MLB Team Previews

[illadelphia]

2012 Philadelphia Phillies

Projected Starting Lineup

CF - Shane Victorino: 2011 Stats: .279 AVG, 27 2Bs, 16 3Bs, 17 HRs, 61 RBIs
LF - Laynce Nix: 2011 Stats: .250 AVG, 15 2Bs, 1 3Bs, 16 HRs, 44 RBIs
3B - Placido Polanco: 2011 Stats: .277 AVG, 14 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 5 HRs, 50 RBIs
C - Carlos Ruiz: 2011 Stats: .283 AVG, 23 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 6 HRs, 40 RBIs
2B - Chase Utley: 2011 Stats: .259 AVG, 21 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 11 HRs, 44 RBIs
1B - Jim Thome (??): 2011 Stats: .256 AVG, 16 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 15 HRs, 50 RBIs
RF - Hunter Pence: 2011 Stats: .314 AVG, 38 2Bs, 5 3Bs, 22 HRs, 97 RBIs
SS - Jimmy Rollins: 2011 Stats: .268 AVG, 22 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 16 HRs, 63 RBIs

*Due to injuries (Howard) and age (Polanco, Rollins, etc) the above starting lineup is just my take on it at this point and will likely change after spring training. That being said, it is worthwhile to look at some of the Phillies bench players that will likely see more time than normal*

Michael Martinez: 2011 Stats: .196 AVG, 5 2B, 2 3B, 3 HRs, 24 RBIs
Michael Martinez’ rookie season wasn’t the greatest, and his production will still be low for the most part in 2012. The Phillies like this young guy and he should see some chances to prove himself this season.

Ty Wigginton: 2011 Stats: .242 AVG, 21 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 15 HRs, 47 RBIs
Wigginton should get plenty of chances to contribute off the bench and in the lineup. I think he’ll be a vast improvement to bench players that Phillies had last season. He could see some time at 1st depending on the timetable of Howard's return. He isn’t an on base percentage guy but he has shown decent power over his career. His OBP has been .312-.315 over the last three seasons which is not really good and goes against the hitting approach the Phillies claimed they wanted this year. His power has been there, hitting 22 homers 2 years ago for the Orioles and 15 last year for the Rockies so it isn’t hard to think that if he gets some at bats he will at least contribute some long balls to the team. This is what I believe the Phillies got him for as last year they had several power failures through out the season until Pence was acquired. Wigginton’s biggest asset is his versatility as he has played all four infield positions at one point or another, but mostly at first, third, and second. He can also play the outfield corners if needed. He is a right handed hitter so he may be platooned with Thome and Nix until Howard returns. His defense is better than Thome, Nix, and even Howard, Considering he only cost some cash and was a former All Star and can fill several roles I think Wigginton is one of the better under the radar acquisitions the Phillies made this winter.

John Mayberry Jr.: 2011 Stats: .273 AVG, 17 2B, 1 3B, 15 HRs, 49 RBIs
Mayberry is an interesting player. Going into spring training, he had the chance to be the starting left fielder over Nix. One reason I put Nix in the starting lineup is because Nix is more of a proven commodity (albeit not a great one) at this point but also because Mayberry could see some time at 1st base depending on Howard's rehab/return. Mayberry has shown that he can be a power hitter but his long term production is unknown. If he plays up to his potential, he very well could be the Phillies everyday left fielder If he struggles this spring he could figure in at 1st base until Howard returns.

Dom Brown: 2011 Stats: .245 AVG, 10 2B, 1 3B, 5 HRs, 19 RBIs
The Phillies have been very reluctant to trade him and Ruben Amaro has said he wants to see Brown develop more and. Not only did he hit just .245 in 2011, but he was caught not running out a ball, forgot to touch second base, and played the outfield like a blind newborn giraffe. Then he returned to the minors and hit .261 with zero homers in 41 games. He has a chance to battle for the left field spot this spring but all signs point to him being in AAA to start the year.

Juan Pierre: 2011 Stats: .279 AVG, 17 2B, 4 3B, 2 HRs, 50 RBIs
This was a decent move for the Phillies. Pierre provides a jolt of speed to a team lacking in that area. Pierre won’t steal 68 bags like he did in 2010 and it must be said that he has led the majors in caught-stealing seven times in eleven seasons since 2001, including the last two. Pierre is a superior contact hitter (striking out less than he walks), can be relied upon to get a bunt down, and would be a superior late-game choice on the basepaths to Thome, Wigginton, etc. So while he offers some late inning speed and he really isn't an in left field if the Mayberry experiment fails as Pierre is an terrible fielder. Assuming he’s used properly, Pierre should be a legitimate asset in 2012.

Laynce Nix: 2011 Stats: .250 AVG, 15 2Bs, 1 3Bs, 16 HRs, 44 RBIs
Nix is a bit of an enigma. He is a left handed hitter with good power but his bat has never been really consistent of what was expected of him to produce when he was a top prospect of the Texas Rangers. The range of his bat has been good to completely comatose over his career. Two seasons ago he hit .291 with a .350 OBP for the Reds, but didn’t show much power, while last year with Washington he hit .251 with a .299 OBP with 16 home runs in 324 at bats. To say Nix is a complete wild card is an understatement. Hopefully working with Charlie Manuel will help him to be more consistent at the plate. The Phillies are really hoping so because he might end up being a pretty big part of the offense, either at first until Howard returns or in the outfield where they plan to get him some at bats as well as he can play all three spots.


