MLB -- Undervalued Starting Pitchers

[ChiefZilla]

Any ideas what pitchers are flying under the radar entering this season?

Love getting good pitchers as either plus money or even small favorites.

Last year, for instance, Ian Kennedy came out of nowhere to be baseball's most profitable pitcher.

I don't play fantasy baseball, so I'm sure you guys have more insight than me regarding which pitchers are under the radar and could be good bets.

So what ya got?

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EDIT: I've provided the list below. Will try to keep track of their +/- units and place it up here at the top of the thread for everyone to see.

(LAST UPDATE: 7/5/12)
3 votes -- Brandon Beachy (ATL) -0.28 units
3 votes -- Mike Minor (ATL) -1.17 units
2 votes -- Erik Bedard (PIT) -3.57 units
2 votes -- Cory Luebke (SD) +3.24 units
2 votes -- Johan Santana (NYM) +1.81 units
2 votes -- Vance Worley (PHI) -4.44 units
2 votes -- Jordan Zimmerman (WAS) +2.03 units
Madison Bumgarner (SF) +4.78 units
Ryan Dempster (CHC) -0.97 units
R.A. Dickey (NYM) +11.92 units
Yovani Gallardo (MIL) -1.29 units
Jaime Garcia (STL) -4.65 units
Zack Greinke (MIL) +5.79 units
Daniel Hudson (ARI) +0.16 units
Tim Hudson (ATL) +4.30 units
Josh Johnson (MIA) +0.34 units
Mike Leake (CIN) -3.67 units
Shaun Marcum (MIL) -4.91 units
Justin Masterson (CLE) -3.58 units
Brandon McCarthy (OAK) +5.17 units
Luis Mendoza (KC) -0.28 units
Brandon Morrow (TOR) +1.35 units
Juan Nicasio (COL) -2.01 units
Anibal Sanchez (MIA) -4.16 units
Max Scherzer (DET) -0.04 units
Edinson Volquez (SD) -2.17 units

ADDED LATE
Tommy Milone (OAK) +3.60 units
Derek Lowe (CLE) +1.37 units
Gio Gonzalez (WAS) +9.68 units
Jeff Samardzija (CHC) +2.40 units

[SkyBlues42]

Bedard will be good. I know he proved it yesterday, against a sub-par Phillies lineup. But if he can stay healthy, I think he'll have a ton of value when he pitches.

Also think Mike Leake (Cincy) will be valuable.

[JSpauny]

I think Morrow has a huge season. Same with Luebke (who doesn't seem to be flying under the radar as much as I would have hoped).

I would have said it before yesterday, but really like Masterson to have a good year. Yesterday just backs it up. Might not get the run support necessary for wins, but other numbers could be solid.

Really like Mike Minor and Beachy. I say both, because I'm guessing one struggles but the other has a great season.

Would have also said Johan Santana and Bedard before yesterday as well. Both former aces with injury problems. If healthy, I expect good years out of both. Tons of value as well since both are on bad teams.

Two "out of left field" guys I'll be looking to ride this year are Edinson Volquez and Juan Nicasio.

Volquez struggled a bit yesterday, but I can see him doing very well in the comfortable confines of Petco. It plays better with his weaknesses than the launching pad of GAB. Should be able to limit his flyball issues while striking out guys like he did in his good days.

Nicasio's ballpark is a worry, but outside of getting hit in the face with a baseball he had a great start to his career last season. He pitched very well in a small sample size, and now that he's in the rotation I expect him to improve upon where he left off. He did have a 7.04 ERA on the road last year but only a 1.98 ERA at home but if you break that down into FIP and xFIP (better indicators of future success) his numbers were: Home 2.88 FIP & 3.13 xFIP and Away 4.69 FIP & 3.82 xFIP. Those are very good numbers for where his spot in the rotation will come up verses the other teams SP. Think Nicasio could be a valuable pitcher to back this year.

