Learning to Wager on Sports

[Skating Tripods]

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  As a bettor in the US (outside of Vegas), what are the options for books? Shopping for lines seems to be tough, since there are only certain books that will accept players from the US. Is there a list of US-friendly books anywhere?

Go to http://www.sportsbookreview.com. They have comprehensive reviews of every online sportsbook along with the ones that allow US players. Shopping around online is tough, especially with the crackdown on internet gaming by the US government, who should be worrying about just about everything else.

You really have to have the bankroll or be willing to make smaller bets so that you can have your bankroll spread out.

Use the SBR and find the book that's right for you.

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Quote:Someone mentioned "beating the line".

Do you only handicap the games the week before, and peg anything that comes out a certain distance away from your line, or do you wait to see the lines and see if anything triggers your senses as "off"?

To be honest, this is more of an advanced tactic and something you shouldn't worry about while trying to learn how to bet. You can take note of opening lines and see if you're right, but if you're just starting out, you are too far behind the curve to do this. At least, in my opinion.

Quote:Also, with FLA/UK this weekend, if you didn't know that UK was terrible, how would you predict that the line would move more than a TD toward FLA? Do you look at coaching, recruiting, scoring, defense, all of the above, etc?

Florida is a VERY public team. Dating back to the Spurrier days, they got heavy public money on them no matter who they played. Square bettors will go back to the same well over and over. So, what sharps do is get the best value on the line before the public can bet it. Like BTB said in his post, not all sharp bets are because they think the line is too low (though a good portion are), some are made because they know that the public would bet Florida to a -14 or 15 over the course of the week. So sharps do before the public does. That way, they get better value on the game. It also could give them a buy-back option (basically creating an opportunity for the game to fall within 11 and 18 and then win both bets if it ends 27-10).

All of it. The total package. The first thing I do is project how many points the dog will need to score to cover. Let's say you think Florida scores 30+. Reasonable, considering Kentucky isn't very good and Florida has an above average running game and good special teams. Do you think Kentucky can get into the 20s against Florida? If the answer is no, then covering 11 is hard. They don't even have to be exact numbers. Just, will Florida be in the 30s? Yes. Then Kentucky, at the opening line, would have to score at least 20.

Quote:Do you do the research in the offseason and have a list of teams that you think will be undervalued? If so, how would you come to those conclusions?

Yes, research in the offseason and update it throughout the year as necessary.

It's easier to determine teams that will be overvalued than undervalued, especially in the college game. Graduation and suspensions can really change a team because backups are either inexperienced or noticeably less talented at this stage in their development. Plus, there are lots of coaching changes every offseason. In the NFL, backups are still professionals and still a high level of competent.

Finding undervalued teams, I find is something happens on a weekly basis rather than for the year.

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Quote:Units vs non-units:

If you don't have some sort of unit limit, how do you decide how much of your bankroll you should risk on a given bet? Is there such thing as "too much"? Is there a set maximum, or should you be willing to wager as much as you think you have value?

That's mostly about you and how comfortable you feel. I've heard all kinds of figures and it depends on how much bankroll you have in reserve. I would never risk too much of my bankroll because if you are flat betting (betting single games ATS), it will take a while to get it back.

The reason so few people can do this professionally is because, in your best season, you're going to win 60%. You won't do is every year, but let's say you do hit 60% one year. For every 100 games you bet, at $20 each game, you will make roughly $380. For every $50 bet, you will make about $900. As you can see, you have to be betting a good-sized sum of money to really get significant winnings.

No matter how good a bet looks, it is not 100%. Anything can happen.

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Quote:Value vs predicted outcome:

I've read in places that you should take some bets that you aren't really confident in if it "has value". So, if you think the Braves have a 50/50 chance to beat the Phils on a given night, and the line is +200, should you bet that, since you suspect that every other time you take that bet you're going to win, and you're getting paid more than 1:1 on a win?

Sure. If you have a 50/50 shot on a +200, you only need to win it once every three times to break even. Those are good odds in your favor. If over the course of ten 50/50 games at +200, let's say you're betting $50 per game. If it comes exactly five wins, five losses, you would have won $500 and lost $250.

A case of value, for me, is a spread of less than three points in the NFL. A +2.5 or +1.5 or something. This isn't true of the college games because kids who go to school for free to kick aren't exactly worthy of their scholarship on some nights. But, in the NFL, games are almost always decided by key numbers unless something out of the ordinary happens (rare safeties, blocked PATs).

When a spread is less than 3, if you think that the team can cover, why not just take the moneyline? That way, you can win +120 or +115 instead of -110 in a scenario where they almost have to win to cover anyway.

