MLB Capping

[marko123]

There is so much information out there in regards to mlb data, trends, batter vs pitcher, situationals and so on, but how do you guys go about capping each game?

How do you pick the games you want to bet on? Obviously no one bets every single game. So how do you find value?

Do you guys just use a generic way of capping each game the same way or does it change game to game?

All comments are appreciated, first year of mlb betting and its frustrating to say the least.

[RyanParrill]

I'll try to add a little to this, but if you haven't read it, this thread with the article linked in the first post may help.

http://www.beyondthebets.com/forum/showt...p?tid=2902

[OracleComputer]

This will go over like I came in and took a dump on your birthday cake but my advice is simple...

Unless you have an advanced statistics degree in combination with significant programming intelligence I suggest you find a different sport.

Sabermetric stat knowledge is a prereq. but doesn't mean you actually know what you're doing.

The smartest math minds inherently migrate to baseball when betting sports. Do you want to compete with that?

[ChiefZilla]

(07-15-2012 09:16 PM)OracleComputer Wrote:  The smartest math minds inherently migrate to baseball when betting sports. Do you want to compete with that?

No. And I don't. I lose interest in betting baseball after April. Mainly because I mostly just tread water and it feels completely pointless.

[JSpauny]

(07-15-2012 09:16 PM)OracleComputer Wrote:  This will go over like I came in and took a dump on your birthday cake but my advice is simple...

Unless you have an advanced statistics degree in combination with significant programming intelligence I suggest you find a different sport.

Sabermetric stat knowledge is a prereq. but doesn't mean you actually know what you're doing.

The smartest math minds inherently migrate to baseball when betting sports. Do you want to compete with that?

Hard not to agree. I had a model that combined sabermetrics and math that did extremely well for about a month. Then handicappers adjusted accordingly and since then its been a total crapshoot. No matter how much adjusting I've done, i haven't been able to replicate the first month. It gott to the point where i quit betting just because there was never any consistent winning after May.

[SkyBlues42]

That's where I think futures can help make the MLB season more interesting. Betting on some division winners, pennant and WS futures can help to keep someone "invested" in the season, without forcing them to make plays after the dog days are essentially over.

That, and something like the stock market approach.

[BetATL]

While I agree that it gives you an added edge, I don't think being an expert in mathematics is necessary to profit from MLB.