MLB team experts thread [volunteers wanted]

[SkyBlues42]

San Diego has lived up to expectations so far, struggling produce runs on a nightly basis. They are just 1-4 and take on Arizona in the second of a three-game series tonight. The Diamondbacks are actually off to their best start in franchise history (4-0).

The Padres are -124 favorites in tonight's game, which is surprising given who's on the mound for Arizona. Joe Saunders had mediocre results last year, posting a 12-13 record and sub-4.00 ERA, but he has had no trouble against San Diego.

He's 5-3 with a 3.00 ERA. Last season, he was 3-1 with a sub-2.00 ERA in four starts against the Diamondbacks. Current Padres hitters are batting a combined .248 with just 1 HR in 129 AB's.

I'm not personally betting the ML in this one, but if I had to choose, I'd say at +114, the price on Arizona is definitely worth it. Also like the OVER 6.5 (-110).

Note: Justin Upton expects to play (but we'll see). He has three HR's in 10 AB's against San Diego's starter, Cory Luebke.

[ChiefZilla]

Royals lineup for Wednesday...

Gordon LF
Escobar SS
Hosmer 1B
Butler DH
Francoeur RF
Moustakas 3B
Maier CF
Pena C
Getz 2B

CF Lorenzo Cain got hurt slamming into the wall yesterday on an awesome catch and double play. Sitting out today but should be ok going forward. That's a pretty good lineup for the Royals otherwise. I'm taking a stab on them as underdogs. Should be a tight, low-scoring contest. Supposed to be more rain later in the afternoon.

[lorecore]

Phillies (Halladay) -140 vs Marlins (Johnson), o/u 6.

Johnson and Halladay have matched up 3 times in the past two seasons, lets take a look:

May 29, 2010: Phils 1, Marlins 0 - Doc throws a perfect game, Johnson allows 1 unearned run
June 10, 2010: Marlins 2, Phils 0 - Johnson goes 8 scoreless, Doc gives up 1 in his 8IP.
May 10, 2011: Marlins 2, Phils 1 - Johnson gives up 1 through 7, Doc gives up 1 ER, 1 uER in 8IP.

In total the games average 2 runs a game with the starters combining for just 3 ER in 47IP.

I'd love to dig into details of this game, but it just flat out doesn't matter - both pitchers OWN the opposition, who both are struggling to score in the first place. Oh yea, and its a cold night in Philly.

[acfrahm]

Quick White Sox Update: 3-2 so far, up 1.77 units. Over/Under is 1/4. Not many Sox are hitting so far, except Konerko who has been on fire. Pitching has held been pretty good so far. I like Chris Sale a lot, and think there could be value on him early while he still is an unknown commodity. As I said before, I think the bullpen could be very good. Santiago (closer) and Reed are still somewhat unknown, but Ventura seems to love both of them.

Big series with the Tigers coming up. It's the Sox home opener on Friday. Scherzer v. Peavy.

Take a long look at White Sox unders this season. The pitching should exceed expectations and this team is not going to hit a ton, even if they pick it up.

[JSpauny]

Cards update:

Lance Berkman is expected to be out for several days with a calf strain. He's supposed to have an MRI sometime today I believe to properly diagnose how bad the tear is. Berkman had this injury previously in his career and took a 15 day DL trip because of it. Obviously, the cool weather doesn't help this situation either. I'm guessing after the MRI a decision will be made on a DL trip. If the tear is minor they might just hold him out a week, if it is more severe expect him to land on the DL.

The main replacement (with Allen Craig still on the DL) figures to be Matt Carpenter. This weakens the offense a little bit, especially if they continue to hit him in the 4 hole (most likely not, guessing Freese will get those duties for the time being or if Matheny feels like channeling his inner TLR, it'll be a Furcal, Jay, Beltran, Holliday, Freese 1-5). Carpenter doesn't have much power (12 Hrs was career high in minors), but he does hit the ball well. He posed OPSs above .880 in his last 2 years in the minors. The kid can hit, just not the longball. Like I said, ultimately this will weaken the offense but with how well the others are hitting I'm not sure it will have a large effect.