Analysis:
Unlike the past few years, the was no blockbuster deal this off season for the Phillies. However, the did make several signings in an attempt to beef up their bench and address some injury issues. Thome was one of those “low risk, high reward” decisions. For $1.25 million, Thome essentially replaces Ross Gload. Thome has only dusted off his first baseman’s glove four times since 2005, so don’t expect to see play that much for Howard. From what I have read, Howard is making better than expected progress with his rehab but 1st base remains somewhat of a question mark. What Thome represents is the power threat off the bench they’ve been lacking since Matt Stairs.

As for the everyday guys, Pence avoided arbitration this off season and got a $10 million deal. He looks to be the guy to fill the cleanup spot while Howard is out. Pence's numbers could improve a bit with the benefit of a full spring with the team but even playing to his average would be welcomed. In the field, Pence is a solid fielder with a strong arm that teams will be unlikely to test. He put up good numbers on an awful team in Houston and actually improved those after coming to the Phillies in the middle of last season. Victorino is a solid center fielder and an above average base stealer. His most positive attribute is his speed/hustle. He has proven that he can hit anywhere in the lineup and has filled in at the lead off spot with some success. Ruiz is a beast behind the plate and has a great relationship with the staff aces which counter his somewhat average offensive stats though he does seem to hit better in clutch situations.

Chase Utley struggled with knee issues last year and his number showed it. The 33 year old played in 115 games in 2010 and only 103 games in 2011 making many wonder whether his battered body will ever be able to make it through an entire season unscathed ever again. The injuries not only took away playing time but they also took away a large part of his offensive game as he put up low numbers his offensive production has not seen since he was breaking into the league as a rookie in the early 2000s. While it is probably safe to assume he will never be the 30 homer .900+ OPS player he used to be, if Utley is healthy seeing a 20+ home run high .800 OPS season is not totally unfathomable. The Phillies hope he can return to that form because with Howard out a large part of the offensive production will fall squarely on his shoulders. In the field Utley’s range has been cut down quite a bit so he doesn’t get to balls that he used to but Utley is a very sound tactical mind at the position. He makes up for a lot of his diminished range by good positioning on hitters and when balls are hit to him he has very soft hands and does not make many errors on everything he does get to. He is also a very good tactical runner on the base paths. He won’t steal 50 bases, but he can swipe around 20 a year and he rarely gets caught stealing when he does run. He is also very good at takeout slides to break up potential double play balls. The Phillies really need Utley healthy and playing in his usual 150 games because behind him there is not very much to help out at the position at this time.

Polanco is a frustrating player because he has shown that he can still be a dominant player (hit .398 last April) but injuries seem to get him every year. When the Phillies signed Polanco before the 2011 season it was because he was the type of hitter the Phillies said they needed in their line up. A high contact, low strike out guy they could plug into the number two hole behind Jimmy Rollins which would let them hit and run more and have some less erratic at bats at the top of the line up. Initially, Polanco looked like everything the Phillies could hope for until Tim Hudson threw an inside pitch which just happened to slam into Polanco’s elbow. After that injury Polanco was never the same hitter and last season thanks to a sports hernia, his offense was even worse as he became a high priced singles hitter who could not stay in the line up. He had double sports hernia surgery this off season and comes into 2012 healthy but it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy for a full season.

Jimmy Rollins tested free agency this off season and was humbled by the fact that no team valued him anywhere near his (insane) demands and he eventually resigned with the Phillies. Rollins gives this team a certain attitude that few other veterans can offer. His lack of plate discipline often makes him a less than successful lead off hitter but Charlie rarely moves him from the top of the order. Rollins has lost a step or two on offense as he is no longer a major threat to leg out many triples and his doubles have dropped noticeably but he still has respectable power. His power is part of his problem on offense as he likes to swing from his heels at times and tries to launch balls into Ashburn Alley and instead pops up. Part of the reason for some of the drop in doubles and triples may have been some of the leg injuries he has had over the last few years. Rollins took up yoga before last season began and it seems to have helped him stay healthier so maybe his 33 year old body can regain more of it’s former spark. Probably doubtful but the Phillies hope so. If not, there isn't much depth at shortstop and Phillies management has been reluctant to promote his apparent replacement Freddy Galvis. Galvis will be a guy to keep an eye on (especially if Rollins or Utley has an extended injury). I think it is pretty much a guarantee that Galvis will be on the team by September barring any injuries. Right now he is the closest to Major League ready middle infield prospect the team has.

I will address Ryan Howard overall since his return from injury is speculation at this point. When Howard arrived in the Majors, he had tremendous opposite field power and he has gotten away from that and it isn’t a coincidence his numbers have dropped as players can now pretty much cheat and play the shift on him every at bat. Whether Howard actually listens and does this is unknown but if he continues to be pig headed by standing away from the plate and flailing at pitches he cannot reach and in turn keeps regressing offensively the Phillies may have a very expensive mess on their hands.


