NBA/NHL 2-10-12

[The Peoples Champ]

Roles are reversed today as has a full card while the NHL is slimmed down to four games. Here's what I like in the Association:

I have the Miami/Washington total at 193, so I might bite on the under if it goes up anymore, but I think the side is a wash, as 12.5 is is just too high a number for me to lay on the road, even with it being Washington.

I have the Boston/Toronto total set at 180, so the 175 it sits at now gives me a little less than a possession in that one, and I could see Boston, off the B2B, get a bit sloppy on the defensive end. Also have the C's capped as a 7 point favorite, so like them opening at 4.5, too.

Atlanta/Orlando is another game I have set over the total at 186, and it's already moved up a point from the open, so going to jump on that before I hit the sack tonight. Even though both clubs have some of the lower pace numbers in the league, they both have higher totals than average with a day in between, so I trust my numbers in this spot.

Have the Chicago/Charlotte total right on the dot at 183, so won't be playing that, and again, Chicago as huge road chalk doesn't intrigue me.

Not really seeing an edge in the Sixers/LAC total, though I do like LAC getting the four, as I have the Sixers as just two point favorites.

Could see Milwaukee/Cleveland going under by a smidge, but would feel more comfortable if the line moved up a little bit. They both play the same pace, which I prefer because it doesn't mean one has to play to the others tempo, and Milwaukee scores a bit less on the road.

I actually have New Jersey favored in their match-up with New Jersey tomorrow, though I'm not really sure why. Need to figure out why those numbers are the way they are tomorrow.

Leaning Indiana as I have their game with Memphis tomorrow capped as pick, but am dead on with the total at 184.5. May not like the Pacers as much tomorrow when I check out the intangibles, and also the fact that Memphis scores about six more points a game on average at home.

The Dallas/Minnesota game intrigues me because if the game is played at Minnesota's pace, I think it goes over, but if Dallas can slow things down a bit, I think it stays under. Want to run that a bit more tomorrow.

Finally, have NYN/LAL capped at pick 'em, with that one sailing way under the total, but another game I want to check out again in the morning.

Best of luck guys, I'll check in tomorrow morning!

[lindetrain]

FWIW to all, I saw some talk of a good site to check for confirmed goalies...another one is leftwinglock.com. Typically have projected goalies up the night before (and the occasional confirmed goalie), if you don't wanna wait until the day of to cap.

[VincentValour]

Took the day off yesterday, wow felt great.

Like the heavy NBA card. A few early leans will have to dig into more.


Dallas -2 @ Minnesota

Like Dallas in this spot based on double revenge. Twolves have won first two games of this series, really don't think Dallas will get swept. Also under key number threshold of 3. Love should be back for this game, but really like Dirk to work him over. Twolves 3rd game in 4 nights as well.


OKC -1 @ Utah

Love OKC off a loss, tough B2B going into Utah, but that is accounted for in the line The young legs of OKC should be ok against a Jazz team that has overachieved so far this season.


Orlando -4.5 vs Atl

Orlando on playoff revenge. Also have no idea how Atl stops Howard. Simple as that. Would really like this number lower, started at -5 so hoping to get down -4.


Milwaukee -1 @ Cleveland Probably won't even play this game, but to me it is a very interesting handicap. Hate playing Milwaukee on the road, but like that Cleveland won their first game without Irving. Think the injury let down will set in now. (Assuming he won't play) However, also think the line would be much different if Irving was playing. Perhaps an over adjustment here.


Toronto +4.5 vs Boston
Knicks +3 Lakers

Pretty much same thinking behind both games. Two old teams Boston and LA on B2B games, after a tough overtime thriller. Think for sure the Knicks try to run the Lakers off the floor with their assortments of guards and Linsanity. Not as confident in Toronto but hoping Boston's legs are gone. Both games at or over the key number threshold of 3.


Which speaking of Boston, 5dimes had division winners up just earlier today. Boston and San Antonio really intrigued me. Spurs were at +150 to win the division, kind of high for how well they have played this year and Manu coming back very soon. Also Boston at a + price can't remember if it was +150 or +200. Boston playing really well, and Philly is just getting into the tough part of their schedule. Could be value there as well.


Also question for you guys, I do follow the NHL, but have never capped it outside of Future bets. BTW go Rangers +3600!!!

What do you typically look for when capping?
Flat spots?
Wrong pricing?
Goalie fatigue?

Any help would be great thanks!

[The Peoples Champ]

Hey VV,

Great NBA insight, and as for the NHL, looking for goalie mismatches is a must, and there are more look ahead/trap spots then you'd think. I will elaborate more once I can get to a computer.

