MLB Season Win Totals Discussion

[ChiefZilla]

(02-20-2012 03:39 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  They probably won't fare as well against the NLE but 9 games against CHW and KC certainly helps.

[JSpauny]

(02-21-2012 09:32 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(02-20-2012 03:39 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  They probably won't fare as well against the NLE but 9 games against CHW and KC certainly helps.

Haha. Sorry man, like KCs lineup, but their rotation is god awful.

[BetATL]

Anyone have a surprise team they think could blow past their low projected win total this year?

Last year the D'Backs won 94 games with a projected win total of 72.

In 2010, the Padres won 90 games with a projected win total of 68.5.

In 2009, the Mariners won 85 games with a projected win total of 72.5.

In 2008, the Rays won 97 games with a projected win total of 75. The Marlins won 84 games with a projected win total of 69. The Twins won 88 games with a projected total of 75 wins.

In 2007, the Mariners won 88 games with a projected win total of 75. The Rockies won 90 games with a projected win total of 74.5 games.

Anyway, you get the picture. Each year, at least one team in the 75 or less projected wins range seems to come together and have a good season. Who's going to be that team this year? Here are the candidates:

Baltimore Orioles 69.5
Chicago Cubs 74.5
Chicago White Sox 74
Houston Astros 64
Minnesota Twins 73
New York Mets 70.5
Oakland A's 71
Pittsburgh Pirates 73
San Diego Padres 73.5
Seattle Mariners 72

Could this be the year that the Pirates finally break the "Curse of Sid Bream"?

[JSpauny]

I really like SD to win more than 73.5 (I bet it at 70.5 @ BOL thinking it was an absolute steal). The division figures to be better (SF should be better and Ari as well). But I think SD improved quite a bit in the offseason. Another year of Maybin developing plus the additions of Quentin, Alonso, Volquez, and Grandal (assuming he makes the bigs which is a tossup). I wouldn't like that rotation in another other park besides Petco, but that rotation is certainly good enough to win them some games at home. Volquez might have a great year throwing half his starts in a HR squashing park compared to GAB. The back 3 in the bullpen: Cashner, Gregerson, and Street isn't anything special but certainly a solid group at the back end of the bullpen. I could see SD reaching 80 wins.

I liked Pittsburgh over 71 (what I got it at on BOL), but not as big on 73. I think they're a tiny bit better than people think but they got pretty ridiculous years out of a bunch of guys on their pitching staff. I'm not sure what to think about the additions of Burnett and Bedard, that's huge risk huge reward level. Have to figure Alvarez bounces back (stats show extremely unlucky), but does that offense have the pop to beat the rotations of Cin, Mil and Stl? Tough question.

I am intrigued by Oakland as well. That division is so top heavy though. That initially scared me away, but I think Oakland could surprise some in the West and get to 80.

All of the other ones don't tickle my fancy at all. I think Mets might go over, but not by much.

[Skating Tripods]

Agree with JSpauny. I'm not sure that there will be a team that blows out and really overexceeds expectations.

Seattle could have been somewhat of a surprise team had they kept Pineda, but their rotation behind King Felix is laughably bad. They're building a pretty decent offense.

I guess, of that list, I'll have to take the Cubs. I think Maholm's a pretty underrated pitcher and a solid addition. Volstad's not bad, he's a good fit at the back of their rotation. I don't know if they'll hit enough, but I like DeJesus and think he's a strong fit for their lineup.

Plus, they got rid of that asshole Carlos Zambrano. I think the Cubs could be a surprise contender in the NLC. Only real question mark is their middle relief. It'll be young and inexperienced.

[ChiefZilla]

Am I crazy for liking the Minnesota Twins over 73?

Twins wins under Ron Gardenhire: 94, 90, 92, 83, 96, 79, 88, 87, 94, 63.

Last season they got ravaged by injuries (more DL stints than any other team, including Mauer, Morneau, Baker, etc.). They don't even really need that big of a bounce-back season to surpass 73 wins. Plus, the AL Central -- aside from Detroit -- doesn't really have anyone all that scary.

[JSpauny]

(02-21-2012 11:38 AM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Agree with JSpauny. I'm not sure that there will be a team that blows out and really overexceeds expectations.