Projected Starting Rotation
1. Roy Halladay, 19-6, 2.35 ERA, 220 Ks, 35 BBs, 233.2 IP, 8 CG in 2011
2. Cliff Lee, 17-8, 2.40 ERA, 238 Ks, 42 BBs, 232.2 IP, 6 CG in 2011
3. Cole Hamels, 14-9, 2.79 ERA, 194 Ks, 44 BBs, 216 IP, 3 CG in 2011
4. Vance Worley, 11-3, 3.01 ERA, 119 Ks, 46 BBs, 131.2 IP, 1 CG in 2011
5. Joe Blanton, 1-2, 5.01 ERA, 35 Ks, 9 BBs, 41.1 IP, 0 CG in 2011

Analysis:
The Phillies pitching staff last season made you realize just how hard it is to win 20 games in a season.

Roy Halladay is still the leader of this staff, and for that, he’ll produce another excellent season. I feel like tough luck made Doc miss another 20-win season last year. This year, he gets there, but just barely due in part to an improved NL East. Cliff Lee was a dominant force in the rotation, and he won’t be slowing down this season. Look for him to top his win total from last year as well and try to erase the bad taste left from the 2011 playoffs.

In a contract year, Cole Hamels should deliver, and deliver big. Hamels has fully recovered from two off season surgeries, one of which repaired a sports hernia, the other of which removed a tic-tac sized bone chip from his pitching elbow. Both injuries left him in discomfort throughout the 2011 season. He's is coming off the best season of his career. Hamels had a very misleading 14-9 record that was damaged by a lack of run support at times; however, he set career-bests in ERA (2.79), complete games (3), WHIP (0.99) and K/BB ratio (4.41).

One year after stunning the baseball world as one of the NL’s top rookies, Vance Worley will not have to worry about his place on this team. His numbers won’t suffer either, as he should keep his solid run going in 2012 despite other teams having more film on him.

As for Heavy B, I honestly thought that by this point, Blanton wouldn’t be here anymore. Blanton will serve as a suitable fifth starter this season, but only if his health holds up. If his elbow/back/etc injuries keep him from pitching, look for guys like Kendrick and Willis to figure into the 5th spot.

All in all, the Phillies remain loaded with starting pitching talent despite the loss of Oswalt this year. The young arms and new additions will benefit greatly from being around Doc, Lee and Hamels and this is something that should not be overlooked.


Projected Bullpen
RP - Chad Qualls: Righty, 6-8, 3.51 ERA, 43 Ks, 20 BBs, 74.1 IP, 0 Sv in 2011
RP - Mike Stutes: Righty, 6-2, 3.63 ERA, 58 Ks, 28 BBs, 62 IP, 0 Sv in 2011
RP - Kyle Kendrick: Righty, 8-6, 3.22 ERA, 59 Ks, 30 BBs, 114.2 IP in 2011
RP - Dontrelle Willis: Lefty, 1-6, 5.00 ERA, 57 Ks, 37 BBs, 75.2 IP, 0 CG in 2011
SU - RH setup: Jose Contreras, 0-0, 3.86 ERA, 13 Ks, 8 BBs, 14 IP, 5 Sv in 2011
LH setup: Antonio Bastardo, 6-1, 2.64 ERA, 70 Ks, 26 BBs, 58 IP, 8 Sv in 2011
CL - Jonathan Papelbon, 4-1, 2.94 ERA, 87 Ks, 10 BBs, 64.1 IP, 31/34 Sv in 2011

Analysis:

Middle Inning Guys: Qualls was a nice addition to the bullpen and he will contribute constantly. Mainly a one-inning guy, he’ll make quite a few appearances, fairly late in games as well, making him one of the key arms in the bullpen and in negating the loss of Madson in the off season. Stutes will still be a fixture to the back end of the bullpen, but may fall victim to guys like Bastardo, Qualls and Willis, who may sometimes see more time. Kyle Kendrick was a popular pick as the 5th starter last season, and much like 2011 seniority and accolades will push him to the bullpen. But Kendrick will find his time to contribute, making a few starts along the way. Dontrelle Willis is one of the new Phillies arms that will likely be a bullpen fixture, but a solid one at that. While his ERA won’t be pretty, he showed last year he has a knack for dominating left handed hitters (20 Ks in 60 batters faced and only 2 walks). Willis should deliver enough to make an impact in what should be a deep bullpen. Joel Pineiro was also signed to a minor league contract and may show up in the pen (or #5 spot) but that depends largely on his performance this spring.

Setup Guys: After a successful 2010, and an injury-plagued 2011, Jose Contreras remains somewhat of a question mark. Age and injuries tend to point towards a less than successful 2012. Left handed pitchers seem to be the one glaring hole in the bullpen this season and Contreras doesn't appear to be a durable solution. While the wins seemed to come easy for Bastardo last season, he should have a similar or better year in 2012. He has the ability to throw gas when he needs it and has developed a few nice out pitches. His win total probably won’t be as high, but he’ll continue to post solid numbers in a follow-up to his stellar 2011.