[KepowOb]

(02-10-2012 01:32 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  Also question for you guys, I do follow the NHL, but have never capped it outside of Future bets. BTW go Rangers +3600!!!

What do you typically look for when capping?
Flat spots?
Wrong pricing?
Goalie fatigue?

Any help would be great thanks!

I start by looking for certain spots. B2B games are one of the first things I'll look for, for a number of reasons. First off, typically a backup goalie is starting the second game of a B2B, so that always helps.

Some teams actually play decently in B2B situations, whereas other teams tend to do horribly (the Jets for example, and the Stars (who are playing their second set of a B2B tonight). Both are 0-9 in the second game of a B2B).

I haven't looked into why some teams do better than others as much as I should, but I'd say it comes down to travel (like for the Jets), and some of it down to how competent their backup is, and of course fatigue. When I see a team like the Stars tonight, who are in a road/road situation and who struggle in B2B games, it gives me a reason to fade them. I'll then look into starting goalies, and how both teams have been playing of late and all that jazz (I'll also look if the majority of them are regulation losses, or have they been getting unlucky with say, 4 shootout losses or something wacky like that), and then decide if it's worth making a play against them or not. If a team always struggles in B2B, I won't make a play on them.

For totals, I look at teams O/U on the season, and more recently as well (last 5-10 games). Some teams, such as the Kings, are under machines (11-31-12 on the season), whereas most teams sit closer to .500 O/U on the season. When two teams who have a tendency to go under a lot play one another, I'll usually play it unless something really stands out, but I will look into the game before betting. Other times it takes a bit more looking into. I'll pretty much always wait for starting goalies to be confirmed here, because it's way too easy to get burned by a crappy backup letting in a few softies.

I think the under is the much safer bet these days, but even after my post yesterday regarding Unders being hot these days, I didn't make one under bet on that card (thankfully, I think one game hit the under?) because I wasn't confident in any of those games (I did bet Tampa/NY Under 1.5 1st period though).

I find 1st period totals interesting. Some teams have interesting trends here, though I'm not sure how much of it is chance. The Hurricanes, for example, are 29-24-2 O/U on the season, but at home, their 1st period O/U is 9-20. The Rangers are also 4-20 at home for their 1st period O/U, which is pretty crazy. I don't bet 1st period totals very often, but some spots do seem to jump out every now and then.

I could keep going here, but for the moment this is long enough. If you've got any more questions, or if I see someone bring up something that I forgot or that reminds me of something, I'll chime back in.

[DOP]

I like the OKC/UTAH game going under. the game last night was at 200 w/ some fouls coming into play (and a 70pt 2Q) Utah doesnt shot the 3PT much and doesn't shoot it well. I think OKC will have heavy legs but will play solid defense in an attempt to avoid B2B losses. I actually think Utah should have trouble shooting tonight and I dont expect OKC to win in a blowout so I think neither teams hits 100.

[The Peoples Champ]

Haven't looked at the lines yet this morning but did see Hawes is out tonight for Philly FYI.

---

Worth pointing out in the Bos/Tor game is J.T Orr has officiated three games with totals under 180, and all have gone over. Not enough time to post my notes, but really like that over.

[BetATL]

Atlanta @ Orlando is an intriguing game to me.

The Hawks matchup well with the Magic and have had good success against them recently covering 9 of their last 10 when facing them including 5 of 6 in the playoffs last year.

Usually, I think this would be a great place to take the Hawks but with Horford out and Collins out I'm not sure how they will stop Howard. I don't trust the Zaza, Dampier duo to do that.

[Skating Tripods]

(02-10-2012 01:32 AM)VincentValour Wrote:  What do you typically look for when capping?
Flat spots?
Wrong pricing?
Goalie fatigue?

Any help would be great thanks!

I look for a lot of factors. The biggest is price. It's so hard to pick the -1.5 pucklines with any regularity because of the league's parity and the point for losing in OT/SO. You have to be getting the right price.

I like to play home dogs. There are two big benefits to being at home. The home team gets the last line change, which means that they can match up better with the opposition. Usually, bad teams lack depth. But, at home, they get the matchups they want. The other benefit is that you can pick if you go first or second in the shootout. So, the home team can dictate the shootout.

I like to play-on teams in the first game of a back-to-back if the second opponent is a better team. Dallas last night was an example of that rule. Much tougher game tonight against Buffalo. So they emphasize the first one to at least get a split.