Adam Wainwright starts the home opener tomorrow against Jeff Samaraajzjzzjjzjjajaz. I talked about it before, but I thought Waino looked pretty good in his debut. Velo was down a little, but first start back after a year, that's to be expected. He had average control but seemed to get the feel back for his pitches as he got deeper into the game. Not sure how large this line will be, but Waino has been dominant at Busch for his career. Career home FIP of 3.14 and xFIP of 3.47. In his last 2 years at Busch (09 and 10) his highest FIP was 2.8 and his highest xFIP was 3.14. Dominant. Not a big ERA fan but for those that like that better career home ERA of 2.51, with his highest over the last 2 years being 2.05. Basically, the guy deals at home.

[Skating Tripods]

The Indians are close to signing Johnny Damon.

I'm close to backing into a corner, getting in the fetal position, and crying.

[JSpauny]

(04-12-2012 11:04 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  The Indians are close to signing Johnny Damon.

I'm close to backing into a corner, getting in the fetal position, and crying.

Good thing I hedged my Over 75.5 with an Under 79.5. Smart move me.

[SkyBlues42]

Damon is officially an Indian.

[ChiefZilla]

(04-11-2012 01:41 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  CF Lorenzo Cain got hurt slamming into the wall yesterday on an awesome catch and double play. Sitting out today but should be ok going forward.

So, yeah... about that. Turns out, Cain isn't ok going forward. Landed on the 15-day DL for the Royals home opener today. Recalled Jerrod Dyson, who has to be just about the weakest-hitting outfielder in all of baseball.

Hurts the lineup, mainly because it means we'll keep hitting Alcides Escobar in the 2-hole, and that's just not a good fit.

Some people say the 2-hole should be occupied by your best overall hitter. Escobar isn't even average.

[lorecore]

Phillies (Lee) -180 vs Mets (Dickey) 6.5 o/u

People in Philly are crying about the knuckler because he 1 hit CGSO the Phils in New York one time and has earned the reputation as a "Phillie Killer", so the locals are jumping on the +170 Mets as great value. BUT Dickey has pitched awfully in Philadelphia, 0-2 in two starts with a total of 9 runs and 16 hits in just 9IP - and Lee has owned the Mets for his career (1 ER in 21IP over 3 starts).

-180 looks about right to me - probably worth it - take Lee and the Phils at home.

[illadelphia]

(04-13-2012 12:06 PM)lorecore Wrote:  Phillies (Lee) -180 vs Mets (Dickey) 6.5 o/u

People in Philly are crying about the knuckler because he 1 hit CGSO the Phils in New York one time and has earned the reputation as a "Phillie Killer", so the locals are jumping on the +170 Mets as great value. BUT Dickey has pitched awfully in Philadelphia, 0-2 in two starts with a total of 9 runs and 16 hits in just 9IP - and Lee has owned the Mets for his career (1 ER in 21IP over 3 starts).

-180 looks about right to me - probably worth it - take Lee and the Phils at home.

Good stuff lorecore. Doing a great job showing how intelligent Phillies fans can be despite the negative reputation we have.

I will add this nugget I saw on twitter. Shows that pitching will likely carry this team:

Quote: After 6 games, the Phillies starting pitchers are 3-1 with an MLB leading 1.60 ERA

[JSpauny]

The start of the Cardinals game is being delayed by 30 minutes (start time 2:45 CDT now) due to rain. It's been raining all morning so the OF is going to be sloppy, and let's be honest these two teams don't have the greatest OFs. Could see a bunch of bad plays in the OF in this game.

---

Screwed up the time. Start time is 3:45 CDT now, but with how bad it's currently raining it sure doesn't seem like that time is looking good either.

