MLB Season Win Totals Discussion

[BetATL]

First 2012 MLB season win totals were released last night by the Atlantis Casino.

Arizona Diamondbacks 84.5
Atlanta Braves 86.5
Baltimore Orioles 70.5
Boston Red Sox 87.5
Chicago Cubs 73.5
Chicago White Sox 76.5
Cincinnati Reds 86.5 (-120o)
Cleveland Indians 75.5
Colorado Rockies 82.5
Detroit Tigers 94.5
Houston Astros 62.5
Kansas City Royals 78.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 81.5
Miami Marlins 82.5
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5
Minnesota Twins 74.5 (-120u)
New York Mets 74.5 (-120u)
New York Yankees 93.5 (-120u)
Oakland Athletics 72.5
Philadelphia Phillies 95.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 73.5 (-120u)
San Diego Padres 70.5
San Francisco Giants 87.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
St. Louis Cardinals 87.5 (-120u)
Tampa Bay Rays 87.5
Texas Rangers 94.5
Toronto Blue Jays 81
Washington Nationals 80.5

Initial thoughts on some of these?

A few that stick out to me are Cardinals Under, Cubs Over, Rangers Under and Braves Over.

[JSpauny]

I'll post more when I finish running my wins totals projections (I'm done with the NL about halfway done with the AL).

I wouldn't be so quick to jump on the Card Under. I think 87.5 is about spot on. I projected 87 and my model said 87.4. Don't overrate losing Pujols, similar to Milwaukee, Beltran replaces his numbers more than people might immediately think. Add in the return of Adam Wainwright (Cy young caliber pre-injury) and the Cards pick up two studs even though they only lost 1 (granted Pujols is on another level compared to these two). The new manager thing is a little scary, but remember that he was basically groomed by TLR and Duncan when he played here, chances are he won't change much.

However, a big injury or two and Under 87.5 is a lock so everything I just said could go to shit.

Here would be my three biggest NL plays based on my model.
Miami Marlins Over 82.5
My model says 87. This has potential to be a pretty nasty lineup if Hanley commits to 3B. Lot of speed and OB at the top with excellent power in the middle. Not a bad pitching staff either if JJ comes back healthy.

Milwaukee Brewers Over 82.5
My model says 87 here too. All depends on if Braun plays but has to be the best staff in the NLC. Aram should help replace some of Prince's numbers. Gamel isn't a bad replacement at 1B either. Think the defending NLC champs are being underrated right now. Basically the same team minus Fielder (and maybe Braun) but with Aram and Gamel (a pretty solid prospect) added.

Philadelphia Phillies Under 95.5
My model says 90. The east is going to be pretty good this year. Miami and Atlanta are both stacked and I think Washington could surprise a lot of people. I don't think losing Howard is the end of the world, but I don't think they are going to beat up on the NLE like they have in recent years.

Hopefully I'll finish my AL stuff by tomorrow, then I can chime in on that as well.

[Beyond the Bets]

Cardinals under is a lock. I hope that number stays in that same range when offshores release.

[JSpauny]

(02-15-2012 01:27 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Cardinals under is a lock. I hope that number stays in that same range when offshores release.

What's your reasoning exactly? I'm just curious.

[Wally Goosefeathers]

(02-15-2012 01:03 PM)BetATL Wrote:  First 2012 MLB season win totals were released last night by the Atlantis Casino.

Arizona Diamondbacks 84.5
Atlanta Braves 86.5
Baltimore Orioles 70.5
Boston Red Sox 87.5
Chicago Cubs 73.5
Chicago White Sox 76.5
Cincinnati Reds 86.5 (-120o)
Cleveland Indians 75.5
Colorado Rockies 82.5
Detroit Tigers 94.5
Houston Astros 62.5
Kansas City Royals 78.5
Los Angeles Angels 89.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 81.5
Miami Marlins 82.5
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5
Minnesota Twins 74.5 (-120u)
New York Mets 74.5 (-120u)
New York Yankees 93.5 (-120u)
Oakland Athletics 72.5
Philadelphia Phillies 95.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 73.5 (-120u)
San Diego Padres 70.5
San Francisco Giants 87.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
St. Louis Cardinals 87.5 (-120u)
Tampa Bay Rays 87.5
Texas Rangers 94.5
Toronto Blue Jays 81
Washington Nationals 80.5

Initial thoughts on some of these?

