Learning to Wager on Sports

[mount187]

New to the forum, but from what I've read, it seems like there is a lot of really good info here. That's good for me, because I need a lot of information.

Sports betting has always just been a hobby of mine that I didn't take too seriously, but at some point you get tired of getting your butt handed to you by the books, right? So I pose this question to the forum. If you were just starting out, what's the best advice you would give someone that wants to learn to pick games "the right way".

Should you follow advice from other people (pay for picks)? Are there resources anywhere for major sports that will give you tips like, "Look for NCAAF teams that have yard per catch averages like 'x'?" Is it possible to be good at picking several sports, or do you have to specialize? Do certain teams/conferences generally give softer lines than others?

[Beyond the Bets]

Beat the closing number. If you beat the closing number, consistently, again and again, over time, you will win in the long term. Or at least you should win in the long term. Try not to get the worst of the number.

Example:

Let's say you look at the Florida-Kentucky line. You see that Florida is favored by 19 points. "Hmm," you say to yourself. "I like the Gators to cover that number."

And the Gators might cover that number.

Or they might not.

But the fact remains: Had you gotten the number earlier, like many wiseguys did, you could have had the Gators at -11. That's what the Wynn opened the number at before enough $ came in on Florida that the number moved to 12, then to 13 and then, by late Sunday night, all the way to -17.5.

It's also critical to line shop. Don't lay -3.5 if there are places where you can only lay -3.

Don't be a joe public square. If you're betting primetime games, the value isn't going to be on the over or the Dallas Cowboys.

I'll try to put together a few articles that I think might be useful to you.

[Skating Tripods]

First off, welcome to the boards. Second, you already have a good head start on wagering because you're willing to learn.

I'll answer your questions first before suggesting some of what works for me.

Quote:Should you follow advice from other people (pay for picks)?

I wouldn't pay for picks. You're going to get frustrated using a service if they're wrong and even the best handicappers are regularly wrong between 40-45% of the time. If a tout goes 3/6, you have paid $25 for the picks and lost 3x the juice on your bets.

You aren't going to improve your craft that way. You're basically just buying shares in a stock. If you want to do that, literally, go buy stock in a company. That's what you're essentially doing.

That said, use Twitter to your advantage. People like @chadmillman and Teddy Covers will post what sharps are on and what squares are on. What they don't tell you is that the games the sharps are on, they hit early in the week and got the best of the number. I would always listen to suggestions of what those who know more than me say. But, I don't blindly follow them.

Quote:Are there resources anywhere for major sports that will give you tips like, "Look for NCAAF teams that have yard per catch averages like 'x'?"

Covers will put together a few pieces weekly about stats and some of their things. What I tend to do is look through the Yahoo Team Report section for the teams I'm interested in betting on or against. They can give some injury updates and talk in generalities of what to expect. They'll also have quotes from coaches. It's easier and less time-consuming than searching for local newspaper articles or radio show clips. It's not Gospel, but it can be helpful. You can find out if there are QB controversies or get a feel for if a coach is being genuine when saying Florida Atlantic is still a tough opponent. Looking ahead can be deadly, especially in CFB.

Obviously, it helps to know if a team that runs the ball well is playing against a poor tackling defense. A lot of times, that is information you have to dig for. Missed tackles isn't really kept anywhere for every college team. As you start to know teams, you'll inherently know these things.

Quote:Is it possible to be good at picking several sports, or do you have to specialize?

You can be good at picking several sports, but the value in a number changes based on the sport and how much you know about it. For example, I don't know dick about UEFA soccer or MMA. I don't bet on them. I know the NFL, but I still don't bet on it because the numbers are extremely tight and the talent gaps are far smaller than college football.

If you want, know certain teams inside and out. Specialize on them within a given sport instead of trying to handicap an entire league.

Quote:Do certain teams/conferences generally give softer lines than others?

Linemakers know a lot more about the SEC than they do the Sun Belt. Lines will be tighter in the Big Ten than in Conference USA. There's value to be found all over the place in college football. There are so many games and so many teams to be aware of.