[zkr4]

I guess it's time for a Braves update....

The bats seem to be coming around, but always remember this is a team that as a whole, cannot hit consistently and tends to struggle against LHP which we have been seeing our bait of.

Chipper played the Astros series and looked good, the proverbial guy that rolls out of bed hitting .300. Not quite the case anymore but the guy is still a major league force at the plate and even when he's not hitting, if he's in the lineup he's given considerable attention (maybe even too much at times). But the problem is he didn't play last night and is doubtful for tonight, as he had to get his knee drained of fluid last night. He says it felt immediately better, but as much respect as I have for him, don't believe what he says half the time, he's a master of the jedi mind trick (partly the reason we all think he would be one helluva manager or hitting coach, he's dismissed the thought of managing so far.) I gotta feeling his knees will continue to be problem this year. We have a ready made replacement for him in Prado, and against lefties we will lose no offense with Matty Diaz in left.

The rookie SS Pastornicky is looking pretty good so far, has a triple and a homer, and has legged out a couple hits with his speed. His defense looks pretty good, my only complaint so far is that Freeman seems to have to stretch a little too often to pick his throws to first. But Freddie can handle it, as I feel he will eventually garner a Gold Glove at first when they quit adding offensive stats to the discussion.

The pitching has been dreadful, quite a suprise given that was supposed to be our strong suit, and so far we haven't had a starter record an out in the 6th inning. Jurrjens has been battling diminished velocity, understandable considering his health issues last year. But last night he had some zip on that fastball, recording a 92mph strike (he had been sitting at 88-90 through spring and first start). He left a couple over the plate and got knocked around, but the bump up in velocity is encouraging. I felt in the offseason he'd be overvalued because of his first half numbers last year, but the second half injury must have diminished his perceived value.

The other pitchers are concerning as well, but Fredi G has a tendency to have a quick hook, and eventually he's just gonna have to go with them an extra inning at whatever cost. Our bullpen is great, but the big 3 were overworked last season and I feel (though I hope not) that may catch up to them later in this season, especially if they are leaned on heavily early (which with starters not going past 5, is happening obviously). One note on that though, Kris Medlen, a straight-up bulldog that goes straight at em and has really good success doing that, is in the pen as long-relief/setup this year after injury last year and should take a little pressure off them, as long as he isn't used up in a long relief role, then not available for a few days. I do not trust Livan as long relief/setup man, and Durbin should be released immediately, because we have guys who have nothing left to prove in minors while this guy blows games in the same fashion as Sherrill and Linebrink did last year.

On injured players, Tim Hudson is getting there, got roughed up in his last minors rehab start, but we all know that is for honing pitches and gaining endurance much more than it is results-based. The starting rotation should really be uplifted when he returns (early-May), as he is the leader of that group and a fantastic clubhouse/bounce what your feeling off of guy. And Peter Moylan, Aussie groundball specialist and a big cog of our bullpen for rest/leadership is still a ways off, but he will be available at some point and should provide and extra able body and some vet presence that doesn't blow games the way the other vets do.

We all know that baseball is a confidence-based game, and I believe, when Huddy is back and Chipper returns consistently to the lineup, it should pick the others guys up a little mentally and should lead to playing a little more confidently.

Not a problem now, but for future reference, Teheran and, once Huddy gets back, Delgado are just tolling around in AAA with next to nothing to prove there, and I feel this is doing nothing but hurting their "ceiling", and Teherans's is as high as the sky while Delgado's is pretty damn high too.

Sorry to be lengthy, but felt I had a lot to get to, and could go on for hours more lol. As always fellas, GL.

[lorecore]

Phillies (Worley) -155 vs Mets (Niese), o/u 7.5

The highest o/u the Phils have had this young season, and rightfully so. Their offense continues to be among the bottom feeders in almost all categories while their pitching remains at the top. As I mentioned in Worley's first start, the Phils consistently give him run support and hit the over last time in Pittsburgh - in part because Worley does not go as deep as his ace counterparts which exposes their bullpen earlier than usual.

