Miami/South Florida

[lindetrain]

I think there are a couple arguments to be made for USF. For one, the U is off a loss in what they proclaimed was their Super Bowl last week, and now has this non-conference game sandwiched between FSU and Senior Day against BC. Their strong road play this year (3-1 ATS, really should be 4-0 if it weren't for ridiculous MD front door cover in Wk 1) isn't really indicative of how average they are, so USF backers could argue there will be an eventual regression there for the Canes. Also, you're getting a team with comparable talent and coaching, who knows and believes they can beat the U (did it last year), at home around a PK. The Bulls finally broke their skid last week, so one might anticipate they got over the hump with that win and continue to gain momentum here.

However, all that being said, I played Miami +1. Not sure if you all think this is a worthy angle or holds any value, but look at the three games leading up to their lone road win this year at UNC - they are virtually identical to the three games leading up to this one. Outright home loss as heavy faves (K-State, UVA), followed by home cover as heavy faves (Bethune-Cookman, Duke), followed by loss but cover as moderate sized road dogs (Va Tech, FSU), followed by outright win as slight road dog (UNC, and now USF).

Also, it must be kept in mind that USF and the U are both unique in the fact they are consistently better road teams than home teams - perhaps something to do with playing in NFL stadiums and off campus. The road team won this game last year as a big dog, giving the Canes a slight revenge angle going in; I also don't trust USF to build on last week's win over Cuse coming back home, as they appear to be painfully inconsistent this year. Despite my arguments for USF above, I like the U here.