Long Beach St over New Mexcio

[Kballa41]

I haven’t seen much steam behind this even though it fits the staple 5-12 theory. I was very impressed watching LB state early on in the season vs teams like Kansas, UNC, Lou. But I kind of lost track of them as conference play started seeing as they are a Big West school. The dominated their conf as they should have. Plus New Mexico has never really impressed me when watching them play. They get stagnant at times and Kendell Williams doesn’t impress me at PG. Granted Drew Gordon is a beast and LB states bigs will have some issues with him. But I could def see an upset here. Took them + 4.5 when it opened. Might add a ML play too.

[louiemdj]

I was actually considering taking New Mexico in this one. Maybe I am bias because I have a man crush on former Missouri St coach Steve Alford, but I don't think putting stock in what a team does early on in the year is a good practice.

The thing I look at is what teams do down the stretch and if they have gotten better throughout the season. A lot of these bigger schools don't really get up for a lot of these early season games and the smaller schools play them like they are trying win a national championship so things get skewed.

[Kballa41]

I agree with that logic, BUT LB St went 15-1 in conf. So they continued there solid play throughout the season.

[louiemdj]

(03-14-2012 11:08 AM)Kballa41 Wrote:  I agree with that logic, BUT LB St went 15-1 in conf. So they continued there solid play throughout the season.

You may be right, and good luck with your bet. I'm going to be staying away from it. Just wanted to offer a opinion going against your pick.

[SkyBlues42]

New Mexico to the Elite Eight?

[illadelphia]

(03-14-2012 10:35 AM)Kballa41 Wrote:  I haven’t seen much steam behind this even though it fits the staple 5-12 theory. I was very impressed watching LB state early on in the season vs teams like Kansas, UNC, Lou. But I kind of lost track of them as conference play started seeing as they are a Big West school. The dominated their conf as they should have. Plus New Mexico has never really impressed me when watching them play. They get stagnant at times and Kendell Williams doesn’t impress me at PG. Granted Drew Gordon is a beast and LB states bigs will have some issues with him. But I could def see an upset here. Took them + 4.5 when it opened. Might add a ML play too.

This is one of the top upsets on my radar. I have seen a far amount of Long Beach games living out here. Not a bad squad overall. Here are some of my notes on them about what I like and don't like. I have to look at New Mexico some more before making this an official upset, but it has potential


Reasons I like CSULB:

exceptional senior leadership - Senior Caspar Ware played well this year against good competition (28 points at Pitt, 26 vs San Diego St and 29 points against UNC) and has the ability to "take over" a game.

Quality schedule - They played the nation’s toughest nonconference schedule this season. Lost to UNC this year by 6. Also played Pitt (W), Kansas (L), Louisville (L), Xavier (W), SD St (L) and Creighton (L). This 1st round game and accompanying hoopla won't be new ground for this team.

Speed - Long Beach turns rebounds and turnovers into points quickly. They can score fast and in bunches, so playing from behind isn't a huge concern.

Coach - Dan Monson has tournament experience and coached Gonzaga to the Elite Eight in 1999.


Reasons not to like CSULB:

Injury - They are hoping Larry Anderson will be ready to play tomorrow. The Big West Defensive POY missed the conference tournament after spraining his MCL on March 3. Anderson said the chances of him playing Thursday were "80 percent," but "100 percent" for Saturday. He also leads the team in steals and averages five rebounds.

Defense - Without Anderson, CSULB struggled with match ups in their tournament. Coach Monson was asked point-blank if he believes his team can be successful in this tournament without him.

"I think we can, but our margin for error is less," Monson said. "We're limited to what we can do and especially defensively. You could see that in the (UC) Santa Barbara game (in the conference tournament title game). We really missed him on Orlando (Johnson). "(He's) another athlete out there, rebounding and spreading the court and getting out on the break and all those things. I think we can, but the more we have Larry, the better chance we're going to have."

[TheHandicaper]

(03-14-2012 11:20 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  New Mexico to the Elite Eight?

Yes. Double rainbow across the sky.
Louisville in 32, Mich St in 16.

[SkyBlues42]

(03-14-2012 01:47 PM)TheHandicaper Wrote:  

(03-14-2012 11:20 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  New Mexico to the Elite Eight?

Yes. Double rainbow across the sky.
Louisville in 32, Mich St in 16.

[TheHandicaper]

[jimmysingh9]

For what its worth. I am on New Mexico. I have been really impressed with them. They are actually the only MWC team I like in this tourney. UNLV, SDSt, Colorado St won the majority of their big games at home. UNM has won outside of their building and that win over UNLV at Thomas Mack is a big win on the road in the championship.

Their bigs should be alot for Long Beach St. I dont know without Anderson if they can slow down UNM where I think UNM will slow down Long Beach St a little.

[Kballa41]

(03-14-2012 02:11 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  For what its worth. I am on New Mexico. I have been really impressed with them. They are actually the only MWC team I like in this tourney. UNLV, SDSt, Colorado St won the majority of their big games at home. UNM has won outside of their building and that win over UNLV at Thomas Mack is a big win on the road in the championship.

Their bigs should be alot for Long Beach St. I dont know without Anderson if they can slow down UNM where I think UNM will slow down Long Beach St a little.

Anderson is at 80% and should play. At least that's the last I heard. If he doesn't play it might be tough to stop Gordon.

[SkyBlues42]

I had every intention of taking Long Beach State in the first round, this was decided before the bracket was announced.. but when I saw that they were matched up with New Mexico, I quickly changed my mind. It's a tough opening game for the 49ers, especially with the questions surrounding Anderson. Even if he plays, I don't think it will make enough of a difference.

[iKnowNothing]

The team that wins will be in the Sweet 16.

I like Long Beach but barely. I'm hoping Long Beach gets New Mexico out of their offensive rhythm because if they don't, then it could be trouble with Drew Gordon. The key to me is New Mexico and defending the 3. If you've watched Beach, then you know that they're not afraid to let it fly. Casper Ware will shoot from anywhere on the court and I expect him to have a huge game (30 points) and if Beach hits some early 3s, then New Mexico doesn't have the shooting prowess to get back in the game.