Miami/South Florida

[jimmysingh9]

Can someone please help me with this line? When going by matchups, I really like the Hurricanes to move the ball quite easily against USF. This is the first team in a while that USF has played that can run and throw efficiently. Still havent been impressed with the USF offense, so I think Miami can slow them down.

The game started as Miami the favourite and has now moved to USF. Is there anything major with injuries that I am missing? Or other angles that I should be aware of?

[RyanParrill]

Jokes on me today jimmy, I opened this thread thinking it was a beach invite.

[Weebay]

fwiw I played Miami. USF off a win at syracuse, Miami off a loss, I feel this is a good spot for the Canes.

[jimmysingh9]

I keep trying to find angles to like USF but I dont. The only two offenses that are half decent that USF played against were Cincy and Pitt and they went for almost 500 yards on them.

USF offense has been playing better. They dont have leading reciever Sterling Griffin, its a blow and the Miami defense is alot quick than the big east defenses they have faced.

[lindetrain]

I think there are a couple arguments to be made for USF. For one, the U is off a loss in what they proclaimed was their Super Bowl last week, and now has this non-conference game sandwiched between FSU and Senior Day against BC. Their strong road play this year (3-1 ATS, really should be 4-0 if it weren't for ridiculous MD front door cover in Wk 1) isn't really indicative of how average they are, so USF backers could argue there will be an eventual regression there for the Canes. Also, you're getting a team with comparable talent and coaching, who knows and believes they can beat the U (did it last year), at home around a PK. The Bulls finally broke their skid last week, so one might anticipate they got over the hump with that win and continue to gain momentum here.

However, all that being said, I played Miami +1. Not sure if you all think this is a worthy angle or holds any value, but look at the three games leading up to their lone road win this year at UNC - they are virtually identical to the three games leading up to this one. Outright home loss as heavy faves (K-State, UVA), followed by home cover as heavy faves (Bethune-Cookman, Duke), followed by loss but cover as moderate sized road dogs (Va Tech, FSU), followed by outright win as slight road dog (UNC, and now USF).

Also, it must be kept in mind that USF and the U are both unique in the fact they are consistently better road teams than home teams - perhaps something to do with playing in NFL stadiums and off campus. The road team won this game last year as a big dog, giving the Canes a slight revenge angle going in; I also don't trust USF to build on last week's win over Cuse coming back home, as they appear to be painfully inconsistent this year. Despite my arguments for USF above, I like the U here.

[jimmysingh9]

thanks for the points LindeTrain. I played The U already. l made the play before listening to the millman podcast and teddy liked the canes as well even thought there is sharp money on USF, but he pointed out exactly what i said earlier this week. Sharps lose 45-48% of the time. So I dont worry about that anymore.

[oddsok]

I played the 'if they're not getting a key number, buy it up to just below one' angle that I think was mentioned in the thing you want to know thread.

When it was around a pk, I sold Miami up to -2.5 for +EV. Worked out well in a tight game and I will be keeping an eye on this theory for the rest of this, and next season.

[jimmysingh9]

yeah I have been doing that a bit.

I actually got burned today on some parlays I did. smaller money but 6-7 teamers and i got utah -3.5 and didnt buy the hook. only one wrong.


The Miami bet won but not the way I thought that was going to be. didnt think USF could amount that much pressure on Miami. That Lattimore kid was wrecking havoc on Harris and Miller.

[oddsok]

So many sacks.

[RyanB]

(11-20-2011 12:31 AM)oddsok Wrote:  So many sacks.

...and punts. Fell asleep watching it.