Niese is a career 3-4, 4.07 ERA in 8 starts vs Philadelphia and an even worse 1-3, 5.72 ERA @ Citizens Bank Park. This season the Phillies field a stronger lineup vs LHP as well - with Victorino, Pence, and Mayberry all hitting LHP better than RHP. I would take the OVER 7.5

[arzoman]

Giants Update Saturday 4/14

Giants playing great ball right now. After starting the season 0-3, they took 2 of 3 in Colorado and yesterday they beat the Pirates 5-0 at home behind a complete game 1 hitter by Matt Cain. The pitching is finally looking normal again with one exeption...Tim Lincecum. He's had two HORRIBLE outings so far and this follows a HORRIBLE spring. If I weren't such a big fan, I'd bet against him the next time out. When he pitches the lines are, and will continue, to be inflated. Hopefully he turns things around, but you guys should consider fading him.

The big story right now in these parts (Bay Area) is the Giants offense. So far they are fourth in majors in runs scored, but the three teams ahead of them have played one more game. Part of that has to do with playing three games in Coors Field, but still this is big news. If their offense continues to play well, this just might be the team to beat.

No reason why they can't win today and tomorrow at home vs. Pitt. Will report back with updates on specific players soon.

[acfrahm]

White Sox Update:

Took 2/3 from Tigers. Over/Under is 1/7. I like them tonight as a short (-121) favorite at home against the Orioles. Humber is on the mound. The bullpen (with the exception of Ohman) has been pretty lights out. The bats picked up slightly this weekend and it would be a big boost for this team to get Viciedo going. Keep looking for spots where the White Sox seem undervalued and pound the unders.

[The Monarch]

Cincinnati Reds' Update: (4/18/12)

The clean-up spot has been an absolutely horror show, hitting a .093 clip. There's been a multitude of times that Cozart and Votto have been on base only to have not moved the entire inning. (Last night, Cozart BB, Votto Single, Rolen, Bruce, and Ludwick all K'ed) Rumor is that Brandon Phillips is going to be hitting clean-up for a while. We'll see if it pans out, anything is better than 37-year old Scott Rolen.

However, the thing that startles/angers me the most is Dusty 'Toothpick' Baker. Quite a few times this season he's just been outmanaged. Last night was atrocious and I can only hope that if Reds miss the playoffs they luck into Francona. In a close ball-game last night, Cards threw their top four relievers. Reds? They throw their long reliever, lefty specialist, and their #3 option. No Chapman (pitched Sunday) or Marshall (pitched 4 times this season, there's been 7 games that were decided by less than 2 runs or extra innings). This was not his only questionable decision on the night either. The division is Cards to win.

I would go into the positives, but I'll save that for after a day they win.

/rantover

[JSpauny]

Not sure when it's going to happen but Kyle Lohse is going to hit a wall here sometime and get rocked. I've been looking over his #s for the last day or so trying to explain whatever it is that he's doing out there. My only conclusion is that he's getting incredibly lucky.

The numbers (note: I will be comparing to career #s whenever possible):
2012 K/9: 4.87
Career K/9: 5.58
2012 BB/9: 0.89
Career BB/9: 2.67

So already we see that he's striking out less batters per 9 innings and walking far less batters per 9. What this tells me is that the other team is putting a lot of balls into play.

2012 BABIP: .172
Career BABIP: .300
2012 LOB%: 85.7 %
Career LOB%: 70%

His career numbers are almost exactly the typical MLB averages. As you can see his BABIP is absurdly low. So the batters are putting balls into play but just not getting hits. That will change. The batters that are getting on, aren't scoring either. Which based on his 15% increase in LOB%, will change soon too. Both of these stats scream luck and a lot of it.

