Monday MLB

[BetATL]

Let's discuss.

I'll have some stuff up a little later this afternoon.

[seneca15krookk]

keep taking the dogs at +150 or better until the end of the month the market is inefficient still

[ChiefZilla]

[DOP]

i already posted SD +135. Baltimore was +125 earlier. I dont think MCCarthy should be +185 either considering LA is playing the late game in NY tonight. and I believe Washington opened -280

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'll go back to the well with Det-KC over 7.5. Detroit can get them all themselves and KC can hit a little too. KC needs a big outing from this kid to save an overworked bullpen.

[JSpauny]

The one play I like is Boston. It's a model play that's backed up by past history as well.

Shields has gotten his pretty well by the current group of BoSox players. Ortiz, Aviles, and Sweeney all have OPSs over 1.000 against Shields in 10 PAs or more. Pedroia's OPS is .819 and Gonzo's is .871. Pedroia and Ortiz both have samples over 50 PAs so the same size is quite adequate. The only BoSox regular that Shields has shutdown with more than 10 PAs is Youk. Youk has an OPS of .522 against Shields. But that's it. Shields is also a worse pitcher on the road (has higher ERA, FIP and xFIP on the road in career).

I don't trust either bullpen. Think this is a game in which a lot of runs will be scored, just think Boston can score more.

[ChiefZilla]

(04-15-2012 06:17 PM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  I'll go back to the well with Det-KC over 7.5. Detroit can get them all themselves and KC can hit a little too. KC needs a big outing from this kid to save an overworked bullpen.

That's four straight overs for KC games. As predicted, this team can hit pretty decently but can't pitch worth a lick.

[acfrahm]

I like White Sox at -121. This team is better than they have gotten credit for so far and this number seems short. For those playing the A's based on them having the late game, word is that Weaver flew back to Anaheim before the game last night, so he should be rested. Under might be the better play.

[BetATL]

Don't really get the line move in the Dads, Rockies game. I just pulled the trigger on the Rockies.

Padres not playing good ball having lost 4 straight, Rockies coming off a solid series win against the NL West favorite D'Backs.

Leubke is struggling with his control right now and I'm looking for Guthrie to bounce back after a rough start against the Giants.

Would like to see Cargo in the lineup tonight though. Thoughts on this one?

[SkyBlues42]

It was unfortunate that the Padres had to play two series against the Dodgers to start the year. Los Angeles has owned them in the past, and nothing has changed so far in 2012. I think that's why you see the movement. Not convinced that the 4-game losing streak to the Dodgers tells a lot of this Padres team.

But you really can't go wrong with a Rockies bet. San Diego's lineup is still a question mark that will likely be a concern all season.

[DOP]

(04-16-2012 09:23 AM)BetATL Wrote:  Don't really get the line move in the Dads, Rockies game. I just pulled the trigger on the Rockies.

Padres not playing good ball having lost 4 straight, Rockies coming off a solid series win against the NL West favorite D'Backs.

Leubke is struggling with his control right now and I'm looking for Guthrie to bounce back after a rough start against the Giants.

Would like to see Cargo in the lineup tonight though. Thoughts on this one?

For me, I dont know how to justify that Guthrie would bounce back and not Luebke. I dont know if they'll rush CarGo back considering it'd be a LHP v LHB matchup. In my opinion, Luebke is the better pitcher and the SD team in underrated. It took a freak bunt triple play to keep them from beating Kershaw.

The line is much tighter now but when it posted at +135, it was a no-brainer.

[BetATL]

Monday's NL market movers.

Astros - Opened +250, down to +230
Padres - Opened +135, down to +111
Pirates - Opened +140, down to +117
Phillies - Opened -105, up to -117

Houston/Washington - Opened at 7, down to 6.5 (-120)

[JayPrimetown]

Hard not to like Halladay at these odds.

Baltimore seems tempting to me as well. Arrieta is ok... White Sox are so-so.

