MLB team experts thread [volunteers wanted]

[VincentValour]

I'm a Twins fan, but to be honest haven't paid attention since last year's debacle. But I'll get caught up and contribute what I can.

[Marmon4270]

The Texas Rangers open up their season looking to get the bad taste of watching David Freese and the St. Louis Cardinals take away a World Series Title in a series of plays that will be remembered in Arlington for a long time. The Rangers, coming off their second World Series appearance, open up at home with with a 1:00 start against the Chicago White Sox and new head coach Robin Ventura, more famous in Texas for being the recipient of a Nolan Ryan whipping, when he charged the mound on August 4, 1993. In case you have forgotten, see the video below.

see http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?conten...745349&v=3



On to today, Colby Lewis takes the mound for the Rangers, going against John Danks. Early money is on Texas, so if you like the Rangers, bet early. Wait if you like the White Sox as this line opened with the Rangers as heavy faves at -175, and has been bet up to -200. I think the Rangers win today, but that's a lot of juice for opening day. Good luck everyone.

Rangers are 53-17 in their last 70 games as a favorite:

Any questions, fire away.

Mike

[Skating Tripods]

Guess I'll take the Comeback Kids of the Cuyahoga.

[JSpauny]

Cards officially set rotation for Brewers series. Garcia today (Friday), Wainwright tomorrow (Saturday) and Lynn Sunday.

[zkr4]

The Braves just finished up with their opening day game against the mets. Lots of carryover, hitters couldn't hit, and pitchers pitched. Seriously though, a couple things to get to:

Chipper says he's coming along in his minor knee surgery rehab, and thinks he could be back before the targeted date of the home opener.

While the manager, Gonzalez, said Hanson's pitch count would be about 115 for today, he was hooked during the 6th and had pitched outstanding so far, other than a couple batter stretch. Looks like Gonzalez will continue with the quick-hook, which is bad news IMO, because we have very good starting pitching and because our middle relief is suspect at best.

The new SS Pastornicky had a good game, a triple and drew a walk. Kid's got some pretty good speed.

And some old news, we traded for Juan Francisco the other day, got him from cincy. He's a decent power-hitting prospect and I'm watching him anxiously this year as someone with have to fill some pretty big holes at Third next year.

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-06-2012 09:32 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Guess I'll take the Comeback Kids of the Cuyahoga.

Who is that? The Mariners?

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-06-2012 09:51 AM)zkr4 Wrote:  The Braves just finished up with their opening day game against the mets. Lots of carryover, hitters couldn't hit, and pitchers pitched. Seriously though, a couple things to get to:

Chipper says he's coming along in his minor knee surgery rehab, and thinks he could be back before the targeted date of the home opener.

While the manager, Gonzalez, said Hanson's pitch count would be about 115 for today, he was hooked during the 6th and had pitched outstanding so far, other than a couple batter stretch. Looks like Gonzalez will continue with the quick-hook, which is bad news IMO, because we have very good starting pitching and because our middle relief is suspect at best.

The new SS Pastornicky had a good game, a triple and drew a walk. Kid's got some pretty good speed.

And some old news, we traded for Juan Francisco the other day, got him from cincy. He's a decent power-hitting prospect and I'm watching him anxiously this year as someone with have to fill some pretty big holes at Third next year.

See, this is a well written, to-the-point, mini update. Exactly what we're looking for on a regular basis from everyone.

[Skating Tripods]

(04-06-2012 10:04 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Who is that? The Mariners?

Bob Uecker calls the Indians the "Comeback Kids of the Cuyahoga" in Major League 2. Throughout the first two movies, they're also referred to as Erie Warriors and Sons of Geronimo.

The Cuyahoga is the river we managed to set on fire in 1969.

[Beyond the Bets]

It doesn't get much more affordable than this for the Cubs when they've got the better pitcher on the mound at home. I'm seeing Cubs -114 at some places (you can get it at -108 to -110 on reduced at some books), which isn't bad.

Garza, you might recall, had a few early struggles when he came over from the AL last season. He seemed to get more comfortable as the year progressed, especially late in the year, but I wonder if his Saturday opponent — Gio Gonzalez — will experience the same early troubles.

I'm always leery of guys who move from the AL to the NL, and when you factor in a game at Wrigley Field with the possibility of strong winds (blowing out to LEFT at 15 MPH today), there's always a potential for a blow-up.

The Cubs have stacked nine righties against Gonzalez, and they hit lefties pretty well last year. I'm curious to see just how good Gonzalez is when he's not playing half his games in Oakland.

I actually like the Cubs in this one at a price that I think is more than fair. If you guys want my premium, super-insider info, just send me $1,000 via PayPal.

[acfrahm]

I'll take the White Sox. Everyone is really down on them to start the year, and there could be some value early as I think that a few guys have bounceback seasons.

[jac1864]

yankees. jac1864

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-07-2012 12:11 PM)acfrahm Wrote:  I'll take the White Sox. Everyone is really down on them to start the year, and there could be some value early as I think that a few guys have bounceback seasons.

Great, thanks.

