Monday College Basketball

[RyanParrill]

This information comes from ESPN and websites from some of the smaller schools. I saw there were some lines out for tomorrow night so figured I'd throw a few notes down with some thoughts. Let's discuss...

Northeastern (1-0) @ Massachusetts (1-0, -4.5) – Northeastern had a season opening win over Boston University in overtime. Lead by Joel Smith who had 20 points and 12 boards. They shot 45% and 22/27 from the FT line. UMass won 85-67 over Elon while transfer Chaz Williams had 18 points with 8 assists. Terrell Vinson added 17 point and 11 points with Sampson Carter also contributing 17. They outscored Elon 46-24 in the 2nd half and seem to have an advantage with distribution coming from a few different places.

Temple (0-0, -11) @ Penn (1-0) – The Penn Quakers opened their season with a 59-45 win over Maryland-Baltimore County behind Zach Rosen’s 26 points. The Quakers continued their good defense to build upon their 28-25 halftime lead. Temple has made the tournament 4 straight seasons and won a game last year. They will battle Xavier as the team to beat in the Atlantic-10.

Manhattan (1-0) @ Syracuse (1-0, -26) – Syracuse allowed just 34.6% shooting from Fordham in a 78-53 win. Syracuse has won 23 straight non-conference home games by an average of 24. Manhattan beat the New Jersey Institute of Technology 62-48. They had a double-double from George Beamon with 15 points and 10 boards, although they shot 2/20 from 3. I believe Syracuse will be able to stop Beamon and continue to expose Manhattan’s poor outside shooting. There may be some value at -26.

UNC-Greensboro (0-1) @ Georgetown (1-0, -20.5) – UNCG opened with a 92-63 loss to Tennessee. They return 9/10 top players but struggled all game behind Korey Van Dussen’s 12 points. Derrell Armstrong and Trevis Simpson added 10 each. This is a team that lost 15 straight games to start last season but finished 7-9. Georgetown will hope to continue their non-brawling ways on American soil after beating Savannah 83-54 behind SR Henry Sims’ 19 points. Sims is 1 of 2 seniors with a lot of SO and FR. This could end up in a blowout, but definitely will stay away from it.

Marist (0-1) @ South Florida (1-0, -17.5) – Mairst opened with a beating delivered by Kentucky 108-58 after only being down 45-36 at half. Isaiah Morton scored 13 and Dorvell Carter finished with 12. Ron Anderson Jr. had 16 points and nine rebounds, leading South Florida to a 61-59 victory against Vermont in the season opener for both teams. USF shot 40% and were 54% from the FT line. They somehow poured in 8/13 3 pointers. Marist was able to keep it close to Kentucky for a half, may be some value in them.

Furman (1-0) @ Columbia (0-1, -4.5) – Brandon Sebirumbi had a double-double, 15 points and a career-high 11 rebounds to lead Furman past Division3 Roanoke College 75-49 on Friday night. Bryant Irwin had 14 points and two blocks while Charlie Reddick had 11 points and two blocks. Noruwa Agho had 16 points for Columbia in their 57-70 loss to UConn. They have 4 starters back but struggled shooting going 29% for their FG and 3PT% and 6/8 from FT line. Columbia may prove to be too much for Furman but the battle inside could yield an upset.

Providence (1-0) @ Fairfield (1-0, -7.5) – Providence beat Fairleigh Dickinson 72-61 behing Gerard Coleman’s 18 points off of the bench, executing the exact role he’s been designated. First game for Cooley, coach of Providence, who now faces his former team, Fairfield. Much like Providence, Fairfield pulled away late for a 72-60 win over Quinnipiac. Maurice Barrow led them with 19 points. Fairfield led by as many as 15 in each half but weren’t able to keep the distance. Could they, specifically Cooley, set Providence up for an upset win?

Indiana State (1-0, -11.5) @ Louisiana-Monroe (0-1) - Indiana State had 4 players in double figures and were 29/36 from FT line to defeat Eastern Illinois 79-72. LA-Monroe were led by 7 points out of Fred Brown in a 38-60 loss to Ole Miss. If I had to pick a side, it’d be Indiana State, especially how well they shoot FT’s; but could be an upset in the making.

Loyola Chicago (0-1) @ Kansas State (1-0, -17.5) – Loyola lost to Illinois 67-49 behind poor shooting from all areas. Walt Gibbler poured in the most points with 19, 15 coming in the 2nd half. Rodney McGruder scored 18 points to lead a big second-half charge, Will Spradling was solid from FT line and Kansas State held off Charleston Southern 72-67, surviving a big scare from the school from the Big South. Spradling finished with 15 points, and Jordan Henriquez and Shane Southwell each added 11 for the Wildcats, who trailed by as many as 15 in the second half before using a big run and some stingy half-court pressure defense to win.

