than the Rangers for stretches of that game yesterday, and the Sharks mustered nothing against the Blues. Have to think there's a chance we see Thomas Greiss for the Sharks after Niemi played last night.

Rangers blocked 25 shots yesterday. Means the Caps took over 50 shots toward the net. Sharks won't do the same. I like Washington a lot.

No real leans on the other two games.

[KepowOb]

(02-13-2012 11:35 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Like the Caps as a slight home dog tonight. Very slight depending on where you look, almost a pick. Game 2 for the Sharks of a 9-game road trip. Both teams played yesterday. Thought the Caps looked better than the Rangers for stretches of that game yesterday, and the Sharks mustered nothing against the Blues. Have to think there's a chance we see Thomas Greiss for the Sharks after Niemi played last night.

Rangers blocked 25 shots yesterday. Means the Caps took over 50 shots toward the net. Sharks won't do the same. I like Washington a lot.

No real leans on the other two games.

Looks like Greiss has been confirmed. The Caps are likely starting Neuvirth though (he's yet to be confirmed though), and he's been less than impressive this season...

[Skating Tripods]

(02-13-2012 11:44 AM)KepowOb Wrote:  Looks like Greiss has been confirmed. The Caps are likely starting Neuvirth though (he's yet to be confirmed though), and he's been less than impressive this season...

Thanks. Still like the Caps.

It's very hard to be critical of backup goalie stats because they're generally playing the second game of a b2b with a tired team in front of them. Generally, they've played better than the stats would indicate.

Also, the Caps are a much different team since Dale Hunter took over. The forwards actually backcheck now. They bought in and they've played better as a result, which also helps the goaltenders. Under Boudreau, Neuvirth had given up 28 goals in 8 games. 28 in 13 games since Hunter took over.

Caps need this one. Tough loss yesterday. Impending SE Division road trip. Big game for them.

[The Peoples Champ]

Will peak at games later but @WaltonCaps is their radio guy. Great guy that was in Hershey forever, usually posts the Caps goalies as soon as he gets them.

[The Peoples Champ]

Yikes, no one playing the NBA and NHL around these parts? Thanks for the big write-ups, ST, VV, and DOP.

I disagree with playing Charlotte, though, because while it's too many points to lay with Philadelphia, they have played well against bad clubs on the road, and I think the Sixers could very well win by 20, but we all know how those last two minutes can screw these types of bets.

Missed the 6 with Minnesota, but still like them this evening. I think the T-Wolves could really speed Orlando up, and both come off a days rest so no issues there. Love said he felt the road would bring a renewed intensity, and I would believe that to be possible. I want to play the over, but don't think I can pull the trigger.

Not playing NO if Okafor is out, but I do like that line if he is out, and if it moved to 6, will be even more thrilled. That all depends on, and may be intertwined with, Okafor's status.

---

Also rolling with Montreal in the NHL. Carolina is awful on the road, and Price has been out of this world. Simple as that.

[Wally Goosefeathers]

I like Minnesota alot tonite. Since Beasley has been back, they've played well. Derrick WIlliams is turning into a nice body off the bench and they really have some depth. LIke you said TPC, their pace can do some damage and I think they have the bigs to atleast contain Orlando a little bit.

I also like LAC getting 4.5 against Dallas. I actually thought Dallas should be getting points tonight, So i obviously love seeing LAC with the points. Clips have played well on the road and I think they matchup well against Dallas.

I did a study on Half bets and quarter bets and lets see how these turn out.

1st Half Bets: (all records are without the spread)
Orlando -2.5 (Orlando 11-4 at home +5pts/Minny 2-9 away -2pts)
New Orleans +2.5 (NO 8-8 at home +1pt/Utah 1-9 away -7pts)
Dallas -2.5 (13-2 at home +4pts/LAC 3-9 +1pt)

1st Quarter:
Orlando -1.5 (Orlando 11-4 at home +4pts/Minny 5-6 away -1pt)

2nd Quarter:
Philly -3 (Philly 8-2 away +7pts/Charlotte 3-9 at home -3pts)
NO +1 (NO 10-6 at home +1pt/Utah 3-7 away -6pts)

3rd Quarter:
Minny +1.5 (8-3 away +4pts/Orlando 6-9 at home -1pt)

4th Quarter:
Milwauke +1.5 (8-4 at home +3pts/Miami 6-8 away -3pts)

2nd Half lines arent available yet.. but here are some solid picks to monitor depending on how the game is going....