A few that stick out to me are Cardinals Under, Cubs Over, Rangers Under and Braves Over.

I like these:
Oakland OVER
Miami OVER
Cleveland OVER

[Beyond the Bets]

(02-15-2012 01:35 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  

(02-15-2012 01:27 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Cardinals under is a lock. I hope that number stays in that same range when offshores release.

What's your reasoning exactly? I'm just curious.

Puppet master is gone. La Russa is the ONLY manager that I truly believe is good for an extra 8-10 wins per year.

[BetATL]

The Cardinals play for me doesn't really have anything to do with the managerial change but does have a lot to do with the loss of Pujols.

I actually think the Pujols loss will hurt more then even advertised. He, like no other player in the game, demands so much respect in the middle of the lineup. His plate presence and patience completely changes the way pitchers would pitch to the first 4 batters in the Cards lineup.

I'm not sold on the trio of Berkman, Beltran and Holliday without the presence of Pujols in the lineup.

Agree though that they are getting a stud back in Wainwright. I think the Cardinals will be a good under team, especially early on in the season.

---

The Marlins are going to be an interesting team this year.

They seem to be setting up to have either a really big year or an extremely disappointing year. There is going to be a lot of renewed optimism with the new ballpark, new manager Ozzie and addition of Jose Reyes.

However, there are a few key questions marks.

-How will Hanley accept the move to 3rd, can he share the spotlight with Reyes?
-How healthy will JJ be?
-What kind of pitching will they get behind JJ?
-Can all the personalities down there work together?

[Skating Tripods]

From other thread:

Texas under would be my second biggest play. They didn't exactly get any better and they lost CJ Wilson. Their rotation is loaded with question marks. The Angels and Athletics both got better this offseason. Texas was 40-17 against the West last year and only won 96. How they win 95 is something I just can't envision. I guess Ogando back to the rotation is an upgrade, but I can't see them matching last year. I'm not buying the Darvish hype either.

Also like the White Sox under 76.5. They're not a good team. Their starting OF is projected to be De Aza, Rios, and probably Fukudome. Lost their #1 in Buehrle, traded away their closer which will weaken their overall bullpen whether Sale or Thornton close, assuming Sale doesn't start. Plus, Robin Ventura's first year as a skipper. They're a team I see as being in shambles. They may not even win 70 and will probably trade Konerko by the deadline.

Arizona at 84.5? Seriously? I realize Ian Kennedy won't have a ridiculous year again, but they're still the best team in the West. Daniel Hudson might be the most underrated SP in the NL. 3.5/1 K/BB ratio. Added another bona fide SP in Cahill. Drew should be healthy this year and Kubel. I can't believe this number.

Also, Indians over.

Thinking Colorado under 82.5 as well. Very young starting rotation. No true workhorse. Guess Guthrie is the closest one. They'll hit, but they can't pitch. Also, Betancourt's the closer? That severely weakens their middle relief.

Pomeranz will make that rotation, but him and Alex White are both very young and throw a lot of pitches. Neither guy will be efficient. That'll tax a mediocre bullpen and put a lot of pressure on the rest of the rotation, which isn't very good.

Plenty of promising rotation arms, but none of them are ready to be solid major league pitchers.

The NL West is pretty solid top to bottom. Colorado's got their work cut out for them. I don't see them being over .500.

[JSpauny]

(02-15-2012 02:02 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Puppet master is gone. La Russa is the ONLY manager that I truly believe is good for an extra 8-10 wins per year.

I'm a tiny bit worried by Matheny, no doubt, but this is still one of the best lineups in the NL. Don't count out that Matheny basically ran the game when he caught here. He was TLR's general on the field.

But Matheny is going to have a better staff and a better bullpen to work with this year than TLR had last year.

(02-15-2012 02:03 PM)BetATL Wrote:  The Cardinals play for me doesn't really have anything to do with the managerial change but does have a lot to do with the loss of Pujols.

