MLB Season Thread

[TheBrick]

I figured I would start a thread for all things MLB, since we still have a month and a half of regular season play, and a month of playoff action to go.

There is a total tonight which is really sticking out to me. That would be the OVER in the Giants-Astros game. The total is at 7 pretty much across the board, though I do see some slight juice variation depending on the book. For instance, the Greek has the Over at -115, whereas Bodog and many others have it at -110.

This total opened at 7 with Vogelsong facing W.Rodriguez, but what really is surprising me is that I'm seeing a whopping 93% of tickets being on the Under. And sharp books like the Greek have increased on the juice on the Over, even with the action on the Under. This scenario screams out to make a play on the Over tonight, and that is what I'm going to do.

There are a few other factors making me like this play on the Over. Vogelsong has incredible season long numbers. He is 10-2 with a 2.47 ERA. On the road, his ERA climbs to 3.38 with a WHIP of 1.35, and after the All-Star break his ERA has been 3.22 with a WHIP of 1.40 in 6 starts. Wandy Rodriguez has been solid with a 3.50 ERA for the season, but in 3 career starts against SF (all at home), he has a 5.17 ERA with a WHIP of 1.98.

Those stats are well and good, but the KEY in this game for me is the bullpens. The Astros bullpen is horrible, ranking 29th in MLB with a 4.34 ERA. And while the Giants bullpen is #1 in MLB, they are missing their two best arms in B.Wilson and S.Romo. Even if this game is close and low scoring late, either one of these bullpens is likely to implode and make this game go over. Best of luck with any plays you make.

[SkyBlues42]

(08-19-2011 05:38 PM)TheBrick Wrote:  I figured I would start a thread for all things MLB, since we still have a month and a half of regular season play, and a month of playoff action to go.

There is a total tonight which is really sticking out to me. That would be the OVER in the Giants-Astros game. The total is at 7 pretty much across the board, though I do see some slight juice variation depending on the book. For instance, the Greek has the Over at -115, whereas Bodog and many others have it at -110.

This total opened at 7 with Vogelsong facing W.Rodriguez, but what really is surprising me is that I'm seeing a whopping 93% of tickets being on the Under. And sharp books like the Greek have increased on the juice on the Over, even with the action on the Under. This scenario screams out to make a play on the Over tonight, and that is what I'm going to do.

There are a few other factors making me like this play on the Over. Vogelsong has incredible season long numbers. He is 10-2 with a 2.47 ERA. On the road, his ERA climbs to 3.38 with a WHIP of 1.35, and after the All-Star break his ERA has been 3.22 with a WHIP of 1.40 in 6 starts. Wandy Rodriguez has been solid with a 3.50 ERA for the season, but in 3 career starts against SF (all at home), he has a 5.17 ERA with a WHIP of 1.98.

Those stats are well and good, but the KEY in this game for me is the bullpens. The Astros bullpen is horrible, ranking 29th in MLB with a 4.34 ERA. And while the Giants bullpen is #1 in MLB, they are missing their two best arms in B.Wilson and S.Romo. Even if this game is close and low scoring late, either one of these bullpens is likely to implode and make this game go over. Best of luck with any plays you make.

Good point. I also like betting the over when Wandy is on the mound. Always has the potential for a blow up, especially if he starts walking batters.

[wazzufan]

85% of the public is on the under in this one, so what the heck, i will take a chance with you. besides, im a total degenerate. you could sell me on anything.

[TheBrick]

Certainly not the game I expected. I knew it was an ominous sign when the Giants got thrown out at home to end the 2nd inning. Didn't know then, but that was as close as they came to scoring. Ouch, that one hurt. On to the next...

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-19-2011 10:08 PM)TheBrick Wrote:  Certainly not the game I expected. I knew it was an ominous sign when the Giants got thrown out at home to end the 2nd inning. Didn't know then, but that was as close as they came to scoring. Ouch, that one hurt. On to the next...

What's your approach to MLB? When I'm locked in, I'll usually play two per day at plus money and hope for 1-1 or 2-0. But now — well, since early July, really — I'm locked in on football. I don't see much value in betting baseball and would rather spend my time getting to know every college football team in the country.

Best time to hit the bases is in April betting dogs.

[TheBrick]

(08-19-2011 10:17 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-19-2011 10:08 PM)TheBrick Wrote:  Certainly not the game I expected. I knew it was an ominous sign when the Giants got thrown out at home to end the 2nd inning. Didn't know then, but that was as close as they came to scoring. Ouch, that one hurt. On to the next...

What's your approach to MLB? When I'm locked in, I'll usually play two per day at plus money and hope for 1-1 or 2-0. But now — well, since early July, really — I'm locked in on football. I don't see much value in betting baseball and would rather spend my time getting to know every college football team in the country.

