Learning to Wager on Sports

[@oconnellp]

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  *I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.



Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

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I dont think parlays are "sucker bets" at all, especially in College Football. One of my more successful strategies over the years have been parlaying strong-fair SEC teams vs. out of conference opponents. I think the SEC is so strong that pegging them for straight up wins vs outside conference opponents holds significant value. The trick is to pick games where the favorite has a significant advantage in all aspects of the game and minimize the potential for an upset.
For example:
In week 2 of this year I took -
BAMA (-370) vs PennST (PennST totally outmatched in every aspect had no shot vs BAMA)
Kentucky (-370) vs Central Mich (Kentucky looked really bad against WestKentucky in week 1, but this is where SEC trust comes into play)
Tennessee (-200) vs Cincy (didnt buy into Cincy's chances at all with their defense)
FLA (-1625) vs UAB (A given)

Now, I am more confident in these 4 outcomes straight up than a LOT of ATS wagers I could make, and the payout is around 1-1.5
I bet 500.00 on this parlay and won $784.66 and this is one was actually a weak one in my opinion b/c having to rely on teams like Kentucky and Tenn because of a weak SEC schedule this particular week. I wouldnt get too crazy with betting amounts + parlays b/c just too many variables involved to risk significant cheddar, but just a 1 unit bet on a parlay such as this I believe has tremendous value.

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(09-22-2011 01:22 AM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  *I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.



Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

---

I dont think parlays are "sucker bets" at all, especially in College Football. One of my more successful strategies over the years have been parlaying strong-fair SEC teams vs. out of conference opponents. I think the SEC is so strong that pegging them for straight up wins vs outside conference opponents holds significant value. The trick is to pick games where the favorite has a significant advantage in all aspects of the game and minimize the potential for an upset.
For example:
In week 2 of this year I took -
BAMA (-370) vs PennST (PennST totally outmatched in every aspect had no shot vs BAMA)
Kentucky (-370) vs Central Mich (Kentucky looked really bad against WestKentucky in week 1, but this is where SEC trust comes into play)
Tennessee (-200) vs Cincy (didnt buy into Cincy's chances at all with their defense)
FLA (-1625) vs UAB (A given)

Now, I am more confident in these 4 outcomes straight up than a LOT of ATS wagers I could make, and the payout is around 1-1.5
I bet 500.00 on this parlay and won $784.66 and this is one was actually a weak one in my opinion b/c having to rely on teams like Kentucky and Tenn because of a weak SEC schedule this particular week. I wouldnt get too crazy with betting amounts + parlays b/c just too many variables involved to risk significant cheddar, but just a 1 unit bet on a parlay such as this I believe has tremendous value.

Also if you woulda thrown in some HIGHLY predictable winners into that parlay that week such as:
Georgia Tech (-420) vs. Mid Tenn
South Florida (-975) vs. Ball st
Stanford (-1125) vs. Duke
VA TECH (-735) vs. East Carolina
Oregon (-2900) vs. Nev
Wisconsin (-1075) vs. Oregon ST

you would have had yourself a 2:1 payout, not bad