I actually think the Pujols loss will hurt more then even advertised. He, like no other player in the game, demands so much respect in the middle of the lineup. His plate presence and patience completely changes the way pitchers would pitch to the first 4 batters in the Cards lineup.

I'm not sold on the trio of Berkman, Beltran and Holliday without the presence of Pujols in the lineup.

Agree though that they are getting a stud back in Wainwright. I think the Cardinals will be a good under team, especially early on in the season.

---

I agree that things will change without Pujols in the lineup. But the Cardinals led the NL in most of the major saber categories last season with Pujols having a bad year (by his standards) and pitchers not exactly giving him the same amount of respect. I watched enough games last year, they didn't shy away from him like in years past. Yes, Pujols is a transcendent player, but last year was the best Cardinals offense in quite some time with Pujols struggling. It's just my opinion, but I don't think his loss will be as significant as it seems, and the numbers tend to back up my opinion.

[BetATL]

(02-15-2012 02:09 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Texas under would be my second biggest play. They didn't exactly get any better and they lost CJ Wilson. Their rotation is loaded with question marks. The Angels and Athletics both got better this offseason. Texas was 40-17 against the West last year and only won 96. How they win 95 is something I just can't envision. I guess Ogando back to the rotation is an upgrade, but I can't see them matching last year. I'm not buying the Darvish hype either.

Good analysis. Will probably play this once lines are released off-shore.

[ChiefZilla]

No one's interested in the Royals under? It's free money every year!

[Skating Tripods]

(02-15-2012 02:33 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  No one's interested in the Royals under? It's free money every year!

If the Royals find somebody who can pitch, they could be an 85-win team. I'm curious to see how Aaron Crow does moving back to the rotation. He's got electric stuff, but I've only seen it one or two innings at a time. Can he sustain it for 6 or 7 is the big question?

Their offense could be a top 5 AL offense.

They're a slightly above average defensive team. Good ballpark for their team. Big alleys, good for extra base hits.

Broxton's a solid miss-bats kind of addition to the bullpen. Jeffress has great stuff. Sanchez is a decent add to the rotation.

If they get a starter or two to overachieve, they're dangerous.

[AJP]

Of the numbers above...

Red Sox Over 87.5 - I don't understand this line. They won 6 games in September and still finished with 90 wins. They get Buccholz back, lose Lackey (which can only be addition by subtraction), replace Papelbon with Bailey, and add Melancon. Ellsbury should regress a bit but Crawford should get better. This team has failed to win 88 games one time in the last decade. And they won 86 that year. Too much talent here to be an 87 win team or less.

Tigers Under 94.5 - I wrote a fairly lengthy writeup on twitter a few weeks back if anyone cares to read it. It needs an edit as I missed a couple key points both for and against the Tigers. But I'd be more than happy with 94.5 http://www.twitlonger.com/show/fh9cqd

Rangers Under 94.5 - Just not that impressed with the roster for a total this size. They'll still score runs but that staff doesn't do anything for me. Away from Texas I think they'll be closer to .500. They picked up 13 wins vs the Angels last year and I can't see them doing that again. Don't have much to say about this one, more of a gut feeling than anything.

White Sox Over 76.5 - I dont think this team is as bad as everyone is making them out to be. This is a team that regularly competes at around .500 or better and still have the pieces to be at least a .500 team. For those that didn't read the Tigers write up I had, I talked about how that team and individual players over-performed a year and ago and are due for regression. Complete opposite with the White Sox. This team won 79 games a year ago and were flat out awful. How much worse can Adam Dunn get? Alex Rios? Gordon Beckham? Brent Morel? Jake Peavy? John Danks? Matt Thornton? Alexei had the worst average, least amount of sb's, and tied for the least amount of hr's in his career. AJ had the least amount of runs, homeruns, and rbi's as he's had as a member of the White Sox. Pierre is gone and while he played much better 2nd half, he was pathetic for half the season. If I'm not mistaken, at one point a decent way into the season the White Sox had 3 of the 4 worst players in baseball according to WAR with Dunn, Rios, and Pierre. I like De Aza to give more than Pierre did. And I like Viciedo to give close to what Quentin did. Sale replaces Buehrle in the rotation which I think is a good replacement minus some innings. Their major question mark is the bullpen and could make or break the season win total. But I think there's enough there at the backend with Thornton and Crain, even with a veteran in Ohman to an extent, and I have faith in Don Cooper that this bullpen and team will do enough to win 77 or more games. Bottom line, being outside of maybe Humber and Santos' replacement, I believe this entire team is due to either stay the same, get better, or in some cases, get much better. And they were already a 79 win team.