2012 ERA: 0.89
2012 FIP: 2.41
2012 xFIP: 3.92

I have a boner for this comparison and yet again, it screams luck. xFIP has the best correlation with future performance. As you can see, his xFIP is a full 3 runs higher than his ERA.

Now those are some base stats, then I looked at batted ball data and pitch F/X data to see if maybe the luck can be explained.

Every one of his batted ball %s (Linedrive, Groundball and Flyball) are all within a couple %s of his career numbers so he's not inducing more GBs which would explain some of his luck.

Now onto the Pitch F/X data (I'll compare this purely to last years #s since this data can change significantly year to year. Career data can lead to large discrepancies that can alter conclusions).
[Just so you know last year his #s were 3.39 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.04 xFIP so he got lucky but had a good year]

Pitch percentages:
He is throwing the 4 seamer 7% more than last year (10.6 compared to 3.6). He's throwing the sinker 9 % less (45.8 compared to 54.9). He's throwing his slider 7% more (23.4 compared to 16.4) and his changeup (probably his best pitch) 6% less (13.9 compared to 19.1). He is throwing his curve about the same (5.1 compared to 5.7).

Pitch velocity: he has not gained or lost much velocity on any of his pitches. So not much to be said here.

Pitch rating:
His 4 seamer is rated .2 points higher (1.7 in 2012 and 1.5 in 2011) which he is throwing more.
His sinker is rated 5 points higher (3.9 compared to -2.9) which he is also throwing less.
His slider is rated 1.5 points lower (2.4 compared to 3.9) which he is throwing more.
His changeup (like I said before, his best pitch) is rated 9.5 points lower (.9 compared to 10.4) which he is also throwing less.
His curveball is rated about the same (-.7 compared to -.1).

Plate Discipline:
Lohse is getting 5% less swings on pitches outside of the zone and hitters are making 15% less contact on the pitches they do swing at outside of the zone.

Now his pitch movement shows some signs that he might have altered his release point. That could potentially explain the hot start, but I need to look into it more. He has increased the break some on his slider and changeup.

Overall, I'm guessing Lohse hits the wall sooner rather than later. It's going to happen.

[gynecologist]

Dodgers

[VincentValour]

Twins update 4/22

5-11
-2.95 units
O/U 7-9
run diff: -27 (30th)

After the awful start for the Twinkies, over the last week or so they have been feisty against the Yankees and Rays. On 4/23 Twins start a series vs Boston. After playing Rangers, Yankees, Rays, and Red sox the Twins schedule lightens up.
3 vs KC
3 @ LAA
3 @ SEA
3 vs LAA

The Twins should be able to get some wins in those 12 games, and produce some profit as the market is still bearish on them, especially against the overrated Angels.

Offense-

The Twins offense has picked up lately as the front of the lineup has been able to do some damage. Mauer is starting to pick it back up .295 average and .386 OBP, Willingham and Span are also putting up decent stats. The back end up the lineup has been and still is awful, don't see that changing this year as the Twins' are lacking depth.

Pitching-

This is where the Twins have been terrible. Only Boston has been worse in most pitching stats. Every single game this year Minnesota has allowed 3 runs or more. Hendricks is interesting as he is an unknown, and could do well against teams that have never faced him before. Pavano is very mediocre and is good for 3-5 runs against an outing. Liriano is erratic, he could pull of a gem of a start but will more likely give up more than 10 runs.

Betting-

The Twins should be a bet on team in the next few weeks, as their schedule gets softer. As long as the market is bearish on them, the Twins should be priced high enough to turn a profit.

The Twins are 7-9 O/U, I expect the overs to start hitting more. The front of the lineup is starting to hit, and the Twins pitching is dreadful. Recommend the Twins as an over team.

It is a small sample size but in each of the 5 wins the game total has been 9 or more. If the Twins win, odds are their bats are clicking. If playing their side, maybe put a little on a parlay with the over and get +400 or +500.