There are "public" teams who always seem to be giving additional points because the books expect heavier betting on them. These are most evident with the NFL. Teams like Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia. Teams that are going to get heavy money from the public no matter who their opponent is. They are often overvalued and books may add a point or two to their line. Sometimes it's irrelevant, sometimes it isn't.


Suggestions from me
Because I don't really have a ton of statistical research compiled, I don't have power rankings or projected spreads, I don't bet opening numbers. Rather, I watch them and see where they go. By about mid-week, I ask myself if I am on the same side the sharps are on. The consensus of sharps. If a line opens on Sunday night at -3 and is -5.5 by Tuesday or Wednesday, that's a pretty good indicator of what the pros are on. If I'm against the pros, I do extra research as to why. What do I see that they may not? Probably not much, but I have to have my reasons. Then I determine if they're good enough.

Watch for key numbers. 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, 17, etc. Keep in mind that with the college game, most kickers suck. At least relative to NFL kickers. You cannot take extra points or short field goals for granted. If a team is giving key numbers off 6s or 7s (10s, 17s, 24s), check on the kicking status. Is the guy accurate from inside 40? Is he experienced? Things like that. You'd hate to lose a bet because some 22-year-old shanked an extra point.

When it comes to the college game, remember that the majority of these players are immature and that they are still kids. They're all prone to making mistakes. Mistakes are enhanced by environment.

Hard to abide by this based on my novel-esque post, but do not fall into information overload. You'll find all kinds of shit about a game. Ohio State has gone over the total 11 straight times in games that kick off between 12 and 4 pm on Saturdays in October after a straight up loss against a Big Ten opponent who is 4-0 ATS in their last four Saturday non-nighttime kickoffs. How important is something like that actually going to be to you? Is it solely coincidence? Who were the four opponents the other team played? Answering all these questions sidetrack your mind and keep you from looking at what is really important. Don't fall into traps like that. Trends can be incredibly misleading. Some are valid. Some aren't.

Most of all, don't stop learning. With every bet I make, I put something in my memory bank. Also, watch as many games as you can. There's no substitute for seeing a team with your own eyes. You can read all kinds of stats and trends, but you cannot fully gauge a team until you see them. That's why you can find inaccuracies with smaller conferences. If you can't see these teams, like the MAC or Mountain West, that's where doing your research and homework helps.

Don't be afraid to do what you did here and ask questions. Somebody, somewhere is going to know more about a given team than you are. Stay up to date on injury statuses with Twitter. Being informed is your chief weapon in this game.

Sorry for the long post. Feel free to ask me to elaborate on anything.

[Beyond the Bets]

What an outstanding, informative post. Thanks for your contribution, ST.

You are now the BTB poster of the MONTH.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-21-2011 06:59 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  You are now the BTB poster of the MONTH.

Can I get a trophy made by you in MS Paint to showcase my achievement?

[Beyond the Bets]

I'm SORT OF tied up at the moment, which is why my reply to the OP kind of sucked. But yes, definitely. For now, you get two rep points.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-21-2011 07:04 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I'm SORT OF tied up at the moment, which is why my reply to the OP kind of sucked. But yes, definitely. For now, you get two rep points.

Tied up, eh? I get you. That's why you moved to Vegas, right? Dominatrix room service? I think I'd have to put my smartphone away, though.

[kreatture]

(09-21-2011 06:35 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  It's also critical to line shop. Don't lay -3.5 if there are places where you can only lay -3.

Every one should have accounts at multiple books. Getting that extra half point over time will prove to be invaluable. Even up here in Canada where I have the mighty Pinnacle, I still occasionally get a better line at one of my other books (5Dimes, TheGreek). Don't just line shop for points, but also for juice. It's amazing the difference in your account over long-term when you can consistently get your pick at -105 compared to -110. If you open a new account at 5Dimes, choose the Low Juice Bonus rather than the small percentage bonus they offer.

(09-21-2011 05:50 PM)mount187 Wrote:  Should you follow advice from other people (pay for picks)?