Closer: Papelbon has taken a lot of criticism for his giant offseason contract, but he is the undeniable closer for the Phillies in 2012. The Phillies let Ryan Madson walk and it is hard to see Madson as a better closer than Papelbon. Papelbon essentially throws a two-seam fastball, a slider, and a splitter. Papelbon had walk problems in 2009 & 2010, but apparently fixed this in 2011. Papelbon also pitched in the AL where there are fewer "easy" outs, though in late games with the opponent behind in the NL, pinch hitters will come up rather than weak-hitting pitchers, so that likely can be discounted a bit. Also, while Papelbon pitched in the tough AL East, he obviously did not have to pitch against the Red Sox, thus lowering the bar. Still, if the walks are truly fixed, then it's reasonable to expect that Papelbon should be better than Madson. Coming from Boston, he knows what it is like to close in pressure situation and should benefit from a dominant starting rotation and deep bullpen. Aside from a few hiccups, the Phillies will now have the lights out bullpen to go with a handful of aces in the rotation which will be crucial if their offensive production suffers for periods of time as it has in the past.

Manager: I think Charlie is huge for this team. He knows how to get the most of all of his players. A lot of people can manager a major-league game strategically, but Charlie manages 25 different personalities better than almost anyone. That’s huge. Some need pats on the back and others need a kick in the butt. He is part of why they’ve been so successful since he’s been manager.


Overall Analysis and Prediction
The average age for the Phillies last year was 31.6. Shane Victorino is 31. Ryan Howard is 32. Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Ruiz are 33. Placido Polanco is 36. Among prospective starters, only Hunter Pence (turns 29 in April) and John Mayberry (28) are under 30. If the older guys can stay healthy, this team will resemble the dominant 2008 & 2009 lineups. But as with most older teams, if injuries occur and key players are out for long stretches of time, the Phillies will likely struggle to score runs.

The star studded starting rotation and improved bullpen will help when the bats aren't producing but this team learned last year (see Wild Card series) that pitching will only go so far. Many experts are saying that an improved NL East will hurt the Phillies this year. I disagree. If anything, I believe it will help this team come playoff time because it will force them to be a balanced team throughout the season and not simply rely on just hitting or pitching as they have done in the past.

Prediction:
Phillies will win the NL East again this year. As for total wins, a high/low of High: 102 and Low: 90 seems about right. Predicting playoff success is a crap shoot because as we have seen in the past few years, a hot team can take down a better team in October. That aside, this team has the talent and the experience to win not only the NL but also the World Series.

Interesting Note:
On the departure of Pujols and Fielder from the NL -- Think about the effect this has on the overall quality of competition the Phillies pitchers will have to face. They will play the Cardinals and Brewers a total of 14 times in 2012, and none against the Angels or Tigers. Fielder hit an incredible .440/.533/.560 against the Phillies last year, while Pujols hit .356/.408/.533. Now that both of them are gone, the Phillies pitchers can breathe a huge sigh of relief.

[RyanParrill]

While I'm finishing up my preview over the next few days, I'll address STP with some banter...

(02-14-2012 11:29 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Verlander is one of the few Tigers I don't unequivocally hate, mostly because he's just that damn good and not a dick about it. I even applauded him for throwing at Carlos Santana last August as payback for Santana's pose on the walk-off grand slam he hit on April 29.

I'm not sure how much regression to expect from JV. Lefties did hit 60 points lower off of him than his career numbers (.174/.234) which is certainly a red flag to me. Even hit .230 off him in 2011. Hitters also hit 38 points lower than his career average against with RISP.

That said, dude's still a top notch power arm. He did throw a career high 270 innings last year including the playoffs. I'd be curious to see if there's any hangover from that. God knows CC Sabathia had one in 2008 after being a workhorse in 2007.

The more I think about it, you could see second half regression as the strain of throwing additional pitches from having a shitty defense could catch up with him, coupled with the huge workload from 2011.

Not much to disagree with here. I definitely believe he has the ability to have another outstanding year. But you'd have to be ignorant to not at least be a little concerned that the innings will add up at some point in the season.

(02-14-2012 11:29 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Back of their rotation is definitely questionable. Everyone's making a big deal out of the Indians all RH rotation, but what about Detroit's? Difference is that the Indians have a LH heavy lineup while Detroit has just Fielder, Boesch, and Avila.

Scherzer's control problems don't allow him to go deep into games. The Tigers sorely lacked middle relief after Alburquerque had surgery. I'm not sold on their bridges to Valverde. If Porcello and #5 can't give them length, the bullpen's going to log an average of 14-15 innings every time through the rotation. That's hard to sustain with only one or two go-to guys in middle/setup relief, especially without Alburquerque until at least mid-July.

The back of the rotation consists of Scherzer-Porcello-1/5 Possibilities. I understand the concerns on Scherzer. He's hot/cold so it's really tough to gauge what he'll end up doing. I believe Porcello will have his best year, and all signs so far have pointed to this. The 5th spot, no longer occupied by Brad Penny, will be a question mark. The luxury is, if 1 guy falters, another will get the opportunity.

As for lacking middle relief, I don't agree with this. As I said, there are 5 guys going for the 5th rotation spot. Two that don't make it will become middle relievers with Adam Wilk. With Benoit and Valverde closing out the bullpen, there isn't much need for depth there.

