MLB start of the season notes

[TheHandicaper]

Through the first month of the season, things here are some things I've learned about teams:

1) The Angels bullpen can't even hold a cup of cofee -5in-
2) Texas vs a lefty, bad situation to bet against.
3) Houston is a much much better team than last year. They can hit. *Value*
4) If McCan stays healthy, and he continues to call games, Atlanta is a scary team. Just a great all around team.
5) The White Sox will go over their season total. Statring pitching is there. Decent mediocre team.
6) Kansas will be the streaky team we know. Loose 12, win 5.
7) The Cardinals are not this good. At least I think they should regress at any point now.
8) Pïttsburgh team total unders will still be valuable for a couple of months. Unders as well.
9) Red Sox game: Automatic look at the over.
10) The Nationals go deep this year. I mean, they're doing this without Storen, Morse and Zimmerman now. Their pitching is just that good. I should have pulled the trigger pre-season. It's fade time though, the next couple of weeks.
10 b) Oddsmakers haven't cut up to how good Gio Gonzalez really is. Moving out of that Oakland park was the best thing that could've occurred.

I'd love to hear if you disagree on this. I you have other notes. If you agree.

I also have some feelings on particular SP, and I've been tweeting them out. A fade thread to summarize results, and propose pitchers might not be a bad idea.

[JayPrimetown]

Some additional thoughts:

1. Miami Marlins continue to be overvalued. Can't score, pitching is mediocre.
2a. Below average hitting teams continue to lose games despite having ace pitching (Halladay the latest example tonight).
2b. Teams that can't hit with high juice should be faded.
3. Arizona may not be as good as last year, but they aren't far off. Should still win NL West.
4. Yankees should be looked at as an over play every night.
5. Milwaukee is a much different offensive team this season. No Fielder means Braun won't be the same.

[VincentValour]

(04-27-2012 10:32 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  Some additional thoughts:

1. Miami Marlins continue to be overvalued. Can't score, pitching is mediocre.
2a. Below average hitting teams continue to lose games despite having ace pitching (Halladay the latest example tonight).
2b. Teams that can't hit with high juice should be faded.
3. Arizona may not be as good as last year, but they aren't far off. Should still win NL West.
4. Yankees should be looked at as an over play every night.
5. Milwaukee is a much different offensive team this season. No Fielder means Braun won't be the same.

As should the Twins. Pitching is awful, and lineup is underrated.

[Skating Tripods]

To whoever asked about knowing an umpire's strike zone, I present you this: http://brooksbaseball.net/umpire_cards/ump_Search.php

[SkyBlues42]

(04-27-2012 10:32 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  Some additional thoughts:

1. Miami Marlins continue to be overvalued. Can't score, pitching is mediocre.
2a. Below average hitting teams continue to lose games despite having ace pitching (Halladay the latest example tonight).
2b. Teams that can't hit with high juice should be faded.
3. Arizona may not be as good as last year, but they aren't far off. Should still win NL West.
4. Yankees should be looked at as an over play every night.
5. Milwaukee is a much different offensive team this season. No Fielder means Braun won't be the same.

You can almost put all of the blame on Reyes. He's not getting on base and is off to a VERY slow start. Have to imagine he'll turn it around, but until then, the Marlins will likely continue to be overvalued based on name recognition alone.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Cubs and unders have been correlated this year.

[SkyBlues42]

Pittsburgh, too. Or at least just the under.

[VincentValour]

Kind of going with the correlated theme, if my Twinkies win they score a lot of runs. They are +220 against an overrated Angels team tomorrow, a Parlay of the Twins and Over pays 5-1. Will probably put a couple cents on that for the series, given how bearish the Twins stock is and how Bullish the Angels stock remains.

[SkyBlues42]

(04-29-2012 10:49 PM)VincentValour Wrote:  Kind of going with the correlated theme, if my Twinkies win they score a lot of runs. They are +220 against an overrated Angels team tomorrow, a Parlay of the Twins and Over pays 5-1. Will probably put a couple cents on that for the series, given how bearish the Twins stock is and how Bullish the Angels stock remains.

So.. when is Pujols going to start hitting -- home runs?

[VincentValour]

(04-29-2012 11:38 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(04-29-2012 10:49 PM)VincentValour Wrote:  Kind of going with the correlated theme, if my Twinkies win they score a lot of runs. They are +220 against an overrated Angels team tomorrow, a Parlay of the Twins and Over pays 5-1. Will probably put a couple cents on that for the series, given how bearish the Twins stock is and how Bullish the Angels stock remains.

So.. when is Pujols going to start hitting -- home runs?

Very well could be against the Twinkies their rotation is god awful

[Skating Tripods]

(04-29-2012 11:38 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  So.. when is Pujols going to start hitting -- home runs?