[SkyBlues42]

Beachy will be huge for K's, but I think Minor will have a more productive season. Both good choices, though.

[iKnowNothing]

In no order, pitchers I think will be undervalued this year:
Daniel Hudson (Dbacks)
Jordan Zimmerman (Nats)
Max Scherzer (Tigers)
Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum (Brewers)
Madison Bumgarner (Giants)
Brandon McCarthy (A's)
Cory Luebke (Padres)
Anibal Sanchez (Marlins)
Jaime Garcia at home, fade on road (Cardinals)
Vance Worley (Phillies)

Most of these guys should take steps forward or duplicate their stats from last year.

[zkr4]

Beachy and Minor are both good choices, I like Minor a little more than Beachy, primarily because he's a lefty.

Another Brave is Tim Hudson, he's a gamer and the team always seems to play well behind him and at the plate, he's out until May though.

RA Dickey's knuckleball is hard to hit when he's going good, and nobody seems to be talking about Josh Johnson.....when he's on he's filthy. Johan Santana looked pretty damn good in his debut as well, we'll see if he can stay healthy.

Surely these all can't be good options coming from one division with no Phillies, right? LMAO

[SkyBlues42]

Josh Johnson might not be an option because he's probably not undervalued. Everyone knows his potential and playing the the Marlins won't lower the price either.

[JSpauny]

(04-06-2012 03:11 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Josh Johnson might not be an option because he's probably not undervalued. Everyone knows his potential and playing the the Marlins won't lower the price either.

Agreed. That's why I left off guys like JJ, Hudson and Scherzer. I like all 3, don't get me wrong, but I don't see them being undervalued, especially considering the teams they're on. Got a feeling all 3 are going to be favorites more often than not.

[zkr4]

(04-06-2012 03:11 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Josh Johnson might not be an option because he's probably not undervalued. Everyone knows his potential and playing the the Marlins won't lower the price either.

I feel he's a bit undervalued, not to quite the extent though as some others. He's just a guy that if you can give him one run he'll keep you in it. I think we might can find some plays on him or Marlins in general later on in the season when they're in 3rd or 4th in the division and clearly a disappointment.

[SkyBlues42]

Vance Worley could actually have a better season than either Halladay or Hamels and I wouldn't be surprised. It'll all depend on how comfortable he gets with him cutter -- I think that's his new pitch. If he can equal his performances from last season, run support or not, the Phillies will be a difficult out in the playoffs.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Dempster, probably better for unders. cubs won't score much.

[DOP]

Jordan Zimmerman. His year-end numbers will be better than Strasburg and he'll be lined a lot more favorably.

[ChiefZilla]

Ok, we'll call this BTB's Official List of Undervalued Pitchers. Might be interesting to track these and see how they do this year.

26 pitchers listed ... I'm not sure if some of them are really "undervalued" (guys like Greinke, Gallardo and Josh Johnson), but they could still be profitable for bettors so I left them on the list.

Brandon Beachy (ATL) 3 votes
Mike Minor (ATL) 3 votes
Erik Bedard (PIT) 2 votes
Cory Luebke (SD) 2 votes
Johan Santana (NYM) 2 votes
Vance Worley (PHI) 2 votes
Jordan Zimmerman (WAS) 2 votes
Madison Bumgarner (SF)
Ryan Dempster (CHC)
R.A. Dickey (NYM)
Yovani Gallardo (MIL)
Jaime Garcia (STL) at home, fade on road
Zack Greinke (MIL)
Daniel Hudson (ARI)
Tim Hudson (ATL)
Josh Johnson (MIA)
Mike Leake (CIN)
Shaun Marcum (MIL)
Justin Masterson (CLE)
Brandon McCarthy (OAK)
Luis Mendoza (KC)
Brandon Morrow (TOR)
Juan Nicasio (COL)
Anibal Sanchez (MIA)
Max Scherzer (DET)
Edinson Volquez (SD)

[illadelphia]

(04-06-2012 03:19 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Vance Worley could actually have a better season than either Halladay or Hamels and I wouldn't be surprised. It'll all depend on how comfortable he gets with him cutter -- I think that's his new pitch. If he can equal his performances from last season, run support or not, the Phillies will be a difficult out in the playoffs.