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Quote:Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

When we on this site are talking about parlays as sucker bets, we're largely talking about taking -110 spreads as parlays. Moneyline parlays aren't bad bets if you are making them wisely. Let's say you see two CFB favorites that are -200 on the moneyline. For a $50 wager, you would win $25 on that straight bet. So, if both teams win, you will wager $100 to win $50. Since the likelihood is that they will both win, because they are heavy favorites, you can parlay them, wager just the $50 to win $62.50.

Nothing wrong with this play. It is a smart risk to take because the expected outcome is very favorable that both teams will win. Parlays add value to betting big favorites and also can be used as multipliers on a ticket. If you want to bet both -200 favorites and there's a -475 favorite who would need something incredibly awful to happen to lose, adding that -475 to your parlay brings the win total to $86.18. An extra $26 on the same bet just for adding a 12 or 13 point favorite.

As for teasers, they can be very sharp plays when done correctly. A buddy of my had a 3-team 10-point teaser last week. They are riskier plays because any push on a teaser loses, but they give a line incredible value when available. Last week, there were some big NFL spreads. With a three-team teaser, he was able to get Packers at a pick 'em (just means they have to win), Lions +1 (were a 9 point favorite, so now a virtual pick) and the Jets +1 against the Jags, again a virtual pick. So, rather than lay -10, -9, and -9, he had a situation where all three favorites just needed to win. And they did.

Used more frequently are the 6-point teasers. If you have a team that is favored at -3, they can become +3. An underdog who is +5 can become +11, and since something like 70% of NFL end between a 3 and 7 point difference, you have added value to the underdog. Usually, you use teasers to move off a key number. Though +5 isn't a key number, moving it to +11 gives you the cushion of a 10-point win for the favorite. And since the percentages say it's usually closer, you have more value.

If you do a teaser correctly, it does have less risk than a parlay and can put you in a really good spot to manipulate a spread.

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Quote:M/L vs R/L:

Should R/L bets be avoided all together, or do they hold value? Should you just bet more on the M/L if you're that confident that a team is going to win by one or more?

Run-line bets definitely have value. I only bet a run line if I'm getting plus money on my return. I wouldn't bother with a -1.5 (-120) because there's no value in it. But, if I'm getting a -1.5 (+140), there's value.

Really, with baseball, what you're betting depends on your bankroll. If you have the ability to lay $500 on a -200, you can make a quick $250. If you usually bet $20, is it worth the risk to win just $10? If you consistently win 2/3 of those plays, you still break even. Over the course of time, at bet sizes like that, you would basically have to win at least 80-90% of those plays to make a substantial amount.

If your bet is $20 on a +140, you'd win 40 cents for every dollar. So, you'd win $28 on each bet. But, they are riskier.


Like the last post, feel free to ask any questions. I hope I'm able to help.

[mount187]

(09-22-2011 01:22 AM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  *I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.



Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

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I dont think parlays are "sucker bets" at all, especially in College Football. One of my more successful strategies over the years have been parlaying strong-fair SEC teams vs. out of conference opponents. I think the SEC is so strong that pegging them for straight up wins vs outside conference opponents holds significant value. The trick is to pick games where the favorite has a significant advantage in all aspects of the game and minimize the potential for an upset.
For example:
In week 2 of this year I took -
BAMA (-370) vs PennST (PennST totally outmatched in every aspect had no shot vs BAMA)
Kentucky (-370) vs Central Mich (Kentucky looked really bad against WestKentucky in week 1, but this is where SEC trust comes into play)
Tennessee (-200) vs Cincy (didnt buy into Cincy's chances at all with their defense)
FLA (-1625) vs UAB (A given)

Now, I am more confident in these 4 outcomes straight up than a LOT of ATS wagers I could make, and the payout is around 1-1.5
I bet 500.00 on this parlay and won $784.66 and this is one was actually a weak one in my opinion b/c having to rely on teams like Kentucky and Tenn because of a weak SEC schedule this particular week. I wouldnt get too crazy with betting amounts + parlays b/c just too many variables involved to risk significant cheddar, but just a 1 unit bet on a parlay such as this I believe has tremendous value.

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(09-22-2011 01:22 AM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  *I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.



Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

---

I dont think parlays are "sucker bets" at all, especially in College Football. One of my more successful strategies over the years have been parlaying strong-fair SEC teams vs. out of conference opponents. I think the SEC is so strong that pegging them for straight up wins vs outside conference opponents holds significant value. The trick is to pick games where the favorite has a significant advantage in all aspects of the game and minimize the potential for an upset.
For example:
In week 2 of this year I took -
BAMA (-370) vs PennST (PennST totally outmatched in every aspect had no shot vs BAMA)
Kentucky (-370) vs Central Mich (Kentucky looked really bad against WestKentucky in week 1, but this is where SEC trust comes into play)
Tennessee (-200) vs Cincy (didnt buy into Cincy's chances at all with their defense)
FLA (-1625) vs UAB (A given)

Now, I am more confident in these 4 outcomes straight up than a LOT of ATS wagers I could make, and the payout is around 1-1.5
I bet 500.00 on this parlay and won $784.66 and this is one was actually a weak one in my opinion b/c having to rely on teams like Kentucky and Tenn because of a weak SEC schedule this particular week. I wouldnt get too crazy with betting amounts + parlays b/c just too many variables involved to risk significant cheddar, but just a 1 unit bet on a parlay such as this I believe has tremendous value.