Seattle could have been somewhat of a surprise team had they kept Pineda, but their rotation behind King Felix is laughably bad. They're building a pretty decent offense.

I guess, of that list, I'll have to take the Cubs. I think Maholm's a pretty underrated pitcher and a solid addition. Volstad's not bad, he's a good fit at the back of their rotation. I don't know if they'll hit enough, but I like DeJesus and think he's a strong fit for their lineup.

Plus, they got rid of that asshole Carlos Zambrano. I think the Cubs could be a surprise contender in the NLC. Only real question mark is their middle relief. It'll be young and inexperienced.

I was on Seattle the last two years. They've fooled me enough. But you know your rotation is bad, when you're counting on a guy you drafted less than a year ago (Danny Hultzen) to contribute a decent amount of innings during the season. They do have some intrigue though.

I was hung up on the Cubs. My model said over, my brain says number is good. I do agree on DeJesus. Solid addition. Also love LaHair to have a good year. His minors numbers were great. There's some serious power in that bat. But Ian Stewarts a big question mark. Figures to improve some, but who really knows. Barney is about as worthless as it gets behind the plate.

Rotation is decent though. I'm not a Malholm fan, but he could have a decent year (due for a regression though. BABIP 25 points below career and xFIP almost 40 points higher than ERA. Figure he settles in the 4.0-4.4 range this year).

My big question is Garza. Why wouldn't the Cubs bottom out now and ship him for a great haul. This team is going to have a hard time competing in the NLC for the next couple of years. If they trade Garza, this is suddenly a 75 win team max, imo. That's what worries me.

---

(02-21-2012 11:45 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Am I crazy for liking the Minnesota Twins over 73?

Twins wins under Ron Gardenhire: 94, 90, 92, 83, 96, 79, 88, 87, 94, 63.

Last season they got ravaged by injuries (more DL stints than any other team, including Mauer, Morneau, Baker, etc.). They don't even really need that big of a bounce-back season to surpass 73 wins. Plus, the AL Central -- aside from Detroit -- doesn't really have anyone all that scary.

You got to figure they won't suffer the same injury luck this year, but the more I dive into the numbers, the more I think this team is in the 70s and not the 80s. I could see 73 wins, don't get me wrong, but I'm not sure I could see much more.

They are really weak at a number of positions on offense: 2B, 3B and SS. Plus who knows if Morneau is healthy, big bat Morneau, or Morneau post concussion. They have some big question marks on O.

The rotation also scares me. Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn and Marquis isn't all that great.

I wouldn't call you crazy for liking over 73. I don't think it's terrible, but I also don't think 80 is even a possibility sans miracle.

[ChiefZilla]

As much as I hate to pin a baseball team's hopes on one player, a healthy Morneau vs. post-concussion Morneau could make all the difference for MIN this season. With him healthy, the Mauer-Morneau combo in the middle of the lineup is one of the best in baseball. But without Morneau hitting, that lineup becomes very, very feeble.

[JSpauny]

(02-21-2012 11:59 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  As much as I hate to pin a baseball team's hopes on one player, a healthy Morneau vs. post-concussion Morneau could make all the difference for MIN this season. With him healthy, the Mauer-Morneau combo in the middle of the lineup is one of the best in baseball. But without Morneau hitting, that lineup becomes very, very feeble.

Agreed. Without Morneau in that lineup, pitchers can afford to pitch around Mauer as much as they want to as well. Plus, Mauer isn't a big power bat. Without Morneau their leading HR guy might only get 23-28 HRs. There isn't a lot of power in that lineup without Morneau. Not that power is everything, but if your best power hitter is Josh Willingham, your team has serious issues.

[BetATL]

Here are some brief thoughts on those teams:

Baltimore Orioles 69.5 - Toughest division in baseball. Not much improvement on the roster from years past. Should be another rough season for Buck and the O's.

Chicago Cubs 74.5 - Interesting team here and who really knows what we'll get from the Cubbies. A lot of new faces on this club and a lot of the former staples are gone. Not a lot of big time names anymore on the roster but I think that may be a good thing for them. Could see this team winning 85 if they gel.