(02-14-2012 11:29 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  And I'm not sold on Boesch. See his 2nd half of 2011 for proof of that.

The 2nd half of the season when he was injured? I don't believe he'll have a career year, but he's hitting ahead of Cabrera and Fielder, pitchers have to give him something. And he'll making a living on that. Having those hitters behind him may hide most of his weaknesses, but that's the point of them. Perhaps a Boesch batting stat bet is in the future...

(02-14-2012 11:29 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  I bet of the 18 games against the Royals, at least 12-13 go over the total.

Betting tip for the kids. And it's a good one.

[Beyond the Bets]

I'm getting pumped for MLB and wanted to bump this so it didn't get lost. Great contributions by all so far and much appreciated.

I had originally planned team-by-team season previews, but got swept up in March Madness. You'll be seeing more MLB on the main page soon enough.

[Skating Tripods]

(03-07-2012 10:10 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  Not much to disagree with here. I definitely believe he has the ability to have another outstanding year. But you'd have to be ignorant to not at least be a little concerned that the innings will add up at some point in the season.

Tons of innings in that arm over the last 5 years. He throws such a free and easy 97-99 that I can't picture him getting hurt. Maybe losing velo later in the year this year, that I could see.

When he's on, he's the best pitcher in baseball. That's right, I said it. And the Indians are one of the few teams who actually have had a little success against him. (4.82 ERA in 27 starts)

Quote:The back of the rotation consists of Scherzer-Porcello-1/5 Possibilities. I understand the concerns on Scherzer. He's hot/cold so it's really tough to gauge what he'll end up doing. I believe Porcello will have his best year, and all signs so far have pointed to this. The 5th spot, no longer occupied by Brad Penny, will be a question mark. The luxury is, if 1 guy falters, another will get the opportunity.

Turner's dead arm, to me, is a big deal. There are already rumblings about Fister regressing with the IF defense behind him. I'm beginning to think that Cabrera/Fielder will DH 5-6 times per week. I'm not totally sure that the IF defense will be that big of an issue for the Kitties.

Quote:As for lacking middle relief, I don't agree with this. As I said, there are 5 guys going for the 5th rotation spot. Two that don't make it will become middle relievers with Adam Wilk. With Benoit and Valverde closing out the bullpen, there isn't much need for depth there.

Meh. I'm not a big fan of failed starters into middle relief roles. You don't find many power pitchers competing for the 5th spot. In middle relief, you have to have the ability to miss bats or have a quirky arm slot. Failed SP don't have either of those things.

I wouldn't be shocked if one of the teams that Michael Wuertz throws for is the Tigers. He'd be a nice addition to their pen, if he's healthy.

Quote:The 2nd half of the season when he was injured? I don't believe he'll have a career year, but he's hitting ahead of Cabrera and Fielder, pitchers have to give him something. And he'll making a living on that. Having those hitters behind him may hide most of his weaknesses, but that's the point of them. Perhaps a Boesch batting stat bet is in the future...

The Tigers need to go find a leadoff hitter so they can hit Austin Jackson in the 6/7 spot in the order. His K's aren't as big of a deal down there. I don't like Boesch in front of Miggy/Cecil. Better off having him in a position to drive in runs rather than set the table.

Everybody's fellating Ryan Raburn for his Spring stats. LOL. .240 and 15 HR this season.

Quote:Betting tip for the kids. And it's a good one.

They'll be putting up 10s and 10.5s for any game not pitched by Verlander for the KC/DET games. And they may still go over with ease more often than not.

[JSpauny]

Can we all just agree that spring training means jack shit? About all it can be used for is to judge if pitchers can throw a baseball and hitters can swing a bat? Almost every player out there is working on his game and a good chunk of those guys aren't MLB players.

The only thing I use ST for is to see if a pitcher off injury has his velocity and control back to an extent. All these people gushing because Waino has dominated ST need to take a fucking chill pill. The guy has yet to consistently throw his curveball for strikes which is his great out pitch against LH and RH. If he can't throw that curveball for strikes during the season, he will struggle big time. I don't care if he throws a perfect game the next ST game, if his curve isn't on when it matters he is going to struggle.

Spring Training hype is about the worst kind of hype around. It means nothing.

[Beyond the Bets]

Completely agree, JSpauny. And we see the ST overreaction mostly in fantasy baseball, where people are adding and dropping players on the fly based on a one-game sample. If a hitter belts three home runs, we think he's the next up-and-comer. Problem is, his home runs very well could have come against a rookie pitcher who will start the year in Triple A; a crafty veteran whose working on his stuff; and a past-his-prime hack who is trying to hang on but clearly doesn't have "it" anymore.

Back when I played golf somewhat competitively, I would often work on certain mechanics during a practice round. While doing so, I'd play a poor round. But it was a practice round. The score didn't matter.

Same goes for ST. The score doesn't matter. Neither does performance.