Milwaukee (1-0, -10) @ Northern Illinois (0-1) – Milwaukee hung onto their 9-point halftime lead to beat Southwest St-Minnesota 71-65 with double-figures from 4 players. They were 35% from the field and 40% from 3-pt range. Tim Toler had 11 points for Northern Illinois in their opening stomping from Purdue, 34-96. Staying away from this one is probably the safe play, but 10 points may be a lot for Northern Illinois, who’s getting acquainted to their first year coach.

Southern Methodist (1-0) @ Colorado State (1-0, -4.5) – Robert Nyakundi scored 18 to lead SMU to a season-opening 78-49 victory over McMurry. Nyakundi also had a team-high eight rebounds. London Giles had 12 points and Jalen Jones scored 11 for SMU. The Mustangs led 43-27 at halftime and made 13 of 31 tries from 3-point range in the game. Wes Eikmeier scored 21, including 10/10 from FT line, as Colorado State held off Montana 64-58. Pierce Hornung had his second career double-double with 10 points and 12 rebounds for the Rams, who had a decided rebounding advantage at 43-24 and made 22/29 FT’s. Some firepower being matched up here and I may lean towards the upset.

Tennessee State (0-1) @ Western Kentucky (0-1, -3) – Robert Covington led Tennessee State with nine points in a 37-71 ass-beating from Saint Louis. The Tigers shot 29.8 percent from the field for the game -- their worst shooting performance since hitting 27.6 percent at Colorado on Dec. 19, 2003 -- and committed 22 turnovers. The 37 points were the lowest total for a Tennessee State team since 1970. Western Kentucky lost to Saint Joeseph’s 72-61 behind 25 point from Derrick Gordon. WKU trailed all game and were terrible from the floor, shooting 26.5% and 21% from 3-pt. Someone needs a strong lean for a play here because you’d have to be paid to watch this.

Richmond (1-0) @ Davidson (1-0, -4.5) - Anthony Kendall scored 16 of his 20 points in the 2nd half as Richmond rallied to defeat American University 66-56, after being down 29-25 at half. The Spiders, 27/33 from FT line, lost their top 3 scorers from last season's Sweet 16 team, took control with a 9-0 run that gave them a 47-39 lead with 7:38 remaining. Davidson played a gimme game against the D3 Guilford Quakers that are just down the road from me. They had 6 players in double figures led by De’Mon Brooks who had 24. I’m not sure there’s a play on either side, but possibly on the over.

Towson (0-1) @ Michigan (1-0, -26.5) – Towson lost to Kansas 100-56 and committed 23 turnovers while shooting 35%. Michigan was slow coming out of the gate against D2 Ferris St but used their defense to finally put together some offensive efficiency in the 2nd half. This could get out of hand for a 26.5 point cover but I believe a safer play would be a Towson under bet.

SIU Edwardsville (0-0) @ Illinois (1-0, -34) – This is the opener for SIU-Edwardsville, coming off a 8-21 season. This may be one of their most-experienced teams but they’re picked last in the Ohio Valley conference. Meyers Leonard scored 15 points and had six blocks and Brandon Paul added 14 points to lead Illinois to a 67-49 season-opening win over Loyola Chicago. Leonard, a 7-foot-1 sophomore, had nine points by halftime and hit the first 3-pointer of his career for the Illini. Paul overcame a cold-shooting first half in which he scored two points to lead Illinois. If there’s a play, it’s probably on Illinois to beat them down.

Detroit (1-0) @ Notre Dame (1-0, -7.5) – Detroit brings in a team that beat Lake Erie College 95-57 behind 60% shooting. Detroit was clearly the better team, and this will face a much more formidable opponent in ND, but this team can compete. 5 out 8 players that received court-time were in double figures and both Nick Minnerath and Chase Simon had over 20 points with Ray McCallum adding 15 and dishing 7 assists. Eric Atkins scored a career-high 27 points as Notre Dame held off visiting Mississippi Valley State 80-67. With Tim Abromaitis out still and ND not being the best, I think there’s serious value in Detroit.