Bedard-Saunders Under 8.5 at plus money... Anyone have any insight into this?

[JSpauny]

(04-16-2012 01:27 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  Bedard-Saunders Under 8.5 at plus money... Anyone have any insight into this?

My guess is it's ball park related combined with the 3 games to start the season. In 2011 Chase was the 5th best hitters park with a Run # of 1.146. So far this year all 3 went over with at least 9 runs in each game also in situations with "should be" good pitching matchups (it was ARI top 3 SPs vs SF top 3 SPs). Makes sense that people would continue to ride that small streak.

[JSpauny]

For any Boston backers out there (myself included) this sure will make you happy.

Here are the 5 pitches to Cody Ross at the end of the game. 5 balls with 3 of them called strikes. Unreal.



Here's the deadspin article http://deadspin.com/5902405/?utm_campaig...socialflow

[ChicosBailBonds]

(04-16-2012 01:41 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  

(04-16-2012 01:27 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  Bedard-Saunders Under 8.5 at plus money... Anyone have any insight into this?

My guess is it's ball park related combined with the 3 games to start the season. In 2011 Chase was the 5th best hitters park with a Run # of 1.146. So far this year all 3 went over with at least 9 runs in each game also in situations with "should be" good pitching matchups (it was ARI top 3 SPs vs SF top 3 SPs). Makes sense that people would continue to ride that small streak.

If the roof is closed, i like it. Passing if the roof is open.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(04-16-2012 08:17 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(04-15-2012 06:17 PM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  I'll go back to the well with Det-KC over 7.5. Detroit can get them all themselves and KC can hit a little too. KC needs a big outing from this kid to save an overworked bullpen.

That's four straight overs for KC games. As predicted, this team can hit pretty decently but can't pitch worth a lick.

I like riding streaks on totals. Betting against tired bullpens is a no-brainer for me.

[johnny00]

Hi guys... just joined this forum recently and saw the discussion...

I may have a good dog play today on the New York Mets +155 ... They`ve had several yoyo games lately so this can be a solid play for a great value...

Anybody else with more suggestions?

Thanx!

[zkr4]

Johnny welcome dude, that mets ML play looks good to this Braves fan. Mets just swept the Braves a couple series ago, their pitching has been very good, both starting and relief. Braves bats have heated up and they're on a 5 game winning streak, I believe thats got the line inflated a little. Also, tonight Freeman and Pastornicky are both out of the starting lineup for ATL. Their replacements are not as good offensively, and one's defense (Eric Hinske) is significantly worse while the SS (Jack Wilson) defense is moderately better. Just a couple thoughts. As always, GL. Oh yeah, one other thought I feel needs to be brought up....Chipper has absolutely killed the Mets throughout his career, and wasn't available for any of the first three games, but is starting tonight. Kinda goes against the play, but I felt it was worth noting. GL

[johnny00]

(04-16-2012 05:34 PM)zkr4 Wrote:  Johnny welcome dude, that mets ML play looks good to this Braves fan. Mets just swept the Braves a couple series ago, their pitching has been very good, both starting and relief. Braves bats have heated up and they're on a 5 game winning streak, I believe thats got the line inflated a little. Also, tonight Freeman and Pastornicky are both out of the starting lineup for ATL. Their replacements are not as good offensively, and one's defense (Eric Hinske) is significantly worse while the SS (Jack Wilson) defense is moderately better. Just a couple thoughts. As always, GL. Oh yeah, one other thought I feel needs to be brought up....Chipper has absolutely killed the Mets throughout his career, and wasn't available for any of the first three games, but is starting tonight. Kinda goes against the play, but I felt it was worth noting. GL

Thanx for the welcome! :)

Yes, you have some good points there, but we`ll see ... didn`t put much $ on this play, but it would be nice if it wins, and if you take the starting lineup into consideration, it can actually happen!
Good luck to you also!