NBA Futures

[jimmysingh9]

Has anyone made any NBA futures in anticipation of the trading and free agency beginning?


I put some futures out there early this week on some Western Conference teams.

Here is my thinking. The Eastern Conference is a beast right now and I think the power has shifted. You have the Miami Heat who will always be there in the end and have no value whatsoever in the future market. Then you have the Bulls, Celtics, Knicks right there that will be in the playoffs deep. After that you may have the Magic, Hawks, Nets depending on who they sign.

But I feel all the teams I mentioned after the Heat are going to have a tough time beating them in a 7 game series and hedging with having to take the Heat in a Series will not really be profitable before the Finals and may get expensive.

So I go to the Western Conference and right away with the News coming out of LA, I took my biggest future with the Lakers at +600. If they acquire only small pieces that improve their team, I still believe they will be there in the end with their nucleus of Kobe,Gasol, Odom, Bynum. But it looks more and more likely that they will get either or both Paul or Howard. If they get Howard and keep Gasol, I believe this is the frontrunner and you will see odds lower than the Heat. If this shortened season, Kobe has less chance of breaking down and should be good to go in the season and Dwight being a monster down low will bring back Kobe/Shaq days.

After that I sprinkled some money on the Thunder/Spurs/Clippers. Thunder at +750, Spurs and Clippers are over +2800. The Thunder I took for obvious reasons as I find them the only true legitimate contender next to the Lakers with their young stars. I added the Spurs with a short season because their older guys probably wont break down as much and will have a shot with Popovich coaching. The Clippers I took based on them potentially getting Paul or a big player through trade. Right now they arent a contender at all.

I did not take the Mavs because I believe that they will have a title hangover and you wont get the same Nowitzki killer instinct. I think he will be more relaxed with that title along with the older guys on that team. I dont believe the Grizz or TrailBlazers are there yet and a big trade might get them over the hump but was not willing to bet on that.

I am not worried about anyone else in the West at this point after the teams mentioned.

So I have the Lakers/Spurs/Thunder/Clippers and to me I think the Western Conference Champion will come from one of the first 3 teams and I believe that right now without any improvements to any of those clubs.

The way its structured is If one of those teams win the NBA championship its pays out from +240 to +380 roughly, which I will take.

I am really banking on those teams to get through the West and I will look at hedge options in the Finals where I will be sitting with +240 at a minimum to play around with. If it's the Heat there, it will be a little tougher, but I think I will have sufficient hedge options.