Florida International @ George Mason (1-0, -15) – Florida International opens their season on the road, with Isiah Thomas still acting like their coach. People keep leaving and not showing up, but Thomas is optimistic, or drunk, about his team. As for GMU, Ryan Pearson scored 28 points and grabbed 12 rebounds, and Paul Hewitt won his debut game as George Mason's head coach in a 92-90 victory in OT against Rhode Island. Although they shot 51.4% from the field, they were 2/14 from 3-pt and 16/28 from the FT line. I’d never bet on a team coached by Thomas and I’m not sure George Mason is good enough to bet either. Rock meet hard place.

Nevada (0-1) @ UNLV (1-0, -14) – Nevada lost their opener to Missouri State 68-46 behind Kevin Panzer’s 10 points to lead the Wolf Pack, which shot 13/50 from the field, including 5/25 from 3-point range. Justin Hawkins scored 25 points and Mike Moser had 16 points and 20 rebounds in his UNLV debut as the Rebels opened the season with an 83-66 win over D2 Grand Canyon. It was also the debut for coach Dave Rice. I believe there’s a good chance UNLV runs away with this one.

UC Irvine (0-1) @ San Jose State (0-1, -7.5) – Chris McNealy scored 14 points for the overmatched Anteaters, losing 56-77 to Cal. They shot 39.3% and were outrebounded 47-28. UC Irvine FR Will Davis II had double-doubles in both of the Anteaters' 2exhibition wins -- averaging 11.5 points and 10.5 rebounds -- but went 4/14 from the floor for 8 points to go with 9 rebounds. Coach Turner has one of the country's youngest rosters with only five returning players, eight freshmen and no seniors. Keith Shamburger had 13 points and Wil Carter 12 for the SJSU Spartans in a 52-79 loss to Cal Poly. UC Irvine may not have the experience but SJSU appears very beatable.

Nebraska (1-0) @ USC (1-0, Pick ‘Em) – Caleb Walker scored a career-high 16 points to lead Nebraska to a 65-48 win over South Dakota. Nebraska struggled to score in the half court against South Dakota's zone defense. But it got several easy baskets in transition, which Sadler hopes will be a regular occurrence this season. They were 12/19 from the FT line and gave the ball up 18 times. Jorge Brian Diaz had 11 points for Nebraska, and Brandon Richardson and Talley added 10 points each. Maurice Jones scored 8 of USC's final 12 points to lead the Trojans to a 66-59 victory over Cal State Northridge. Jones finished with 11 points, but the Trojans were led by Aaron Fuller and Dewayne Dedmon, who netted 16 points each. I may have a B1G natural-bias, but I lean Nebraska on this one.

Fresno State (1-0) @ Stanford (1-0, -13) – Kevin Olekaibe scored 14 of his game-high 18 points in the second half as Fresno State rallied for a 55-47 nonconference victory over Illinois State. Kevin Foster added 8 points and 6 rebounds. Stanford opened the season with a 91-52 victory over Central Arkansas that had 5 players in double figures, led with 16 by Aaron Bright. Stanford may very well run away with this one.

Northern Iowa (1-0) @ Saint Mary’s California (1-0, -10.5) – Jake Koch scored 18 points in Northern Iowa's 63-46 victory over Old Dominion. Anthony James had 13 and Marc Sonnen added 12 from the bench. Rob Jones had a career-high 25 points and 12 rebounds and Saint Mary's shot a scorching 56% from the field in a 98-58 rout of Fresno Pacific. Clint Steindl added 14 points on 4/7 3-point shooting off the bench for the Gaels, who have four starters returning from last year's team that was left out of the NCAA Tournament field despite a 25-9 record and a West Coast Conference co-championship. This seems like a pretty good line that I have no lean on.

[Beyond the Bets]

Wow, can you do this for every game of every day for the entire season? My eyes are glossed over now because I'm tired, but I'll look this over in the morning.

Seriously, how long did this take you?

[Black Mamba]

I see you listed serious value in Detroit. That is actually my only bet heading into tomorrow, good value and will probably try to add on the ML tomorrow afternoon.

Good luck RP and thanks for posting your thoughts.

[RyanParrill]

(11-13-2011 11:59 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Wow, can you do this for every game of every day for the entire season? My eyes are glossed over now because I'm tired, but I'll look this over in the morning.

Seriously, how long did this take you?

Haha, I can do a lot of things, especially if my days with the books will continue to go this well. It probably took around a couple hours. Tough to say with a dog and other distractions.

[oddsok]

Holy crap Parrill nice work! I appreciate any info that I can get as I start out.

[RyanParrill]

No significant movement on anything. The only thing that has moved over .5 point is Stanford, now at -14.

And if you have no interest in reading all of that and are curious of the plays, here are my thoughts for tonight...