A fade spot is to fade a team in their final road game if they've had a successful road trip. Teams generally aim for 50% of the points on a road trip. If a team is 2-1-1 on a 5 game trip, they're happy with that. They may look ahead to getting home in that last game.

I'm a matchup capper to begin with, but I like to look at styles of play and use that. Take the Sabres. They're a team based on fast transition. I like to bet them against "methodical" teams, like Boston, the Rangers, or the Predators. I would fade them against teams that can match their speed because their defense is lacking. These would be like Vancouver, San Jose, or Edmonton.

I'm finding that I'm less worried about backups playing. Teams go into defensive shells and protect the backup.

There are definitely flat spots for some teams based on travel.

Always be aware of flu situations. They roar through a locker room.

Play-on West teams against the East. Most teams in the East have a hard time matching up against the West. Or at least it seems that way to me.


I don't do a ton of total betting unless its a really obvious spot like LA v. STL or something.

Hope some of that helps.

[illadelphia]

(02-10-2012 11:25 AM)DOP Wrote:  I like the OKC/UTAH game going under. the game last night was at 200 w/ some fouls coming into play (and a 70pt 2Q) Utah doesnt shot the 3PT much and doesn't shoot it well. I think OKC will have heavy legs but will play solid defense in an attempt to avoid B2B losses. I actually think Utah should have trouble shooting tonight and I dont expect OKC to win in a blowout so I think neither teams hits 100.

Agree w/ you on this under DOP.

Here's my take - UTAH/OKC:

Despite OKC averaging 215 ppg in the 1st 4 games of this road trip, they have played 4 games in 5 days. Tonight will be their 2nd B2B of the trip. They played (and lost) a tough game in Sac last night, which featured a very up-tempo 2nd half. As for Utah, they allow just 92.9 ppg at home this year and their offensive production has been down at home the past few games. A tired OKC team and a Utah team looking to defend Durant with everything they have and limit OKC’s momentum swings, should make for a lower scoring affair in Utah.

Quotes from Jazz coach Tyrone Corbin:
"We'll use different guys on him (Durant)," Corbin said. "We have to make sure we continue to give him tough looks and make him work for everything he gets on the floor."

Corbin said Russell Westbrook's ability to get into the lane at will and create havoc is a major concern for the Jazz. "We have to do a better job, especially against a guy like Westbrook who's relentless and he'll continue to come," Corbin said. "He don't want to lay it in the basket. He wants to dunk it in the basket to keep himself going and make his teammates feel excited about the momentum change."

[mchurch21]

At work and trying to sneak in a quick reply!
Not much I'm seeing tonight but am playing the knicks. NBA teams on the road after a 1pt win (especially vs a rival) bodes well for ny. Old tired legs and such.

[illadelphia]

(02-10-2012 03:50 PM)illadelphia Wrote:  

(02-10-2012 11:25 AM)DOP Wrote:  I like the OKC/UTAH game going under. the game last night was at 200 w/ some fouls coming into play (and a 70pt 2Q) Utah doesnt shot the 3PT much and doesn't shoot it well. I think OKC will have heavy legs but will play solid defense in an attempt to avoid B2B losses. I actually think Utah should have trouble shooting tonight and I dont expect OKC to win in a blowout so I think neither teams hits 100.

Agree w/ you on this under DOP.

Here's my take - UTAH/OKC:

Despite OKC averaging 215 ppg in the 1st 4 games of this road trip, they have played 4 games in 5 days. Tonight will be their 2nd B2B of the trip. They played (and lost) a tough game in Sac last night, which featured a very up-tempo 2nd half. As for Utah, they allow just 92.9 ppg at home this year and their offensive production has been down at home the past few games. A tired OKC team and a Utah team looking to defend Durant with everything they have and limit OKC’s momentum swings, should make for a lower scoring affair in Utah.

Quotes from Jazz coach Tyrone Corbin:
"We'll use different guys on him (Durant)," Corbin said. "We have to make sure we continue to give him tough looks and make him work for everything he gets on the floor."

Corbin said Russell Westbrook's ability to get into the lane at will and create havoc is a major concern for the Jazz. "We have to do a better job, especially against a guy like Westbrook who's relentless and he'll continue to come," Corbin said. "He don't want to lay it in the basket. He wants to dunk it in the basket to keep himself going and make his teammates feel excited about the momentum change."

This number keeps going up. Opened at 200.5 and is currently at 202.

Not a huge jump but it caught my eye. Anybody see something I am missing here?

[VincentValour]

good stuff thanks for the info guys