MLB -- Undervalued Starting Pitchers

[DOP]

I would call Matt Harrison underrated if he weren't on the Rangers. His numbers have been great since the start of last year but that lineup takes away all his value.

[zkr4]

(04-14-2012 10:11 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(04-14-2012 10:05 AM)zkr4 Wrote:  Sorry Handicapper, you've had great, informative posts that I have learned from, but please dude for the love of God don't put you're confidence in that prick Derek Lowe.

Why not? Had a 3.37 BB/9 last year, second highest of his career, that's unlikely to continue. Didn't have a great defense behind him (not that he does here either). He's walked 1 guy in 13.2 IP so far and has induced 30 GB outs. Indians radio guys said yesterday that Lowe had problems with the heat in Atlanta, said he likes being in cooler climates. They didn't expand on that, but I imagine it has something to do with his endurance and his ability to grip the baseball. Those humid conditions aren't helpful for a sinker baller. That's how they throw flat sinkers and get under their delivery.

His ERA to FIP/xFIP told me all I needed to know. Even with his second highest walk rate, his FIP was a run and a half lower than his ERA.

Loved that trade when it was made last November, love it even more now.

Doesn't hold a whole lot of fantasy value, but you know he'll be underrated in the betting market, at least for a few more starts. I doubt many people think this is anything more than a fluke. His stuff is dancing through the first two starts. He looked rejuvenated.

He'll frustrate you as a bettor because sometimes balls won't be hit right at guys, but he's going to battle, and that's what you want, especially if he's a plus-money dog.

Yes, he had endurance problems, he had problems even getting past the 5th inning last year(the last couple years actually). Braves actually got to a point where they'd leave him in there to implode, I guess trying to convince Front Office people he is no longer a legit option in our rotation.

No disrespect, but I hope the dude falls flat on his face. That's personal though, I've met the dude and he is a first-rate mf'er. But that's not the only reason I post against him.

I'm going on the eye test here, I have watched 120+ games a year for forever, but especially the past few years. I've seen too many times, and not just home starts with the southern heat, d lowe will QUIT. He has bad body language, he hangs that sinker too much and it'll look like fireworks right out his hand.

Not trying to trash your team dude, but we give up a former World Series standout for nothing pretty much and still ate $10mil and the city of ATL celebrated that day.

But I will say this, no emotion involved, if he has anything left in the tank, he goes through these 2-4 game stretches where that sinker is NASTY. If you see he has a really good grip in a start, and the Indians are playing with a good infield defense, it may be worth taking a stab with him at +money. GL

[zkr4]

(04-14-2012 10:27 AM)DOP Wrote:  I would call Matt Harrison underrated if he weren't on the Rangers. His numbers have been great since the start of last year but that lineup takes away all his value.

Man ain't that the truth. They've got sticks on that bench I'd love to have lol.

[SkyBlues42]

Bedard will continue to be undervalued, I think, but playing on Pitt might keep him in the red for units won/lost. Two good starts already, zero wins. Pirates have scored just 1 run in his two outings.

[DOP]

(04-14-2012 10:48 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Bedard will continue to be undervalued, I think, but playing on Pitt might keep him in the red for units won/lost. Two good starts already, zero wins. Pirates have scored just 1 run in his two outings.

I'd play U6.5 (with juice!) if Bedard pitched against Jordan Zimmermann today but I wouldnt be surprised if Bedard wins < 10 and Zimmermann wins < 12. Its getting harder and harder for SP to win games b/c of lowering scoring.

[LiamMKelly]

James McDonald, Pirates. Solid K numbers and for his career has almost a run lower ERA at PNC Park (4.04 overall vs 3.15 in PIT).

[JSpauny]

(04-14-2012 10:48 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Bedard will continue to be undervalued, I think, but playing on Pitt might keep him in the red for units won/lost. Two good starts already, zero wins. Pirates have scored just 1 run in his two outings.

Agreed.

I think Bedard, Masterson, Luebke, Volquez and McCarthy are all in danger of being in red units because their offenses aren't good enough to get them necessary runs.

So far Masterson, Bedard, and Volquez have all been let down by either their offense or bullpen after turning in a solid start.

[ChiefZilla]

I'm still keeping my eye on Bedard. I think that Pirates offense will pick up, and no way he'll keep losing 2-1 or 1-0 games.

Then again, he'll probably be injured by the time the offense comes around.

[SkyBlues42]

(04-14-2012 11:39 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  I'm still keeping my eye on Bedard. I think that Pirates offense will pick up, and no way he'll keep losing 2-1 or 1-0 games.

Then again, he'll probably be injured by the time the offense comes around.

Wouldn't surprise me.

[wvutime5]

Might be my Mets biast but I think Niese (NYM) will be one of the top pitchers per unit. Mets seem to always score runs for him and I think he has a pretty good season if he stays healthy.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(04-14-2012 10:56 AM)JSpauny Wrote:  

(04-14-2012 10:48 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Bedard will continue to be undervalued, I think, but playing on Pitt might keep him in the red for units won/lost. Two good starts already, zero wins. Pirates have scored just 1 run in his two outings.

Agreed.

I think Bedard, Masterson, Luebke, Volquez and McCarthy are all in danger of being in red units because their offenses aren't good enough to get them necessary runs.

So far Masterson, Bedard, and Volquez have all been let down by either their offense or bullpen after turning in a solid start.

That's ok because there is plenty of value with these pitchers betting unders and 5-inning lines.

[JSpauny]

Word chico. No doubt unders might be pretty frequent for those guys. Especially in road games when the number isn't auto deflated because of sd or oakland.

Not to push more work on anyone, but that might be something to track/keep an eye on. Could prove profitable to under bet the undervalued SPs who are coupled with a bad offense.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(04-14-2012 04:51 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  Word chico. No doubt unders might be pretty frequent for those guys. Especially in road games when the number isn't auto deflated because of sd or oakland.

Not to push more work on anyone, but that might be something to track/keep an eye on. Could prove profitable to under bet the undervalued SPs who are coupled with a bad offense.

I play a lot of 5-inning unders (a lot of totals in general) with these pitchers. More than one way to beat the man.

[ChiefZilla]

Anyone know of a way to track past teams on their 5-inning performance? Can't find a website that tracks that.

[ChiefZilla]

Updated through 4/29/12. (see first post) Really not bad overall, especially from the guys who received multiple votes in this thread.

[SkyBlues42]

I think we can eliminate some of the players from this list. Mike Leake, for example. He's a clown.

[Wiseguy]

When does Zambrano get added? He has been unreal, just no support or help from his pen, 3 bs in his starts.

[jimmysingh9]

I would have added Henderson Alvarez for the Blue Jays but after his last couple of good performance, not sure if the books adjust. He goes tomorrow vs Rays.

[jimmysingh9]

The Parker kid from Oakland has put up some solid #'s so far this year in all his starts. Add to the fact that he plays for Oakland and you might be able to get some value there.

[JayPrimetown]

Still feel much of the Orioles staff is undervalued... hard not to be a fan of Hammel. I also like Vargas from Seattle... Seattle as a team I think is much better than many expected.

As of today, the Cubs have 3 of the top 40 ERA starting pitchers in MLB. Who would of thought that?