Syracuse -26
Illinois -34
Marist +17.5
Detroit +7.5
Richmond/Davidson Over
Towson Under

Leans: UNLV -14, Stanford -13, and UC Irvine +7.5

Underdog Winners:
Furman +175
Providence +270
SMU +170

[quhawks12]

(11-14-2011 09:52 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  And if you have no interest in reading all of that and are curious of the plays, here are my thoughts for tonight...


Illinois -34

Beware on this big number. Not saying Illini won't cover but this team is YOUNG with 7 newcomers on the roster. In 3 games so far (2 exhibitions) Illini have started SLOW. REAL SLOW. So if another slow start happens it could be touch to get to -34. Just an FYI.

[shavz77]

Great work on the write ups, I agree with BTB if you could do this often that would be great.

[RyanParrill]

(11-14-2011 10:15 AM)quhawks12 Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 09:52 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  And if you have no interest in reading all of that and are curious of the plays, here are my thoughts for tonight...


Illinois -34

Beware on this big number. Not saying Illini won't cover but this team is YOUNG with 7 newcomers on the roster. In 3 games so far (2 exhibitions) Illini have started SLOW. REAL SLOW. So if another slow start happens it could be touch to get to -34. Just an FYI.

Something to consider gentlemen, thanks for the feedback hawks.

[mount187]

(11-14-2011 10:28 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 10:15 AM)quhawks12 Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 09:52 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  And if you have no interest in reading all of that and are curious of the plays, here are my thoughts for tonight...


Illinois -34

Beware on this big number. Not saying Illini won't cover but this team is YOUNG with 7 newcomers on the roster. In 3 games so far (2 exhibitions) Illini have started SLOW. REAL SLOW. So if another slow start happens it could be touch to get to -34. Just an FYI.

Something to consider gentlemen, thanks for the feedback hawks.

One other thing I've noticed with young teams early this season: they have a tendency to realize, "We're good, and this game is over, so let's just coast these last 5 min and go [do something else, probably get laid]." Games that were 18-20 pt leads have turned into 12-14 point leads in a lot of games.

[ChiefZilla]

(11-14-2011 11:18 AM)mount187 Wrote:  One other thing I've noticed with young teams early this season: they have a tendency to realize, "We're good, and this game is over, so let's just coast these last 5 min and go [do something else, probably get laid]." Games that were 18-20 pt leads have turned into 12-14 point leads in a lot of games.

See: UNC -17 yesterday. Up by 20 or so, wins by 16.

[mount187]

(11-14-2011 11:35 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(11-14-2011 11:18 AM)mount187 Wrote:  One other thing I've noticed with young teams early this season: they have a tendency to realize, "We're good, and this game is over, so let's just coast these last 5 min and go [do something else, probably get laid]." Games that were 18-20 pt leads have turned into 12-14 point leads in a lot of games.

See: UNC -17 yesterday. Up by 20 or so, wins by 16.

Arizona earlier, up 20 on a -17, won by 9.

UNC almost let it get away late against MSU as well, but that had more of a feeling of the game being like an exhibition rather than young players letting down.

*I can't believe none of the scrubs even got a shot up on that last possession for UNC yesterday. I thought for sure one of them was either going to get fouled shooing or throw something in to claim his moment of glory. That was an unacceptable ending from the non-scholarshippers.

[mount187]

greymatterstats.com is projecting a final score of Towson 65, Michigan 72 in a game that's a 26.5 point spread. Is this due to it being early in the season and the stats not having a chance to work into a usable state yet? Any thoughts?

[Beyond the Bets]

What are the numbers based on?

[mount187]

I just contacted @greymatterstats to find out. I'm not sure if it's based off of just this season's stats, or if it has some sort of historical context to it. Hopefully I'll know soon.

[Edit] *Non related: they also have KSU winning by 10 @ Texas this weekend, so their information must be fool-proof.

[lindetrain]

This is outstanding. There's no way I could expect you to do this every day for the whole season, but even if you could do it for the rest of the month or so (until we get familiar with everyone), that would be excellent. Thanks for putting the time in.

[quhawks12]

(11-14-2011 12:07 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  Haha, I can do a lot of things, especially if my days with the books will continue to go this well. It probably took around a couple hours. Tough to say with a dog and other distractions.

You going to do this for the 24 hour marathon?? haha!

[RyanParrill]

Hey BTB, is Towson going to score against the Beilein Boys tonight?!?!

7 minutes in....15-0.

[Beyond the Bets]

Yes.

[RyanParrill]

(11-14-2011 09:16 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Yes.

Good call, they did.