[Beyond the Bets]

Congrats to Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol for stinking yet again. Nats with four in the eighth ... and counting.

[lorecore]

Phillies are -160 tonight in Pittsburgh, o/u 6.5

Laynce Nix gets the start at 1B, which means the platoon of him and Ty Wigginton that many thought before the Spring is still in tact despite very poor numbers for both.

I posted earlier that Lee is holding the Pirates lineup collectively at a .141 average and the Phillies were 22-10 in Lee's starts, but I wouldn't lay -160 on them today, the value isn't there. Phils have played down to their competition, especially vs Pittsburgh, in recent years. When Halladay was -160ish, thats understandable - but Lee has too many up and downs in my opinion.

I don't recommend anything on this game but if I had to - take the under even at 6.5. The Phils lineup looks to be stronger vs LHP with their 3 best hitters (Pence, Victorino, Mayberry) all favoring lefties - and they have RHP Karstens who held them 4 runs in two starts last year.

[SkyBlues42]

Padres -103
Dodgers -107

The number doesn't surprise me at all. Yeah, Los Angeles has gotten the better of San Diego -- winning 12 of the last 14 -- but the Padres have a pretty good pitcher on the mound tonight. Dustin Moseley started 20 games last year and had a 3.30 ERA, but was just 3-10 overall before his season ended with a shoulder injury.

San Diego hasn't given him run production, and it doesn't appear that they'll be able to do that this year, either. It's also not very wise to make a play on a pitcher coming off and injury.

Starting for Los Angeles is Chris Capuano. He typically struggles early on, shows improvement for a couple of months, the begins to fade again. Last year in April, he posted a 6.04 ERA in 25.1 innings pitched.

But the current Padres' lineup has been average against him. Combined they are hitting .256 in 43 AB's. Among those at bats are 0 home runs and only 4 RBI's. Be careful, though, because it's a very small sample size. Orlando Hudson has the most AB's against Capuano with 7.

A side might be difficult to chose, and if I had to pick, I'd lean toward the Dodgers simply based on the way they hit in the first two games, and Moseley coming off an injury. A better play might be on the total, OVER 7.

Interesting fact: San Diego hasn't started a season 0-3 since 2003 (ESPN).

[ChiefZilla]

I'll go ahead and take the Royals. Didn't see anyone signed up for them.

"Promising" year in KC, but the development of the hitting is far, far ahead of the pitching at this point. Royals pulled out the 6-3 win at LAA today after starting with a 5-0 defeat on Opening Night, as both Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas — two former first-round picks and two of the brightest stars on an extremely young roster — homered on deep shots to left field.

I put "promising" in quotes because that's what we call it in KC when our team is expected to maybe — MAYBE — go above .500 for the first time since 2003 and second time since 1994. But it's a weaker AL Central and the Royals could hang around.

One minor concern for me early ... I'm not sure how the bullpen is going to handle the loss of Joakim Soria. They imploded for five runs in the last part of Friday night's loss, and then Broxton — the new closer — was touched up for a run on Saturday. Lots of guys who have shown potential but not a lot of true, reliable throwers out there. Just something to keep an eye on.

This team could be a great over candidate for much of this season, IMO.

[lorecore]

Phllies(Worley) -130 @ Pirates(McDonald), o/u 7.5

The Phillies are trotting out one of the worst lineups in the past decade tonight with major downgrades at C(Schneider), LF(Pierre), and 3B(Wigginton) while Thome gets his first start at 1B in 4 seasons. Anyone who has watched these two teams fail at the plate would be running towards the under, BUT its jumped up to 7.5 which tells me Vegas is on to the ugly defense and drop off in starters on both sides and trying to lure the unders in.

Grab the OVER with confidence. A bit less confident, but recommend parlaying Phillies -130 with the over. They love hitting for Worley, going 20-5 in his appearances last season while giving him an average of 5.6 run support per start.

[Skating Tripods]

Windy conditions down at the Jake today. Believe it's a west wind, so it should be blowing left to right, across the field and in. I think that helps Derek Lowe. I don't know anything about Joel Carreno, but what I do know is that the Indians are 12-for-89 (.134) through two games.

Like the under today. Lowe's due for a bounceback year and the Indians infield defense has been solid through the first two games. Kotchman's a vacuum over at 1B. He also hasn't hit a ball out of the IF in his 12 AB.

The Indians started 0-2 last year with two blowout losses, won the third game of the year, and rattled off a 30-13 record up until May 23. I'm hoping for more of the same, although the last two losses were much harder to swallow than blowouts.

[Skating Tripods]

Indians with two errors in the 4th inning. I jinxed them.

[acfrahm]

I think there is value on the White Sox tonight as a +150-160 dog. Wegner is behind the plate, and last year he had a Home Team W/L of 6-13. Floyd is on the mound, and I like him to have a little bit of a bounceback year. He pitched well against Texas last year. The White Sox bullpen should also be a strength this year. Some people I respect like the over in tonight's game, personally I won't be playing it.

The past two games were final scores of 4-3 and 3-2. I think tonight is close as well.