Follow advice, yes.. pay for picks, no. You have to be careful who you trust in this business, everyone has an agenda. When you can stumble upon some pretty solid people tho and can develop a trust, then you know you're onto something good. Listen, listen, and listen some more. Wise Guys often won't come right out and say something, but if you listen you can usually read between the lines..
Look for people (twitter is a GREAT place to start) who don't try to cover up their record or make excuses for anything. Full transparency is so rare in this business, if you find someone willing to fully disclose their info (and can actually pick winners!), then I'd pay attention to them. One of the best I've found on Twitter so far is @SoMoneySports. I think he used to work for a sportsbook so he knows what he's talking about. And he's humble. A rarity in this business.

(09-21-2011 05:50 PM)mount187 Wrote:  Is it possible to be good at picking several sports, or do you have to specialize? Do certain teams/conferences generally give softer lines than others?

It is possible, but personally I think it's better to focus attention on select areas. Others will disagree.. but they're wrong I used to spread myself out across every sport there is. I tried to pick not only the US Major sports, but also soccer and other sports around the globe. It didn't work. I could not possibly become an expert on every team, in every league, in every sport. I think it's best to pick 1 or 2 sports for each season and focus on dominating that. If you wanna bet soccer, then find someone who specializes in soccer, meaning that's their main focus and what they're best at.

This year I'm not even going to look at NHL. I made the decision to devote 100% of my time on NFL & NCAAF this Fall. I would rather learn everything I can about football and dominate every weekend, than split time between various leagues and burn myself out trying to keep up.

It's the same as in the real world.. You're going to make a lot more money if you're an expert in one field, rather than a very knowledgeable person in many fields..

BTB has many various articles which will be great to read. I'm sure he'll grab a few of them and post them here.

Cheers

---

(09-21-2011 06:59 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  What an outstanding, informative post. Thanks for your contribution, ST.

You are now the BTB poster of the MONTH.

Tripod beat my reply.. I feel like I spent 40 minutes typing for nothing..

Just kidding.. all info is great and that's why this place is great. Multiple great people with lots of great info to share.

Isn't that GREAT:exclamation:

I'm worried for my sanity tonight.. is it the weekend yet??

[Beyond the Bets]

Aside from the horrible picture, there is lots of useful stuff that can be found here.

Here are a few articles that might also help you. I'll try to dig up more later on, but these should give you a decent start:

1. Risking your bank roll on trends you can't explain can be hazardous to your bank roll: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-VN
2. Should you bet on your favorite team? My answer might surprise you: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-Po
3. Information is key, but where does it come from and how do you use it?: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-BQ
4. Fades often result in friendly fire: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-yi
5. Bank roll management: When things go bad, don't make them worse by betting stupid: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-wQ
6. Five free sports betting tools you can't do without: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-uh
7. The importance of bet timing and anticipating line movement: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-u2
8. Sportsbook free-play bonuses aren't as good as cash, but they're still valuable: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-sy
9. Futures bets are investments that reward good projections, patience: http://wp.me/p1sRnX-tb

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-21-2011 07:22 PM)Mr Lucky Wrote:  Tripod beat my reply.. I feel like I spent 40 minutes typing for nothing..

Just kidding.. all info is great and that's why this place is great. Multiple great people with lots of great info to share.

No, your reply was great. You always have good info and that's what I'm most interested in. You both are stars on these forums.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-21-2011 07:22 PM)Mr Lucky Wrote:  Tripod beat my reply.. I feel like I spent 40 minutes typing for nothing..

You didn't and wouldn't have even if you had echoed every single thing I said.

Everybody handicaps a different way, but some things need to be constant. Like what you said about shopping around. Even if you have to make small bets at multiple sites because you're spreading your bankroll thin. Plus, if you're really confident in an upset ML pick, a one point difference can turn a +160 into a +175 or even higher.

I love this place. It's great to talk sports and get different perspectives.

[Beyond the Bets]

Totally agree. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of different approaches to take.