[RyanParrill]

Projected Starting Lineup (Back-ups in parentheses)

CF - Austin Jackson (Andy Dirks, Don Kelly)
RF - Brennan Boesch (Andy Dirks, Ryan Raburn)
3B - Miquel Cabrera (Brandon Inge, Don Kelly)
1B - Prince Fielder (Miquel Cabrera, Don Kelly)
LF - Delmon Young (Andy Dirks, Don Kelly)
C - Alex Avila (Gerald laird, Omir Santos)
SS - Jhonny Peralta (Ramon Santiago, Danny Worth)
DH - Ryan Raburn (Delmon Young, Miquel Cabrera/Prince Fielder)
2B - Brandon Inge (Ramon Santiago, Brandon Inge)


Analysis:
Fielding - I'll start with the strengths of the fielding - the outfield and behind the plate. It had been mentioned that Jackson is at his weakest going to his left, the speed of Dirks should allow him to shade that way just a little to make up for any uncovered ground. For as big as Comerica is, that's a great luxury to have. I don't really have any worries about the fielding out there, unless Jackson hits some Granderson-like regression. Behind the plate is a steady body in Avila and his back-up Laird is known for his defense. Which is great, because he's not much of a hitter. As for the back-ups, Kelly will relieve the outfielders but unless a struggle at the plate takes them out, the OF will stay fairly consistent. He'll also relieve the infield corners as Danny Worth backs up the middle spots. Now the starting infield. I really have no idea how this is going to fit together. I do know two things, they won't be passing out any gold gloves to them and I'd bunt against this team all day and night.

Batting - I'll just start at the top and work my way down this order. Jackson is the lead off hitter and in a perfect world, that wouldn't be the case. We started doing the 'square peg-round hole' for this spot with Granderson and didn't miss a beat when Jackson came. We've managed to win with it so I expect this to continue to be serviceable. He worked on a 'leg-kick' habit, trying to eliminate it, and it has seemed to work so far. Boesch will bat 2nd and I am optimistic for his season at the plate. Had a rough 2nd half in 2010 and missed the end of last season with a hand injury after a strong start. He crushes balls that are left in the zone, and many are put there with Cebrera/Fielder behind him (Same when it was VMart instead of Fielder). Obviously 3-4 will be fine, both MVP-type hitters. I'm sure Young will also fill in well in the 5 spot, as long as he adapts to DHing when not in LF. I expected Avila to struggle behind the plate last year, he made a liar out of me. Raburn rounds out the lineup with Brandon Inge. Inge will never be a good hitter but his glove/athleticism keep him playing and Raburn has the bat when he can be consistent/not be a liability in the field. If he can bat to start the year, he'll stay there. Since his defense isn't earning him playing time anywhere, he'll need to be comfortable and confident quick. Spring training should at least give him that because thwere isn't anything else coming out of it.

Projected Starting Rotation
SP - Justin Verlander
SP - Doug Fister
SP - Max Scherzer
SP - Rick Porcello
SP - ?

Analysis:
When you have the reigning CY & MVP winner, it causes you to sleep a little better. Especially when complemented with Fister-Scherzer-Porcello. If Verlander and Fister are unable to duplicate their stats, which were quite good, I'd expect Scherzer and Porcello to make up for it. The biggest question for them will be longevity. How long can Verlander handle such a work load? Will Scherzer and Porcello last longer than 5 innings to spare some of the bullpen? One of their problems at the beginning of last year was the amount of innings the bullpen had to pitch. The biggest question for the entire unit is the one with the mark, the 5th starter. After having Penny, who sucked but ate innings (double-edged sword), I'm not worried about the 5th starter. I like having a spot that allows for competition and there are 4 names that can answer the call. Jacob Turner, 20, is the youngest of the prospects but has the highest ceiling. Doesn't appear he or his arm are quite ready for this role. Looks like he'll start in the minors, no problem with that. The next 3 options are all LH. Andy Oliver was the 6th starter last year, and if he controls the ball, he could take this spot and it looks like he may do so. Drew Smyly was drafted in 2010 and spent last year in AA, not a lot of power but makes it with it in control. And Duane Below, who made 2 starts last year for Detroit after moving up through the system. Below may be a longer shot for this spot because he can pitch in long relief. Throughout his career he has bounced between start/bull pen.

Projected Bullpen

RP - Collin Balester
RP - Daniel Schlereth
RP - Al Alburquerque (Eventually)
RP - Octavio Dotel
SU - Phil Coke (LH)
SU - Joaquin Benoit
CL - Jose Valverde

Analysis:
I am cautiously optimistic for this unit. I believe they have some depth to go with the 'hot hand' before the 8th inning and obviously have a back-end of the bullpen that can close games out, just not 'perfect' like last season. The long relievers will come from a couple that don't become the 5th starter. Some shuffling may occur in the middle, but I expect some consistency, as long as they're not overworked again.

Managers
Leyland is entering his 7th season as Tiger's manager, with only 2007 coming close to the preseason hype that this team has now. He's someone who really likes to 'manage' as his lineup may be 7 different ways in 7 days. This has been frustrating, but I look forward to it this season with so many guys being able to play multiple positions, while using the DH for rest. As for the same song and dance with the bullpen, I'll just monitor it as it happens.


Overall Analysis and Prediction
The bar has been set quite high for this team. Going to the ALCS and returning almost everyone will call for it, adding Fielder only brings fuel to the fire. This team will outhit some of their mistakes, and that doesn't include ground balls to the face off of the equivalent to a concrete surface. Leyland likes to tamper with his lineup just about every day, so having multiple guys for DH, 2B, and LF will allow him to do that while keeping the 1-5 spots in the batting order consistent.