Chicago White Sox 74 - Ozzie is gone (which may be a good thing) and the roster is solid. They benefit from being in the AL Central, which on paper, isn't a very good division this year according to oddsmakers.. outside of the Tigers of course. I could see them being a surprise team if they get enough pitching and some players that struggled last year like Dunn, Rios and Beckham have rebound years.

Houston Astros 64 - Don't expect much here. Just don't have the players to consistently compete right now.

Minnesota Twins 73 - Have the team on paper to compete, question is can they stay healthy? Like the White Sox, they benefit from being in the AL Central, which should be wide open this season if Detroit falters.

New York Mets 70.5 - NL East should be a very good division this year and the Mets just don't have the players. So many things would have to go "wright" for them to compete this year. Mets may continue to unload some of the roster midway through the season.

Oakland A's 71 - A's have won before with not much of a roster on paper. Don't think they can do it this year. Coco Crisp is projected to hit 3rd with Seth Smith hitting behind him in the cleanup spot. That won't get it done. The A's seem to always find some pitching during the season but just don't see their offense scoring enough runs for them to win 80+ games.

Pittsburgh Pirates 73 - The Curse of Sid Bream lives. Pirates have had 19 straight losing seasons since Sid Slid in '92. Last year, the Pirates looked like they might stop that streak but faded in the 2nd half. Bucs have a lot of questions on offense behind McCutchen and will need some average guys to have above average years. Starting staff is high risk high reward with vets like Burnett and Bedard. I like the Pit bullpen though and because of that could see them making a run. In the end I think the streak reaches 20.

San Diego Padres 73.5 - Padres far exceeded expectations in 2010 and then bombed completely last year. What Padres team will show up in 2012? Padres are another team with a lot of new faces. If they can gel as a team I could see them making some noise out West. The Dads always seem to be a sneaky team and usually play well at PetCo. Keep an eye on them early. If they compete early I think they'll hang around for the season in the division. If they falter early, it could get ugly.

Seattle Mariners 72 - Mariners don't have the pitching behind Hernandez, at least on paper. Offense should be better than last year but is still not great and probably a year or two away from where they want to be. AL West should be a tough division as well.


So when all is said and done I think my best bets would be the White Sox and the Twins with a lean to the Twins as my favorite bet. I think the AL Central will be up for grabs this year... and yes that includes the Detroit Tigers. Twins have the team on paper and the stars to win the division if they can stay healthy.

[JSpauny]

I have to disagree with the comment that the Twins look good on paper. I would argue that they look poor on paper. I'm not trying to pick on you or the Twins, but I don't get the love.

I don't think any of the 5 starting pitchers would be in the Top 3 of any other rotation in the ALC besides the horrible Royals rotation. Liriano has proven that he can't be consistent from year to year. Pavano might be one of the worst "aces" in the bigs. Jason Marquis might be an acceptable 5 but by no means is he good. Scott Baker is probably their best pitcher and his numbers show he's due for some regression. Not one of their projected starting 5 has a career ERA under 4. Here were their WAR values last year (just a gauge not meant to say they will repeat these numbers). Pavano:2.9, Liriano: 0.7, Baker: 2.7, Blackburn: 0.7 and Marquis: 1.4. This rotation was, for the most part, barely above replacement level last season.

Obviously, injuries had a lot to do with their offensive woes last season. So they could certainly improve in that department, but this team had a .666 OPS as a team last year. They lose Kubel, Cuddyer and Delmon Young (3 capable players) and pick up Jamey Carroll, Josh Willingham, and Ryan Doumit. I would argue that they lost much more than they gained on the offensive end. Now full seasons of Span, Mauer, and Morneau certainly help, but I just don't think their offense is very good. Total lack of pop. How is this team going to score runs, especially if Morneau isn't 100%.

Matt Capps isn't a great closer. Good but nothing special. Perkins had a great year last year, but that was his only good year in the bigs so far. Some regression is likely. I like the Zumaya signing, but he hasn't thrown more than 40 innings since 2006. Can't really rely on him.

I think this team has names, so yes I guess they might look good on paper. But those names aren't exactly top performers. If you break it down this offense figures to struggle again and their rotation isn't even close to good enough to keep them in games.