Worley learned the cutter grip from Hamels at the end of the 2010 season. Hamels recently said in an interview that Lee and Halladay use basically the same grip to throw their cut fastballs.

However, I don't think his cutter will be as telling as Worley's sinker.

One of the keys to Worley's rookie success in 2011 -- he went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9 in 131 2/3 innings -- was his ability to freeze hitters with the nasty action on his sinker. Of his 119 strikeouts last season, 55 percent were recorded on called third strikes, by far the highest percentage among National League starters.

For comparison, the only other NL starter to record at least 55 percent of his strikeouts via called 3rd strikes is former Brave Jaret Wright, who posted a ratio of 55 percent in 2004.

In Worley's 1st start this year he got 3 strikeouts looking and 2 swinging while holding the Pirates to one run on five hits with 1 BB and 5 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. It was one of the most efficient outings of his career. Last year, he threw an average of 3.92 pitchers per plate appearances. Against Pittsburgh he averaged just 3.39.

[TheHandicaper]

Ok, agree with:
Jordan Zimmerman (WAS)
R.A. Dickey (NYM)
Justin Masterson (CLE)
Brandon McCarthy (OAK)
Edinson Volquez (SD)

Here are my additions:
Tommy Milone (OAK)
Derek Lowe (Cle)
Gio Gonzalez (Was)

[seneca15krookk]

jeff samardzija Cubs or maybe i am biased towards him for his football abilities but has worked out thus far

[ChiefZilla]

Thanks guys. Updated the stats and added your additions under the "added late" section. It's not looking great for the guys we settled on before the season started, but it's too early to make any judgments.

[zkr4]

Sorry Handicapper, you've had great, informative posts that I have learned from, but please dude for the love of God don't put you're confidence in that prick Derek Lowe.

[Skating Tripods]

(04-14-2012 10:05 AM)zkr4 Wrote:  Sorry Handicapper, you've had great, informative posts that I have learned from, but please dude for the love of God don't put you're confidence in that prick Derek Lowe.

Why not? Had a 3.37 BB/9 last year, second highest of his career, that's unlikely to continue. Didn't have a great defense behind him (not that he does here either). He's walked 1 guy in 13.2 IP so far and has induced 30 GB outs. Indians radio guys said yesterday that Lowe had problems with the heat in Atlanta, said he likes being in cooler climates. They didn't expand on that, but I imagine it has something to do with his endurance and his ability to grip the baseball. Those humid conditions aren't helpful for a sinker baller. That's how they throw flat sinkers and get under their delivery.

His ERA to FIP/xFIP told me all I needed to know. Even with his second highest walk rate, his FIP was a run and a half lower than his ERA.

Loved that trade when it was made last November, love it even more now.

Doesn't hold a whole lot of fantasy value, but you know he'll be underrated in the betting market, at least for a few more starts. I doubt many people think this is anything more than a fluke. His stuff is dancing through the first two starts. He looked rejuvenated.

He'll frustrate you as a bettor because sometimes balls won't be hit right at guys, but he's going to battle, and that's what you want, especially if he's a plus-money dog.

[DOP]

maybe Lowe will be undervalue pitching for the Indians but he was always terribly overvalued pitching for the Braves..

I think his pitching type will be fine moving to the AL, meaning he will pitch equally in the AL vs. NL and he'll hold value in the AL because its so top heavy and he is not on a 'contender'. However, there were plenty of times it was Lowe -180 vs. Joe Smith in the NL and I would bet against him also every time.

He is not good enough to dominate teams and earn a -180 line but I wouldn't mind playing him in the +130/+140 against a #2 on a title-contender