I can hit 30% of my college football bets correctly and still turn a profit while others can hit 58% and end up in the negative. I'm not a flat bettor and don't believe in that approach. In college football, there are about 10 games per year that I love, and I'll try to hit 'em hard. Fortunately, they usually go my way.

So far.

In the NBA, I'm a coin flipper. The aggressive approach I use in college football would get me killed. Probably wouldn't work so well in the NFL, either, though I am able to isolate a few plays per year that I feel very strongly about.

Bottom line: Find what works best for you, develop a plan and stick to it.

[patrickjbyrne]

To do this long term you need to have money management skills.
Don't go on hunches. Don't chase Sunday or Monday night football if you wouldn't have when the lines came out.
Always run both sides of the bet through your head. What would each team need to do to beat that number and how likely is that.
Guess the lines before you see them. Do it Sunday for the next weeks games so when the lines come out Sunday night/Monday you can evaluate your own lines. If you have some 5 point disparity somewhere you're either misjudging a team or you found value.

[RyanParrill]

(09-21-2011 05:50 PM)mount187 Wrote:  Should you follow advice from other people (pay for picks)? Are there resources anywhere for major sports that will give you tips like, "Look for NCAAF teams that have yard per catch averages like 'x'?" Is it possible to be good at picking several sports, or do you have to specialize? Do certain teams/conferences generally give softer lines than others?

I'll try to touch on a few different angles that may not have been mentioned. You've already gotten enough information to last you the rest of the week. And as it was said, that's the point. To take information in and process it. Decide for yourself what's garbage and what's not. That's the most subjective part about this. Reflecting on what you've bet/why/result will help you decide what to do in the future. If you've been burnt on a coach/team/important players, you'll learn to stay away. Of course, sometimes, that can cost you some value, but overall you'll be a happier better.

Which is the first question you need to ask yourself. "How much time do I have?" You could consume information 24/7 with all of the resources out there. Once you decide how much time you have, you can be more effective with what your portfolio looks like.

Quote:
Should you follow advice from other people (pay for picks)?

As all replies have said, follow advice and don't pay for picks. It's your money and there's not a great margin for error. Paying for picks decreases that even more. Leave you broke and pissed. Albeit at someone else instead of yourself.

Quote:Are there resources anywhere for major sports that will give you tips?

There are not specific tips like you described. And if there were, the line makers would be using them. You have to find your niche. I like to bet on a variety of things, but I'm not much of a volume better. I believe there's great value in things like MMA and NASCAR because you have access to the individuals doing it that you don't get in other sports. One of the reasons BTB will try to force you to watch a WNBA game some nights. The NFL is always going to be the most popular so the value will be harder to find. With that being said, you may find you're successful at a certain aspect betting the NFL. It could be underdogs, over/unders, 1st half/2nd half, etc. There are so many different ways to bet each game.

One way not to bet, parlays. That's just a general rule. Some people have limited success doing it and others have formed a system to try and exploit the opportunity. Almost all do not. This part is a little more podium talk from myself. You could easily find someone that would argue this.

Your woman is not your ticket. You want your woman to be sexy and your ticket to be the opposite. It's not always wrong to take the favorite or the over. People enjoy Texas getting points at UCLA and Oregon going over at home. And both of those will be successful over the long-run (Quick Side Note: One of the most important thing - Understand the long-run. You're going to lose games. You can lose and still be on the right side. Backdoor covers happen, just understand how to prevent it from being a habit. Vaseline gets old) but most people are on the over and favorite, so the value is harder to find. Betting an underdog can teach you a lot of things. One of the great things about the thread started today by BTB.

Quote:Do certain teams/conferences generally give softer lines than others?

As mentioned, the bigger the conference, more popular the team, the harder the value will be to find. If you have the patience and time to pick apart a smaller league, you'll have a strong opportunity at success.


In closing, as Skating said, if you have a question, just ask. I'll give you even-money that if you have a stupid question, I have a stupider one. Staying around this place will help you out. I'm not sure how BTB did it, I didn't find the entry process too difficult, but he's created the pearly gates of forums. All posters bring quality information in one way or another. ALWAYS make sure, at all times, you're having fun doing it.