I was also looking to play KC over but no way could I play it at 78.5

[ChiefZilla]

(02-15-2012 02:55 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  If the Royals find somebody who can pitch, they could be an 85-win team. I'm curious to see how Aaron Crow does moving back to the rotation. He's got electric stuff, but I've only seen it one or two innings at a time. Can he sustain it for 6 or 7 is the big question?

Their offense could be a top 5 AL offense.

They're a slightly above average defensive team. Good ballpark for their team. Big alleys, good for extra base hits.

Broxton's a solid miss-bats kind of addition to the bullpen. Jeffress has great stuff. Sanchez is a decent add to the rotation.

If they get a starter or two to overachieve, they're dangerous.

Yeah, I love the Royals and like what they're building. My constant optimism has just been beaten into the ground with one of the worst 20-year stretches for any team in pro sports history (no joke).

Loads of young talent. I'm in that "I want to get my hopes up, but not really until I see anything on the field" stage.

[Skating Tripods]

(02-15-2012 05:46 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Yeah, I love the Royals and like what they're building. My constant optimism has just been beaten into the ground with one of the worst 20-year stretches for any team in pro sports history (no joke).

Loads of young talent. I'm in that "I want to get my hopes up, but not really until I see anything on the field" stage.

To me, they're the hitting version of the Rays. Years of a shitty franchise eventually lead to enough first round picks that actually pan out. Took Gordon forever to come around, but he looks like a legit player now. Above average LF too.

They've just gotta find some pitching. Figure out who's a keeper and trade some young talent for an arm or two.

As an Indians fan, they scare me. They scare me a lot.

[ChiefZilla]

(02-15-2012 05:52 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  To me, they're the hitting version of the Rays. Years of a shitty franchise eventually lead to enough first round picks that actually pan out. Took Gordon forever to come around, but he looks like a legit player now. Above average LF too.

They've just gotta find some pitching. Figure out who's a keeper and trade some young talent for an arm or two.

As an Indians fan, they scare me. They scare me a lot.

Nail on the head there. That's exactly what they have to do to compete.

It's great to acquire a bunch of young talent, but it's pretty loaded on the hitting side of things. And there's a second part to running a successful small-market franchise -- You really have to hold your own (and win) in the trade market.

That's what the Rays were able to do successfully. Build up the talent in the system, and then make some shrewd signings/trades to supplement that talent.

I'll be interested to see if Dayton Moore can do the same, because his previous trade resume is .... disappointing, to say the least.

[Beyond the Bets]

Great MLB discussion, folks. Can't wait for the season. Probably my favorite sport to discuss on a day-to-day basis. Well, outside of college football.

[JSpauny]

Ok so LVH released their O/Us this morning and Cards opened at 82 and was bet up to 83. I posed the question to BTB on twitter asking his thoughts on that number (he had previously said under 87 was his best bet). He replied with under again. Now, I didn't agree with under 87 being a lock or anything but I thought that was probably a decent play. I couldn't see this current team winning over 90 so under 87 wasn't a bad play, in my opinion. However, I think under 83 is crazy. Time to break out the novel. The first part of this might seem off, but it'll make sense at the end, I just like to provide the basis before I drive home the point.

Let me start by saying injuries are very hard to predict. They happen, obviously, but no one can say for certain if Berkman, Waino, Carp, Furcal and Beltran will make it through a whole season or not. Couple injuries and under 83 could certainly be in play. No injuries and 87 wins could be in play.

Last season, this team won 90 games with Pujols having his worst statistical season, their ace Adam Wainwright missing the whole year, their bullpen being in utter disarray until the end of July, Matt Holliday missing 40 games, David Freese missing 60+ games, Pujols missing 15 games, and bench stud Allen Craig missing almost 90 games. Safe to say the injury bug got this team hard last year. But the team still won 90 games.

