NBA Draft Prop that can't lose

[KnicksFan1221]

Via sportsbook.ag

This bet cannot lose: Over/Under 5 Big East players taken in Round 1.

Lamb, Drummond, Waiters, Harkless, Melo are all locks. This bet is probably going to end up a push but maybe someone takes a flyer on Crawder, DJO, Hollis Thompson, or Kevin Jones in round one. There was a rumor that Jones had a first round promise but who knows with promises. If you think Melo could slip you could hedge it with over draft position 21.5.

I also like Beal at -160 to be drafted with the #3 pick.

[ericvanden2010]

I have a few that I like as well. I like Seniors under 4.5 (+110), Kentucky under 2.5 Lottery Picks (-110), ACC 1st Rounds under 5.5 (+100) and Duke Players over 2 (+120). Any thoughts on those?

[KnicksFan1221]

Senior one is tough:
Locks: Zeller, Nicholson, Green
50/50: Ezeli, Taylor, T. Taylor,
Then Miller, English, Plumlee could go. I'd probably stay away.

The Kentucky one is basically just Terrence Jones O/U 14. I'd take the over

ACC 1st round:
Locks: Zeller, Henson, Marshall, Barnes, Rivers.
So it's basically is Plumlee, Mike Scott, or Bernard James first rounders? I'd take the under.

The Duke one doesn't make any sense because there are only 2 players that can be drafted (both will). So there is only value on the under but that bet is a push.

[jimmysingh9]

(06-26-2012 12:33 PM)ericvanden2010 Wrote:  I have a few that I like as well. I like Seniors under 4.5 (+110), Kentucky under 2.5 Lottery Picks (-110), ACC 1st Rounds under 5.5 (+100) and Duke Players over 2 (+120). Any thoughts on those?

Hey Eric,

interested in those picks. I see that you like them, can you try to do a breakdown like Knicksfan did so we can analyze what players fit the bill

[arzoman]

This one is a LOCK.

Warriors somehow find a way to waste all of their picks.

Yes -550

[ChiefZilla]

This might be useful. Aggregate of 11 different "expert" mock drafts.

Link: Mock Draft Aggregate

Potential Value bets based on that chart...

1. Harrison Barnes +110 to get drafted before Michael Kidd-Gilchrist -150
2. Bradley Beal -150 to get drafted third overall
3. ACC under 5.5 players selected in first round (even) -- closest thing to a sixth is Miles Plumlee at 46th overall, only 1 of 11 mock drafts have him in first round.

[adutton6]

Am I reading this correct that the limit bet for sportsbook is $25??? So for the ACC under play I can win $13? Superlame. Hopefully this is just some kind of mobile glitch, I'm on my cell.

[SkyBlues42]

(06-27-2012 08:23 AM)adutton6 Wrote:  Am I reading this correct that the limit bet for sportsbook is $25??? So for the ACC under play I can win $13? Superlame. Hopefully this is just some kind of mobile glitch, I'm on my cell.

If that's true, and sportsbook is your only book.. I'd say it's time to find a second option.

[ChiefZilla]

It's not true. I bet more than that on two different bets at sportsbook yesterday. Not sure what's going on with yours, adutton.

[attyg3]

(06-27-2012 08:23 AM)adutton6 Wrote:  Am I reading this correct that the limit bet for sportsbook is $25??? So for the ACC under play I can win $13? Superlame. Hopefully this is just some kind of mobile glitch, I'm on my cell.

They lower the limits late at night, in case any news breaks. Bovada and betonline actually pull them at night. Limits are back up to $100

[adutton6]

Thanks all for info. Must have been an early AM thing, I couldn't find the props at betonline either but everything back up now and limits raised. Time to research.

[adutton6]

Rivers before Henson, both at -115 on betonline. Completely based off that aggregate mock draft page. Rivers is 9, Henson is 12. Anyone have any input, feelings, insight on this play?