[Skating Tripods]

(09-21-2011 06:35 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Beat the closing number. If you beat the closing number, consistently, again and again, over time, you will win in the long term. Or at least you should win in the long term. Try not to get the worst of the number.

But the fact remains: Had you gotten the number earlier, like many wiseguys did, you could have had the Gators at -11. That's what the Wynn opened the number at before enough $ came in on Florida that the number moved to 12, then to 13 and then, by late Sunday night, all the way to -17.5.

There's another thing to keep in mind with opening numbers. Not directed at you as you already know this, but to follow up with your post, I quoted it.

Sharps aren't betting these lines because they're off by a point or two. They're egregiously off. They're off by generally 4-5+ points. Professionals know better than to lay their money down on a number that's only slightly off from their projected numbers.

Furthermore, later in the week, some betting syndicates will buy a number back with a substantial amount just to get better value to bet the other side with a larger amount. For example, a syndicate may throw a mid five figure bet on a +10 to get it down to 9.5 or 9 to drop a six figure wager on the other side.

What I'm saying is that even if you miss a -4.5 and get it at -7, there's probably still value in it. It means the number is closer to what the consensus thinks it should be. At that point, it's up to you to decide what side. Just because you missed the big move on the line early in the week doesn't mean that the worse number is the wrong play. It just means you need the covering team to play a little better.

[kreatture]

(09-21-2011 07:53 PM)patrickjbyrne Wrote:  Don't chase Sunday or Monday night football if you wouldn't have when the lines came out.

Excellent point. The first 2 weeks of NFL Primetime games I've had many people ask me on Twitter which side I liked. I could tell they had a bad day and was looking for a "winback" on the final game of the day. Foolishly, I just give them the side I like without explaining to them why they shouldn't be betting on it. Fortunately, I haven't lost a Sunday or Monday night game yet so they've been happy people. I was very confident on Atlanta this past weekend and I extended that confidence on my Twitter (I think that game was personal to me..) and they all salvaged their day, luckily. Very luckily. But unlike them, I had planned on betting those games right from the start of the week. I had locked my play on Atlanta in last Monday, 6 days before the actual game. I do this with all my NFL games.

I'm not sure how these people are going to react this Sunday night when they ask me who I like in Pittsburgh/Indianapolis, when I tell them no one. I've already crossed this game off my card and it's not one I plan to wager on. Most of my NFL bets were locked in on Monday (Miami, Detroit, Atlanta) and it's not going to be much more than those. I have other games on my list (San Francisco, Tennessee, Jacksonville) who I'm watching and waiting on (final injury reports on Friday & whether odds move to the key number). If I don't get the info or lines I want, then they will be crossed off too.

Don't ever chase your losses by betting on a late game just cuz it's "available". Especially if you haven't done any prior research on it before that day. If you've had a losing day, you're probably going to lose that final game if you bet it blindly. Make a list of games you might be interested in betting in for that day, then narrow it down from there to your best plays. Don't ever add any more games to that list in the evening just cuz you've had a "bad" day.
The same can be said for "good" days. Just cuz you're up on the day, don't blindly bet the night game just cuz you're up. Pocket those profits and go to sleep happy. There's nothing worse than making a good profit for the day then giving a chunk of it back in the nightcap. You'll always go to bed angry for betting a game you hadn't intended too.

Another piece of advice.. Don't ever take your losses too hard, or celebrate your wins too much.

---

(09-21-2011 07:51 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I can hit 30% of my college football bets correctly and still turn a profit while others can hit 58% and end up in the negative. I'm not a flat bettor and don't believe in that approach.

Bottom line: Find what works best for you, develop a plan and stick to it.

This is why you should never take stock in numbers people post. If you tell me you can hit 70% on NFL games, I'm not impressed. Tell me you can hit 52% on NFL games with an average line of +120, then I'm impressed.

The touts out there who say they hit 70% - probably do. What they don't tell you is they bet nothing but -500 or greater ML's. Guess what.. he's a losing bettor, who hits 70%. Not impressed.