Now I agree 100% with BTB, that with a normal manager that team collapses and struggles to win 80. TLR was without a doubt worth 8-12 extra wins last season. I will concede that point.

Now, the Cardinals really struggled before the Colby Rasmus trade. The trade was completed on July 28th, with players first contributing on July 29th. On July 28th the Cardinals record was 55-50. At this point, the Cardinals offense was hanging in there and the main weaknesses of the team were a struggling bullpen and a taxed starting rotation (McClellan and Westbrook were throwing BP to the opposition 2 times a week). Here were some of their notable MLB ranks pre-AS break (had to use pre-AS break and post-AS break as splits. best i could find).
Offense
-Hits: 3rd
-Runs: 5th
-HRs: 12th
-RBI: 4th
-Avg: 3rd
-OPS: 4th
Pitching
-ERA: 19th
-Saves: 10th
-Ks: 23rd
-BAA: 23rd
-OPSA: 18th
-BLSVs: tied for 4th most
-WHIP: 18th

Now, as you can see pre-AS break this team was pretty dominant on offense but their pitching was mediocre at best. They blew a lot of close games that they should have won. Their record at this point was 49-43. Project that for 162 games and 86 wins is what they should have won. Pre-trade they were 55-50. Project that for 162 games and 85 wins is the number. Those don't exactly scream playoffs or even great team.

Now the Jays trade was Rasmus (struggling), Trevor Miller (couldn't get a teeballer out), and two throw-aways in PJ Walters and Brian Tallet for Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson. Corey Patterson was worthless, but what the Cardinals got was a legitimate starter (position of need), a legitimate RH reliever (position of need), and a legitimate LH reliever (position of insane need) for a CF who was arguably replaceable given his struggles and the major league depth at OF on the roster.

Let's look at the post-AS break numbers (2 weeks are included that were pre-trade but it's the best I could do) Pre-AS break #s in ().
Offense
-Hits: 6th (3)
-Runs: 9th (5)
-HRs: 15th (12)
-RBI: 10th (4)
-Avg: 5th (3)
-OPS: 5th (4)
Pitching
-ERA: 6th (19)
-Saves: 8th (10)
-Ks: 18th (23)
-BAA: 19th (23)
-OPSA: 12th (18)
-BLSVs: tied for 3rd most (4th most)
-WHIP: 11th (18)

I hate using counting stats to prove a point because they don't tell the whole story, but bear with me it's the best I could do.

Now, as you can see, the Cardinals offense actually got a little worse, however the pitching got better. Can you attribute this to just getting hot or TLR and Dave Duncan? Yea sure, I'll buy that argument. But couldn't you also attribute this to the trade for 3 players at positions that the Cardinals desperately needed and installing Motte as the full time closer? Absolutely.

Post-AS break the Cardinals went 41-29 (58.6%) but post trade they went 35-22 (61.4%). Yea call it getting hot or insane managing, but the team got better too. People seem to want to write that off. This team improved significantly in the pitching department after that trade and as players got healthy.

Project the 35-22 over a full season and you get 99 wins (I'm not saying that's going to happen. Not even close). Matheny is inheriting the team that went 35-22 over the final few months, not the team that was 55-50 up until that point. I'll break it down.
Starting Rotation
-2010: Carp, Garcia, Jackson, Lohse, Westbrook
-2011: Carp, Waino, Garcia, Lohse, Westbrook
It's very hard to argue that the rotation got any worse or even stayed the same compared to the stretch run of last year. Injuries and rust are a factor here, but this group at worst is still a little better.
Bullpen
-2010: Motte, Zep, Dotel, Salas, Lynn, Boggs, Rhodes
-2011: Motte, Zep, Salas, Sanchez, Boggs, Romero, McClellan
Let's call Rhodes vs Romero a wash. When healthy, McClellan is certainly better than Lynn. Sanchez is much better than Dotel. The bullpen will be better. And now that the closer is in place, there won't be any bullshit related to that.
Offense
-2010: Furcal, Jay, Pujols, Holliday, Berkman, Freese, Molina, Schumaker
-2011: Furcal, Beltran, Holliday, Berkman, Freese, Jay, Molina, Schumaker/Descalso
I could argue that, given Pujols's off year, more or less this offense is near the same level as last year. However, I'll concede that the offense figures to be worse. Much worse? No way, but worse. There is a small chance, with health, that this offense could actually be better than last years version, but I'm not betting on health with this team.