[KnicksFan1221]

I guess the pistons really like Henson at 9 but if Drummond falls he's their pick

[Yontsey]

Right now I'm on:

ACC UNDER 5.5
Kentucky under 2.5 in Lottery
UNC over 2.5 in Lottery
Zeller in the Lottery

Edit: Sorry for the typo. Meant ACC UNDER 5.5

[CTA_CAT]

i like the SEC OVER 7 players drafted first round.
1.davis
2. beal
3. mkg
4. t. jones
5. moultrie
6. teague
those 6 are locks for 1st round. now you are telling me that i only need one more out of festus ezili, jeff taylor, john jenkins, doron lamb, or darius miller to be picked in the 1st just to push? i think two of those guys get in the 1st round, probably jeff taylor and doron lamb, but wouldn't be shocked if 3 of those guys snuck in to give the SEC 9 guys.

which brings me to my second favorite prop, which is UK over 4.5 in 1st round (+200), because i think theres a pretty good chance that either doron lamb or darius miller are picked 1st round (I'm looking at you, OKC). locked in T. Jones under 17.5 as there are heavy talks of Philly at 15 not passing on him. Honestly, i would stay away from the UK players in the lottery UNDER 2.5 bet because there is pretty good chance that T. Jones ends up in that top 14, but we will see.

So after all that, my favorites basically revolve around UK:

1. OVER 7 SEC players in 1st round (-170)
2. OVER 4.5 UK players in 1st round (+200)
3. T. Jones under 17.5 (-120)

also a play on Harrison Barnes ahead of MKG (+220)...Looks like HB and MKG could go 4 and 5, respectively.

[VincentValour]

Like Barnes ahead of MKG, good value.

Also when we did the NFL draft thread there were pre-draft trade leaks. So keep your twitters open and follow the beat writers and NBA insider guys. It could get interesting right before the draft starts.

[ChiefZilla]

(06-27-2012 10:40 PM)Yontsey Wrote:  Right now I'm on:

ACC over 5.5
Kentucky under 2.5 in Lottery
UNC over 2.5 in Lottery
Zeller in the Lottery

What ACC player do you think is sneaking into the first round, Yontsey?

[Yontsey]

(06-28-2012 08:13 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(06-27-2012 10:40 PM)Yontsey Wrote:  Right now I'm on:

ACC over 5.5
Kentucky under 2.5 in Lottery
UNC over 2.5 in Lottery
Zeller in the Lottery

What ACC player do you think is sneaking into the first round, Yontsey?

Oops. I meant under. I apologize. I was half asleep when I sent that.

Rivers, Henson, Barnes, Zeller, and Marshall are locks. I don't think it would happen, but I could see Plumlee sneak in the end of the 1st round because teams always seem to be enamored with athletic big men, even though I personally cannot stand Plumlee. Hell, Daniel Orton was a 1st rounder. Anything could happen.

I don't think Terrance Jones will be a lottery. I'm one of the biggest Kentucky fans you'll find around, and as much as I want him to go in the lottery, I don't believe it'll happen. I think he should, but I see him landing between 15-20.

[CTA_CAT]

(06-28-2012 12:38 AM)CTA_CAT Wrote:  i like the SEC OVER 7 players drafted first round.
1.davis
2. beal
3. mkg
4. t. jones
5. moultrie
6. teague
those 6 are locks for 1st round. now you are telling me that i only need one more out of jeff taylor, john jenkins, doron lamb, or darius miller to be picked in the 1st just to push? i think two of those guys get in the 1st round, probably jeff taylor and doron lamb.

which brings me to my second favorite prop, which is UK over 4.5 in 1st round (+200), because i think theres a pretty good chance that either doron lamb or darius miller are picked 1st round (I'm looking at you, OKC). locked in T. Jones under 17.5 as there are heavy talks of Philly at 15 not passing on him. Honestly, i would stay away from the UK players in the lottery UNDER 2.5 bet because there is pretty good chance that T. Jones ends up in that top 14, but we will see.

So after all that, my favorites basically revolve around UK:

1. OVER 7 SEC players in 1st round (-170)
2. OVER 4.5 UK players in 1st round (+200)
3. T. Jones under 17.5 (-120)

also a play on Harrison Barnes ahead of MKG (+220)...Looks like HB and MKG could go 4 and 5, respectively.

added damian lillard drafted before andre drummond (+100) because it looks like lillard could go as high as 6 or 7 to portland or golden state, which would likely cause drummond to fall to #9. like the value there.

[KnicksFan1221]

Adding big east players +.5 vs acc players -.5 in the first round (-150)