Like I said, I don't get the love. The division is overall weak, I will agree with that, but even the bottom dwellers in weak divisions don't suddenly touch 80 wins.

[EDIT] Don't want to get ripped apart by a Twins fan for this so when I say bottom dweller that is only counting last year and what I predict will happen this year. Nothing to do with 3+ years ago.

[Skating Tripods]

I can't believe anyone would say that the White Sox roster looks good on paper. It's Konerko and then a bunch of underachieving players. Sure, one or two of them may bounce back, but that's a team that strikes out entirely too much, lost its long time Opening Day starter, and it's best reliever is now the de facto closer. Gaping holes everywhere.

They lost their table setter in Pierre, Adam Dunn is at best a platoon player now, Quentin's gone...

Teams that strikeout a ton need power threats. The White Sox will be lucky to have someone other than Konerko hit 25 HR. Hell, maybe even 20 HR.

I like Floyd and Danks, and some of their young arms like Sale are ok, but this is not a good baseball team.

[BetATL]

Now let's go the other way. Here are some teams from recent years that have fallen well short of their projected win totals. By the way, this thread will be brought up in late September for bragging rights so choose wisely.

In 2011, the Twins won 63 games against a 86.5 projected win total. The Rockies won 73 games against a 85 projected win total.

in 2010, the Indians won 69 games against a projected win total of 83.5. The D'backs won 65 games against an 85.5 projected win total.

In 2009, the Indians again fell well short winning just 65 games against a 85.5 projected win total. The Mets won 70 games against an 88.5 projected win total. Arizona won 70 games against an 86.5 projected win total.

Anyway, again, you get the picture. Every year there are going to be some teams that are projected to win an amount of games in the mid 80's or more that fall well short of that total. Who will that team(s) be this year?

Contestants:

D'backs-86
Braves-87
Red Sox-89.5
Reds-86.5
Tigers-92.5
Marlins-84.5
Angels-92.5
Brewers-84
Yankees-93.5
Phillies-93.5
Giants-87.5
Cardinals-83
Rays-87
Rangers-91.5
Nationals-84.5

Thoughts?

[JSpauny]

Wow, that's very difficult. I'm not sure I can pick one to go into the tank this year.

I would have said the Cards at 87 as long as they suffer some severe injuries but even with injuries they could win 82.

I could possibly see the Dbacks only winning low 80s if their rotation doesn't perform as well as last year.

I could see the Phillies only winning high 80s low 90s with an improved NLE.

I suppose I could see Wash collapsing just because they've never really been in this kind of situation, but damn their team should at least be able to get to .500 with health.

I guess if I had to pick 1 team to just collapse it'd probably be the Red Sox. Who knows how they'll respond after the crazy collapse after last year. They are counting on Bard and Cook/Aceves (as of now) in their rotation. Becketts getting up there in years. You hope for a full season of Bucholz but I have some doubts. If Lester goes down, their rotation is in rough shape. But their lineup is still pretty dominant so I can't see them winning less than 82.

I'd feel comfortable placing unders bets on some of these teams, but anything drastically under, no way would I feel comfortable.

[Skating Tripods]

I guess I'll go with the Braves. They lack depth at pretty much every position and their middle relief is a major question mark. Kimbrel and Venters won't be as dominant as they were last season and could face some after-effects from their very heavy workload in 2011.

I like the addition of Michael Bourn from last year's trade, and I think they'll have a pretty decent lineup, but the NLE is much improved, as we have talked about.

Tim Hudson slightly overachieved with a 3.22 ERA despite a 3.39 FIP on a team where some of the pitchers suffered from a below average group of fielders. Jair Jurrens is a HUGE candidate for regression Had a 2.96 ERA, but showed a 3.99 FIP and a 4.23 xFIP. Hanson's solid, but Beachy and Minor are still pretty unproven.

As I said, they need a lot of length from their starters because the middle relievers are question. O'Flaherty's also due for some serious regression. I don't doubt the talent of the young kids in those roles, but they are inexperienced and should be prone to mistakes.

Chipper's getting older. Uggla's a question mark from year-to-year. They could start a rookie in Tyler Pastornicky at SS. Highly touted kid, but he'll have a learning curve.