Best time to hit the bases is in April betting dogs.

I completely agree about April baseball and betting dogs. As the season wears on, I look for spots where the full-season stats and standings, don't necessarily represent how those teams / players are performing in the short-term. In those spots, the line may provide value.

For example, tonight's play on that total, I saw value in it because while Vogelsong and W.Rodriguez's numbers are respectable, I didn't believe they warranted a 7. Not with those bullpens, and playing in that ballpark. The line was 7 heavily based on Vogelsong's season long numbers. I see him regressing a bit late in the season, and I can't believe Wandy threw 8 shutout. How can a veteran like that still have his head in the game playing for such a horrible team. I never thought he would be focused enough to throw such a gem.

These are the things I consider when pulling the trigger, what can I say, it didn't work tonight, but to say that there is no value in baseball all together is not a leap I'm willing to make.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-19-2011 11:41 PM)TheBrick Wrote:  I completely agree about April baseball and betting dogs. As the season wears on, I look for spots where the full-season stats and standings, don't necessarily represent how those teams / players are performing in the short-term. In those spots, the line may provide value.

For example, tonight's play on that total, I saw value in it because while Vogelsong and W.Rodriguez's numbers are respectable, I didn't believe they warranted a 7. Not with those bullpens, and playing in that ballpark. The line was 7 heavily based on Vogelsong's season long numbers. I see him regressing a bit late in the season, and I can't believe Wandy threw 8 shutout. How can a veteran like that still have his head in the game playing for such a horrible team. I never thought he would be focused enough to throw such a gem.

These are the things I consider when pulling the trigger, what can I say, it didn't work tonight, but to say that there is no value in baseball all together is not a leap I'm willing to make.

I didn't say 'no value' but rather 'not much' value. Lines are far more efficient now and it's increasingly more difficult to get the price I'm looking for, particularly on dogs.

Baseball is much more profitable for me when I can get the 'better' team at plus money in April and May before the market adjusts.

[RyanParrill]

Just as a heads up, Miguel Cabrera will not be playing tomorrow.

This could mean that he started the vacation a little early and he'll be drunk for today's game. Having a day off, that could also mean he'll still be drunk for Friday's game.

Stay tuned.

[Screech99]

(08-24-2011 03:12 PM)RyanParrill Wrote:  Just as a heads up, Miguel Cabrera will not be playing tomorrow.

This could mean that he started the vacation a little early and he'll be drunk for today's game. Having a day off, that could also mean he'll still be drunk for Friday's game.

Stay tuned.

And if he's drunk for Friday's game, you know he'll want to cap the week off by hopping on the ol' whiskey train and then a drunken cruise around town on Friday night/Saturday morning..

[SkyBlues42]

probably just a premature division title celebration

[Beyond the Bets]

94% of the public backing the Yanks tonight against the A's.

[Screech99]

Found this interesting ... since you wrote that post about the A's 23-2-4 'over' run since the All-Star Break, the last few Oakland totals have been:

8/16 -- over
8/17 -- over
8/18 -- push
8/19 -- under
8/20 -- under
8/21 -- under
8/23 -- over
8/24 -- over
Today -- over

So not quite as crazy it was, but still 5-3-1 for a total 28-5-5 since the AS Break.

[DaWhaleDontHesitate]

9/2/2011

Bodog has Pirates @ Cubs o/u at 12.5 !!!

Thoughts....anyone??

[SkyBlues42]

My thought, would be to play the over

Looks like a 'trap' bet..then again, you never know what your gonna get with Ryan Dempster on the mound

He could be good, or he could be absolutely terrible

[DaWhaleDontHesitate]

Yeah I agree on the trap bet theory! I took Over and Pitt +155.

[itg_sports]

I have only seen the line this high one other time this year that I remember. I think it was with the Rockies. The total hit 10 I think. I would compare this to seeing an Under @ 4.5. The best play is no play but I would take the under.

[MMGambler]

Plenty of MLB afternoon action today, any strong leans out there? I am liking the Red Sox on the runline and San Francisco Giants on the moneyline as my 2 top plays. I also have the Brewers as a dog and the Cubs, although that line kind of sucks. What do you guys think?

If you are so inclined I also like the Hamilton Tiger Cats (+3) at home in the CFL. I'm not huge on the CFL but the Cats should probably be a small favourite in this game.

[Beyond the Bets]

I bet KC

[itg_sports]

(9/6/11)

I am looking at the Brewers and Tigers to win. Any opinions?

Also, how does Strasburg do in his first outing. I am thinking strongly about the over on that one (7.5)

[Beyond the Bets]

Over/under on Stephen Strasburg strikeouts: 4.5.