Gambling
This really depends on what you're looking for. With an offense like this, there won't be a lot of value in the ML on them, or the overs. With that being said, at least for the overs, they're inevitable. As Skating Tripods has pointed out, the Royals/Tigers will put some runs up. They have a history of struggling against LH starters, so maybe that's a place to begin.

Just as a heads up, their first 9 games are during the day and outside. The first 6, in Detroit, are against Bos (3) and TB (3). The next 3 are in Chicago against the White Sox.

If you have any specific questions or trolling comments, feel free to ask. Instead of updating this, I'll post thoughts here, as the boss requested.

[bart41]

My Royals preview is getting sadder and sadder by the day. Their outlook has darkened considerably in a month. If they win 77 games, I'd be shocked. I'll have a full preview in the next couple days.

[SkyBlues42]

So the Under 80.5 (-180) win total bet would be a pretty good one?

[Beyond the Bets]

(03-27-2012 10:12 AM)bart41 Wrote:  My Royals preview is getting sadder and sadder by the day. Their outlook has darkened considerably in a month. If they win 77 games, I'd be shocked. I'll have a full preview in the next couple days.

Awesome. I like the under on KC.

[bart41]

Expectations: I think it’s important for this team preview to set the background for 2012 season. The Royals have been building toward something for the last 5 years. Last year with the talk of the farm system being the best of the last 20 years and having prospects perform successfully at the major league level during the latter half of the season, the bar for this season was raised. The question is, how many of these guys are ready to take another step forward and how many are going to just maintain the prior year performance?

Projected Starting Lineup
LF – Alex Gordon (Maier/Bourgeois)
CF – Lorenzo Cain (Maier/Bourgeois)
1B – Eric Hosmer (Butler)
DH – Billy Butler
RF – Jeff Francoeur (Maier/Bourgeois)
3B – Mike Moustakas (Betancourt)
C – Brayan Pena (Quintero)
SS – Alcides Escobar (Betancourt)
2B – Chris Getz (Betancourt)

Analysis
Overall: The Royals are returning almost exactly the same team as last season, just everyone is a year older. There were a few adjustments made during the offseason. The primary change this year is in CF with Lorenzo Cain taking over for Melky Cabrera, who was traded for starting pitcher, Jonathan Sanchez. Also, the signing of Yuni Betancourt changed the landscape of the 2B situation and spring training injuries to Joakim Soria, Felipe Paulino, and Salvador Perez have had an impact on the 2012 outlook.

Fielding: In 2011, the Royals were a middling defensive team at best with solid IF defense and average to below average OF defense. The primary drag on the OF defense was Melky Cabrera in CF. By Fangraphs, he was the 5th worst CF in the league and watching him every day, it was pretty obvious. Replacing him with Lorenzo Cain who by reputation is a above average (not great) CF will turn doubles into outs. The other defensive liability statistically was Eric Hosmer at 1B. The Royals blogging community investigated this issue and the primary cause of his statistical rating was that his positioning was very poor. Had he been positioned as most 1B in baseball are positioned, he would have been an above average to great 1B. During the offseason, multiple interviews with Royals front office personnel addressed the issue of Hosmer’s positioning and assured fans it wouldn’t be an issue going forward. I expect a Hosmer-Getz-Escobar-Moustakas infield to be one of the top infield defenses in baseball. The problem with the Royals is their insistence that Yuni Betancourt is a major-league level player. The fact that he is the backup at every infield position except 1B is very disturbing and could lead to an above average defense being dragged down by his presence.

Hitting: in 2011, the Royals were #6 in runs scored in the AL. Over their last 30 games, KC went 20-10 to the over with an average of 9.5 total runs per game. Now, they return that same lineup (and basic pitching staff) for a full season. Some expect the Royals to at least repeat their performance last year as #6 in the AL, and hopefully make it into the top 5. Passing NYY, BOS, TEX, DET, or TOR seems unlikely, but if the players progress as expected, it’s not outside the realm of possibility. The downside here is that KC got career years from all 3 OFs- Gordon, Francouer, and Cabrera, along with a couple months of a stunning performance at the plate from Salvador Perez. I expect both Gordon and Francouer to take steps back this season, Cain is not the hitter that Cabrera is, and Pena is a small downgrade offensively from Perez. Given the current lineup and the makeup of the AL Central I think a repeat performance of last year’s offense is the best possible situation.

Key Players: I believe the offensive production is set from Gordon, Francouer, Escobar, Getz/Betancourt (or whoever plays 2B), Butler, and Pena. The Royals’ variance this year will come from Hosmer, Moustakas, and Cain. If these three players hit consistently well and take a step forward, this team will be a sneaky ‘over’ team. If those players aren’t hitting, they will struggle. Because I was watching the team regularly I had success last year riding certain key Royals’ hitters hot streaks to the over and then bailing once I saw certain players fading. I think Cain, Moustakas, and Hosmer will be the drivers of this offense’s performance.

