MLB stats: Which ones are relevant to handicapping?

[JSpauny]

(05-08-2012 10:41 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Overall, awesome article BetATL. Well done.

And mount, I've wondered the same thing about guys like Votto. I don't watch many Reds games, but given his decently high K numbers (125+ the last two seasons), he seems like the type of hitter who waits for his pitch, even if it means sometimes you strike out. And when you wait for your pitch, you'll drive the ball more. And when you drive the ball more, I assume you'll have a higher BABIP than guys who aren't as patient.

So if Votto is an exception, aren't there others?

BABIP is a very interesting stat. It absolutely can point to good/bad luck, but as an end all number it's poor. It always needs context.

It's a mistake to compare it purely against the normal league average (not that BetATL said that). Speed guys and LD hitters will have a higher BABIP almost every time. The reasons behind that are simple. Speed guys can leg out a shot to the hole or a slow roller to 3rd that most hitters would be out on. Line drives have been proven to be the best type of hit so hitters who hit more LDs than the average player will naturally have a higher BABIP.

The opposite is true of GB hitters. GB hitters without speed (I had a good example but completely forgot who it was) will naturally have a lower BABIP under regular circumstances.

For Votto in particular, his LD rate in his career has been 24.4% which is pretty high. The last two years it's been 27.5% and 36.2%. Those are pretty insane LD numbers, but since LDs are typically hits and not outs, his BABIP will be high. His BABIP last year was .349 and this year it's .388. Compared to his career of .353, those numbers seem pretty normal, especially if you factor in his high LD%.

That's why BABIP isn't a vacuum stat like mount says. Have to have context behind it. But with context, it's an extremely valuable tool.