He looked like shit against the Indians. Masterson, Gomez, and Lowe just kept challenging him. He didn't even have many loud outs. His plate discipline was gone. He was down 0-2 or 1-2 every at bat and was swinging at shit that was head high or way in on the thumbs.

Honestly, he looked lost. Became a total guess hitter. Way out in front of every breaking ball, late on fastballs. Looked a guy with zero confidence.

He's 100% pressing.

But after that first one gets out of the way, he might hit 4 or 5 in a week.

[SkyBlues42]

(04-30-2012 12:19 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(04-29-2012 11:38 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  So.. when is Pujols going to start hitting -- home runs?

He looked like shit against the Indians. Masterson, Gomez, and Lowe just kept challenging him. He didn't even have many loud outs. His plate discipline was gone. He was down 0-2 or 1-2 every at bat and was swinging at shit that was head high or way in on the thumbs.

Honestly, he looked lost. Became a total guess hitter. Way out in front of every breaking ball, late on fastballs. Looked a guy with zero confidence.

He's 100% pressing.

But after that first one gets out of the way, he might hit 4 or 5 in a week.

That's what I was thinking. If you can time it right, might be a good "buy now" spot for the stock market approach. Even if the lines are too high, still might be able to find some value on Overs. I was thinking the same could apply to the Marlins, but I'd rather just avoid them. At least for now.

[RyanParrill]

(04-30-2012 12:42 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(04-30-2012 12:19 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(04-29-2012 11:38 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  So.. when is Pujols going to start hitting -- home runs?

He looked like shit against the Indians. Masterson, Gomez, and Lowe just kept challenging him. He didn't even have many loud outs. His plate discipline was gone. He was down 0-2 or 1-2 every at bat and was swinging at shit that was head high or way in on the thumbs.

Honestly, he looked lost. Became a total guess hitter. Way out in front of every breaking ball, late on fastballs. Looked a guy with zero confidence.

He's 100% pressing.

But after that first one gets out of the way, he might hit 4 or 5 in a week.

That's what I was thinking. If you can time it right, might be a good "buy now" spot for the stock market approach. Even if the lines are too high, still might be able to find some value on Overs. I was thinking the same could apply to the Marlins, but I'd rather just avoid them. At least for now.

Had a buddy tweet out that Pujols' numbers have went down each of the past 4 years (assuming he wasn't sending out bullshit). I know he had some sick numbers anyways, but this isn't the most encouraging sign, especially after this start to the season...

[SkyBlues42]

Yeah I actually saw that statistic somewhere. Don't remember where, though. But still surprising to see a lack of power thus far.

[ChicosBailBonds]

To back up my cubs unders, their OF hit their 1st HR of the year yesterday. They hit 8 this month, fewest since 1947.

Did hear an interesting, I'll have to do some digging here. There are the fewest IBB issued in April in 20 years.

[Skating Tripods]

(04-30-2012 10:39 AM)RyanParrill Wrote:  Had a buddy tweet out that Pujols' numbers have went down each of the past 4 years (assuming he wasn't sending out bullshit). I know he had some sick numbers anyways, but this isn't the most encouraging sign, especially after this start to the season...

Wonder if that perennial elbow injury that he has is starting to take its toll.

[JSpauny]

As a Cards fan here's my take on Pujols.

This is the same shit he's done the last few years. He stops being patient and presses everything. He never had this problem his first 7-8 years which is why he was a machine. He still is, but the pressing this was a recent development.

The numbers show the issues:
K%: 13.8 compared to 9.5 for career
BB%: 6.4 compared to 13 for career
Outside Zone Swing %: 33.3 compared to 25.2 for career and 28.4 last year
Swing %: 46.5 compared to 40.8 for career and 43.9 last year

He's swinging at more pitches outside of the zone and swinging more often in general. These both equate to less walks, more strikeouts, and worse ABs.

Pujols is also getting absolutely murdered on the 2 seamer, sinker, curve and changeup.

2 seam: -3.35 compared to .96 for career
sinker: -3.56 compared to -.19 for career
curve: -6.7 compared to .62 for career
change: -3.95 compared to .84 for career

He's seeing far less 4 seamers (25.1% compared to 42.6 for career and 33.4 last year) and far more 2 seamers (16% this year compared to 5.9 for career and 11.2 last year). He's been a great 4 seam hitter in his career and it seems pitchers are figuring out not to throw it to him.

So it looks like pitchers may have finally found his weakness (the 2 seamer) and it's up to him to adjust to it.

But two things that should bring hope:
BABIP: .253 compared to .310 for career (so the luck will change but he hasn't been above .300 since 08 so this might not be a drastic jump)
LD%: 24 compared to 19.1 for career

This can't last. He might not put up the .300/30/100 that is his benchmark, but he's going to start hitting soon.