Milwaukee (7-5 +3pts) over Miami (4-10 -3pts) - If Milwaukee is getting 2-3 pts I might bite.
Minnesota (8-3 +5pts) over Orlando (7-8 -2pts) - again 3 pts would do it

[mattrud]

I just love MIA in the revenge spot tonight. -6 is too steep for me, though, so I'm on 1H -3.5, 1H ML and Full-game ML. All-in for Joe Public, here.

At least World_Wide_WOB agrees with me...

[The Peoples Champ]

Awesome write-up, WG, can't wait to follow along.

[Skating Tripods]

Sharks are like 15-1 against the Caps since 2000. Read that after I locked in my bet. Maybe Hunter is able to buck that trend.

[Skating Tripods]

Thought the Caps played a strong first period. Pretty wide open game. Both teams had good chances. Would have preferred Neuvirth, but Holtby and Neuvirth aren't that far apart.

[JayPrimetown]

Didn't make my NBA plays until late in the day as I was consumed with tennis capping...

I really liked the Orlando / Miami ML Parlay. Kevin Love is a huge matchup problem for nearly every team in the NBA, but Howard is able to contain him better than anything else in the league. When Love / Howard play, Magic are 6-0 vs the T-Wolves. Wolves are down a bit after that Knicks loss. As for the Heat, big revenge game for them as the Bucks embarrassed them in the 2H. This is an important one for them.

My other NBA play is Golden St. -3. They have played so much better the last couple weeks. Monta Ellis has really stepped on offense and David Lee has been extremely effective both on the glass, shooting, and passing the ball to shooters for open looks. Favored by only a possession? Surprising.

[The Peoples Champ]

Well bit the bullet with Minneosta, but at the same time, Orlando making three more triples than normal made the difference, and JP was right above, Love scored 6 less than usual.

[Skating Tripods]

Caps played pretty bad in their own zone for the 2nd and 3rd. Ah well. Another bad read. I should just cap CFB.

[Wally Goosefeathers]

(02-13-2012 06:23 PM)Wally Goosefeathers Wrote:  I like Minnesota alot tonite. Since Beasley has been back, they've played well. Derrick WIlliams is turning into a nice body off the bench and they really have some depth. LIke you said TPC, their pace can do some damage and I think they have the bigs to atleast contain Orlando a little bit.

I also like LAC getting 4.5 against Dallas. I actually thought Dallas should be getting points tonight, So i obviously love seeing LAC with the points. Clips have played well on the road and I think they matchup well against Dallas.

I did a study on Half bets and quarter bets and lets see how these turn out.

1st Half Bets: (all records are without the spread)
Orlando -2.5 (Orlando 11-4 at home +5pts/Minny 2-9 away -2pts)(WIN 55-44)
New Orleans +2.5 (NO 8-8 at home +1pt/Utah 1-9 away -7pts)(WIN 41-36)
Dallas -2.5 (13-2 at home +4pts/LAC 3-9 +1pt)(WIN 55-47)

1st Quarter:
Orlando -1.5 (Orlando 11-4 at home +4pts/Minny 5-6 away -1pt)(WIN 29-26)

2nd Quarter:
Philly -3 (Philly 8-2 away +7pts/Charlotte 3-9 at home -3pts)(LOSS 27-28)
NO +1 (NO 10-6 at home +1pt/Utah 3-7 away -6pts)(WIN 21-15)

3rd Quarter:
Minny +1.5 (8-3 away +4pts/Orlando 6-9 at home -1pt)(LOSS 22-24 AHHH)

4th Quarter:
Milwauke +1.5 (8-4 at home +3pts/Miami 6-8 away -3pts)(LOSS 22-24 AHHH)

2nd Half lines arent available yet.. but here are some solid picks to monitor depending on how the game is going....

Milwaukee (7-5 +3pts) over Miami (4-10 -3pts) - If Milwaukee is getting 2-3 pts I might bite.
Minnesota (8-3 +5pts) over Orlando (7-8 -2pts) - again 3 pts would do it

5-3 .. Minny and Milwaukee losses by 1/2 a point... Philly just crapped the bed. Solid night overall. I will definitely continue to look at these.