Also if you woulda thrown in some HIGHLY predictable winners into that parlay that week such as:
Georgia Tech (-420) vs. Mid Tenn
South Florida (-975) vs. Ball st
Stanford (-1125) vs. Duke
VA TECH (-735) vs. East Carolina
Oregon (-2900) vs. Nev
Wisconsin (-1075) vs. Oregon ST

you would have had yourself a 2:1 payout, not bad

Is there any value in creating a round-robin with any of these picks? Is that too much risk for a group of games?

Edit: Not this particular group of games, but if you found 5-6 M/L plays that you really liked, is there value in a round-robin?

Thanks again for your responses. Very informative.

[Beyond the Bets]

Excellent response by Skating Tripod. Thanks for taking the time to help answer Mount's questions so thoroughly.

[Cirocco Jones]

(09-22-2011 10:18 AM)mount187 Wrote:  

(09-22-2011 01:22 AM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  *I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.


Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

---

I dont think parlays are "sucker bets" at all, especially in College Football. One of my more successful strategies over the years have been parlaying strong-fair SEC teams vs. out of conference opponents. I think the SEC is so strong that pegging them for straight up wins vs outside conference opponents holds significant value. The trick is to pick games where the favorite has a significant advantage in all aspects of the game and minimize the potential for an upset.
For example:
In week 2 of this year I took -
BAMA (-370) vs PennST (PennST totally outmatched in every aspect had no shot vs BAMA)
Kentucky (-370) vs Central Mich (Kentucky looked really bad against WestKentucky in week 1, but this is where SEC trust comes into play)
Tennessee (-200) vs Cincy (didnt buy into Cincy's chances at all with their defense)
FLA (-1625) vs UAB (A given)

Now, I am more confident in these 4 outcomes straight up than a LOT of ATS wagers I could make, and the payout is around 1-1.5
I bet 500.00 on this parlay and won $784.66 and this is one was actually a weak one in my opinion b/c having to rely on teams like Kentucky and Tenn because of a weak SEC schedule this particular week. I wouldnt get too crazy with betting amounts + parlays b/c just too many variables involved to risk significant cheddar, but just a 1 unit bet on a parlay such as this I believe has tremendous value.

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(09-22-2011 01:22 AM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  *I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.



Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

---

I dont think parlays are "sucker bets" at all, especially in College Football. One of my more successful strategies over the years have been parlaying strong-fair SEC teams vs. out of conference opponents. I think the SEC is so strong that pegging them for straight up wins vs outside conference opponents holds significant value. The trick is to pick games where the favorite has a significant advantage in all aspects of the game and minimize the potential for an upset.
For example:
In week 2 of this year I took -
BAMA (-370) vs PennST (PennST totally outmatched in every aspect had no shot vs BAMA)
Kentucky (-370) vs Central Mich (Kentucky looked really bad against WestKentucky in week 1, but this is where SEC trust comes into play)
Tennessee (-200) vs Cincy (didnt buy into Cincy's chances at all with their defense)
FLA (-1625) vs UAB (A given)

Now, I am more confident in these 4 outcomes straight up than a LOT of ATS wagers I could make, and the payout is around 1-1.5
I bet 500.00 on this parlay and won $784.66 and this is one was actually a weak one in my opinion b/c having to rely on teams like Kentucky and Tenn because of a weak SEC schedule this particular week. I wouldnt get too crazy with betting amounts + parlays b/c just too many variables involved to risk significant cheddar, but just a 1 unit bet on a parlay such as this I believe has tremendous value.

Also if you woulda thrown in some HIGHLY predictable winners into that parlay that week such as:
Georgia Tech (-420) vs. Mid Tenn
South Florida (-975) vs. Ball st
Stanford (-1125) vs. Duke
VA TECH (-735) vs. East Carolina
Oregon (-2900) vs. Nev
Wisconsin (-1075) vs. Oregon ST

you would have had yourself a 2:1 payout, not bad

Is there any value in creating a round-robin with any of these picks? Is that too much risk for a group of games?

Edit: Not this particular group of games, but if you found 5-6 M/L plays that you really liked, is there value in a round-robin?

Thanks again for your responses. Very informative.

New here but would like to see more of that round robin system...