Projected Starting Rotation
Bruce Chen
Luke Hochevar
Jonathan Sanchez
Danny Duffy
Luis Mendoza

Analysis: I see three major keys to pitching – strikeouts, groundballs, and limiting walks. Each of the Royals’ starters can do at least one, maybe two of these things well, but struggle so much at the others that it almost is a wash.

Chen is a major regression candidate. He’s got xFIP and BABIP regression coming and got lucky with his fly balls too. He can’t keep getting away with it. I’ll be betting against him to start the year.

Hochevar is a severe groundball pitcher and can get strikeouts, he just can do neither consistently from start to start. One game he’s on and having a career performance, the next it’s UGLY. If he has truly put it together and we start seeing 3-4 good to great starts in a row, it’s time to believe. I won’t believe it til I see it though.

Sanchez will either strike a guy out or walk him. If we see his walk rate drop, he’ll have a fantastic season. He’s been up and down in spring training, so I’m not holding my breath.

Duffy is a total wild card. Most project him to be what he is now with not much more upside. If they don’t see what they like early, he’ll find his way to Omaha.

Mendoza – I’m not a believer. He’s had a Cy Young Spring Training and the organization is almost forced to put him in the starting rotation, but he’s not this good. He’s barely good at all. I’m fading him from the start.

Other Possible Starting Options
Felipe Paulino – starting the season on the DL because of a sore elbow. He’s solid, may be underrated when he returns.
Aaron Crow – banished to the bullpen by short-sighted management
Sean O’Sullivan – The OF bleachers turn into Fallujah when he’s starting, if he makes it into the rotation, fade him and play the over.

Projected Bullpen
Jonathan Broxton
Tim Collins
Aaron Crow
Kelvin Herrera
Jose Mijares
Greg Holland
Blake Wood

Without Soria, this is a no-name bullpen (beside Broxton, who might just be a name), but a good bullpen. As a fan, I feel confident in every reliever holding a lead except for Broxton and Wood. The other 5 guys are very strong and all bring something different to the pen. I expect the Royals to hold leads and close out close games all season. If a couple guys get injured, there are at least 3 more arms in AAA which can come up to KC and replace anyone else in this bullpen without a downgrade.

Overall Analysis
When this team hits, I believe they will hit as a team. I see it being extremely feast or famine offensively. If the key players I mentioned above are hitting, they will put up runs. I also see the starting rotation giving up runs and the bullpen becoming overworked as the season progresses. In my opinion, in the AL Central the Royals have the worst starting rotation and the 2nd best offense. I also think they have the best defense and the best bullpen. The current o/u is 78.5. I lean under here, but it’ll be close. I saw this number at 80.5 at one point and was firmly on the under. I think it’s a 77 win team with a 5 win standard deviation.

[MrLomez]

I just finished my Padres sheet and wanted to add a few things here.

1) Surprisingly, this is actually one of the better offenses in the NL West, better than the Dodgers and Giants. They scale out to about 2% better than average (NL) in terms of run output, and they have a deep bench. BUT...and it's a big but, this team has one of the more drastic L/R splits of any lineup I've looked at so far. Their production drops from about 4.21 runs/game to about 3.86 versus a league average lefty--and that's with the most optimal substitutions.

2) Luebke is a stud. He's every bit the pitcher Latos was. All his peripheral stats look really good, and he could easily be the next wunderkind of the NL West. I won't make any predictions about his win totals, but you can expect teams to struggle against him. He's especially effective against left-hand heavy lineups (LHB tOPS+ against is 50--which just means left handed batters are 50% as good against him as they are normally).

3)Unlike OP I had trouble finding value in the bullpen. The Adams and Bell loss are really significant in my analysis. Cashner, Gregerson, Frieri, and Thatcher should post a park-neutral ERA of about 4.02, to say nothing of whether or not Huston Street can be a reliable closer. To compound the middling bullpen, the starting rotation, Luebke included, are not inning eaters--at all. This rotation projects to pitch the fewest innings per start of any team in the NL West, at about 5.95 IP/start. That should place a very heavy burden on the bullpen. I expect the Padres to lose a lot of games in the 7th, 8th, and 9th. (For books that offer 2H bets on baseball, this might be something to watch.)

[RyanParrill]

Looks like the Tigers starting lineup and rotation are now set:

CF - Austin Jackson (Andy Dirks, Don Kelly)
RF - Brennan Boesch (Andy Dirks, Ryan Raburn)
3B - Miquel Cabrera (Brandon Inge, Don Kelly)
1B - Prince Fielder (Miquel Cabrera, Don Kelly)
LF - Delmon Young (Andy Dirks, Don Kelly)
DH - Ryan Raburn (Delmon Young, Miquel Cabrera/Prince Fielder)
SS - Jhonny Peralta (Ramon Santiago, Danny Worth)
C - Alex Avila (Gerald Laird, Brandon Inge)
2B - Ramon Santiago (Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge)


#1SP - Justin Verlander
#2SP - Doug Fister
#3SP - Max Scherzer
#4SP - Rick Porcello
#5SP - Drew Smyly (Will appear in the 2nd rotation, no #5 starter used in 1st rotation)

[JSpauny]

Santiago's gunna look like a Gold Glover out there with Miggy, Prince and Peralta.