Since 2000, this team has only been under 83 wins one time. Of course that was after the WS, but there were some serious issues that offseason (during the season as well). They lost 3 of their 5 SPs and the 4th (the assclown Mulder) wasn't healthy enough to pitch for most of the year. That team had a ridiculous turnover in the post season. The 3 replacements were Kip Wells, Adam Wainwright in his first SP season, converted reliever Braden Looper and former stud prospect, whose only good moment in the bigs was in the WS, Anthony Reyes. That team's rotation was an absolute mess. The current rotation is pretty solid going into the season.

As for the coaching situation, I agree that this will hurt the team barring miracle. But hurt them to the point of finishing under .500, no way. I also disagree with the "complete culture" change 100%. Couldn't disagree more. A complete culture change would have been hiring Francona or another outsider. Matheny was a Cardinal for 5 years. He helped instruct at spring training for the last couple. He might change things, sure, but he knows that the system TLR and DD had in place worked, and there's little reason to think that he won't continue that. The guy never had the personality that screamed "we are doing it my own way, screw the old way." He already has the respect of the players. I don't get the "complete culture" change thing at all. Does that mean every new coaching hire is a complete culture change? Because this is about as close to same culture as one can get without directly promoting a current assistant.

On Duncan, the new PC Lilliquist has been with the Cardinals since 2002. Duncan had control over what the minor league pitchers did. His system ran from the bigs all the way down. Lilliquist knows the system and knows it works. When he took over for Duncan at the end of last year (coincidentally right around the crazy run time), he ran the same system that DD did. Now some of that might have been TLRs doing, but it could also be that Lilliquist knows DDs system works. It's my opinion that Lilliquist will be running the same system DD always did.

I think that wraps up my novel. The end. Feel free to refute/concur.

---

I'm guessing I won't sway people, and I'm not trying to convince people that Over is the way to go, but I just don't get why people are so quick on the under.

[Skating Tripods]

I think you hit on the major concerns. I don't feel strongly one way or another at 87 or 83. I could see them falling in between those two numbers. The NL Central still isn't very good. I'm not sure how I feel about Milwaukee either. No Fielder and no Braun for the first 50. Do like their rotation a lot, middle relief is a question.

Cincinnati's solid. The Cubs, Pirates, and Astros are all doormats. Not high on the Pirates, especially the pitching. Very average lineup. Reasonably, I could see STL going 42-44 wins in the Central. That'd mean they'd have go above .500 against everyone else to get to 87 (or around .500 to get to 83). Not sure that's going to happen. They're not going 22-13 against the NL East again this year.

[JSpauny]

(02-20-2012 03:25 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  I think you hit on the major concerns. I don't feel strongly one way or another at 87 or 83. I could see them falling in between those two numbers. The NL Central still isn't very good. I'm not sure how I feel about Milwaukee either. No Fielder and no Braun for the first 50. Do like their rotation a lot, middle relief is a question.

Cincinnati's solid. The Cubs, Pirates, and Astros are all doormats. Not high on the Pirates, especially the pitching. Very average lineup. Reasonably, I could see STL going 42-44 wins in the Central. That'd mean they'd have go above .500 against everyone else to get to 87 (or around .500 to get to 83). Not sure that's going to happen. They're not going 22-13 against the NL East again this year.

I think in the middle is the best bet. I'd put 80 at the absolute floor and 92 as the absolute ceiling, factoring in injuries and what not.

I still think Milwaukee's going to be better than they're getting credit for right now. I'm not as big of a fan of Cincy, but 85-87 wins is likely. I think it's a 3 team race atop the NLC. The bottom 3 might get pushed around a little.

They probably won't fare as well against the NLE but 9 games against CHW and KC certainly helps. The schedule isn't overly brutal or overly easy by any means. I do love the August/September run. Wash, NYM, Mil, SD, LAD, Hou, CHC, Hou, Wash, Cincy. A lot of ground could be made up in those series before the final once at home against Cincy.