I think this is more of a prediction based on the overall strength of the NLE and the Braves only went 36-36 in last year's division.

---

First paragraph of Jonah Keri's Indians preview for Grantland:

Quote:Every year around this time, Las Vegas casinos start posting over/under win totals for MLB teams. The LVH released its lines on Monday. The number on the Indians? 78.5 wins. Bet the over. Bet it hard.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triang...nd-indians

[JSpauny]

I agree with you for the most part on the Braves, Tripods, but everything I've read seems to think that Vizcaino and Teheran figure to factor in relief at some point in the season. They have so many solid arms in AAA. I'm guessing they plug in their young SPs into relief roles if things look bad in the bullpen. I do agree with you though. I think the Braves are the third best team in the NLE. Pegged them between 83-87.

I do want to answer this in another way though. Since I agree with those win totals for the most part, here's the playoff teams I think won't make it back.
American League:
-I think the Rays have an uphill battle ahead of them to make the postseason. Yankees got better, they get a full year of stud Matt Moore. However, I think this is the year that ALE doesn't get 2 playoff teams. I can't imagine Texas not winning 90 games and I have a hard time thinking Los Angeles doesn't at least flirt with 90. Therefore, I tend to think Texas, NYY, LAA, and Det will end up being the playoff reps in the AL with TB, Bos, and a surprise Cle team just outside.
National League:
-DBacks. Yes, I do think the Dbacks got somewhat better, but I'm not a huge Cahill fan. His sinker style will help him in that ballpark but he's never going to be the sub 3 ERA that some people seem to think he's capable of (that year was an anomaly .236 BABIP and an xFIP a full run over ERA), especially not in that ballpark. Ian Kennedy got a little lucky last year also (2.88 ERA and 3.5 xFIP). This is more based on the Giants. They get Posey back and picked up Pagan (numbers show pretty unlucky last year) and Melky Cabrera. Obviously, Vogelsongs going to have a worse year, but give me that rotation in SF over the Dbacks rotation in Ari any day of the week. Kubel and a full year of Hill will help the Dbacks but I like the Giants offensive additions much, much more.
-Tie between the Brewers and Cardinals
I can almost guarantee that at least one of these teams don't make it back. The NLE figures to get 2 bids this year, even though the top 3 in the NLC are all pretty solid. Brewers lose Prince, Cards lose Pujols, and Reds get better. I think this division will be a dogfight at the top with only 1 team making the playoffs. Not sure who it will be, but there's a decent chance it's the Reds and both of these teams are left out.

[Skating Tripods]

Braun wins appeal. MIL o/u taken off board.

I'm curious to see what his numbers are like without Cecil, er, Prince in the lineup. Big boost to the Brew Crew, though. Still a good rotation.

[JSpauny]

So glad that one of my bigger bets was Mil over 81 on BOL. I killed that number. The new number should certainly be over 85. Might have to go for the middle.

[ChiefZilla]

In regards to our Twins/Morneau discussion from earlier, I think this tweet (from a Minneapolis Star-Trib columnist) is fairly relevant.

[JSpauny]

Wow. That's some pretty sad news. It's crazy that an MLB player might have to retire due to PCS.

I'm not sure what the Twins should do. Without Morneau they have no hope of competing. I almost feel like they should consider a firesale. Their minors is decent (middle ranked typically) but really lacks star power. They have Sano, Rosario, Benson, and Hicks (who hasn't improved much) but their best pitching prospect (Kyle Gibson) had major surgery last year. If they think they can improve this team by standing pat, promoting prospects, and signing free agents I think they're crazy. They have two extremely valuable trade chips (assuming both are healthy), in Mauer and Liriano. They could boost that farm system up to #1 if they wanted to trade them. Now I doubt they trade Mauer, but they aren't winning any WS in the near future barring a miracle.

Short term, I'm guessing Mauer sees some time at 1B if Morneau calls it quits soon. Doumit sees more innings behind the plate as well. Gotta figure Parmlee makes the club no matter what now. He's decent but last years numbers were very inflated (.390 BABIP, highest ISO at any level). He might be an ok fill in, but 1B is going to be a huge issue for the Twins if Morneau indeed retires.