BTB hits 30% but has outright ML Dogs in there of +350, +425, & +700.. his % sucks, but he's a winning bettor.

Numbers lie.. that's why games aren't decided on paper.


I've always told novice bettors to flat bet their games, cuz when you're new you really don't have any idea how to gauge the value of your games and which ones you should be betting heavier on. A novice bettor can quickly get themselves into trouble if they Unit Bet on games they really shouldn't be..

Once you develop a style and learn what works for you (after many, many, many. Many, many, many, many losing experiences) then you can start to bet your picks on strength. Always bet your stronger plays strongest and maximize your wins. It's the same as in poker.. when you know you have the best hand you need to figure out how you're going to get paid the most on it. The challenge isn't about winning the hand then, it's how to maximize payment on it. Only trial and error and lots of practice will help you understand your own style and how best to take advantage of your strong hands (games).

In the end, Flat Betting isn't going to net you huge profits. You have to hit too high of a percentage to actually make enough money to matter.

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-21-2011 08:27 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Sharps aren't betting these lines because they're off by a point or two. They're egregiously off. They're off by generally 4-5+ points. Professionals know better than to lay their money down on a number that's only slightly off from their projected numbers.

Lots of the early 'shots' that pro bettors take are also anticipatory moves. I don't care what the number comes out at on Florida-Kentucky — in all likelihood, that number is going to get bet up regardless.

I think it's always a good idea to keep a list of the sharp and square teams from week to week. You'll notice that certain lines move toward certain teams on an every-week basis. That's critical to know if you're trying to get down on a particular side soon after the lines are posted (Sunday afternoon if you're in Vegas; Sunday evening if you bet offshore.)

Oddsmakers have repeatedly given Purdue and Iowa too much respect. Ditto on Nebraska, especially over the last few weeks. Auburn, too (see: Utah State and Miss State line moves.)

There are "bet on" teams and "bet against" teams and it's constantly changing.

[Beyond the Bets]

(09-21-2011 08:45 PM)Mr Lucky Wrote:  Don't ever chase your losses by betting on a late game just cuz it's "available". Especially if you haven't done any prior research on it before that day. If you've had a losing day, you're probably going to lose that final game if you bet it blindly. Make a list of games you might be interested in betting in for that day, then narrow it down from there to your best plays. Don't ever add any more games to that list in the evening just cuz you've had a "bad" day.

One of the great things about college football, especially for rec bettors, is that you can kind of map out your day by times. You might like two or three noon games, two 3:30 p.m. games, a 7 p.m. game and a late-night West Coast game. In all, you might have seven or eight games on the card.

Rather than betting all of them at once, try to develop a strategy for the entire day. Obviously, you'll have to deviate from it at times — especially if numbers change, or if the outcomes are positive or negative, etc. — but having some sort of plan is always a good idea.

The other thing I tell people is to focus your attention on each individual bet, and don't worry about what's in your account. It is an old, tired sports cliche, but "one day at a time" is so critical to surviving long term.

If you only win $50 in a day, take it and run.

Try to put together as many winning days as possible. Winning days become winning weeks and winning weeks become winning months. If every bet you place is a reaction to your current account balance, you're in trouble and you'll drive yourself crazy.

The ebbs and flows are inevitable. Focus on picking winners, consistently, over time, and let the rest take care of itself.

[mount187]

*I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.

As a bettor in the US (outside of Vegas), what are the options for books? Shopping for lines seems to be tough, since there are only certain books that will accept players from the US. Is there a list of US-friendly books anywhere?

---

Someone mentioned "beating the line".

Do you only handicap the games the week before, and peg anything that comes out a certain distance away from your line, or do you wait to see the lines and see if anything triggers your senses as "off"?

Also, with FLA/UK this weekend, if you didn't know that UK was terrible, how would you predict that the line would move more than a TD toward FLA? Do you look at coaching, recruiting, scoring, defense, all of the above, etc?

Do you do the research in the offseason and have a list of teams that you think will be undervalued? If so, how would you come to those conclusions?

---

Units vs non-units:

If you don't have some sort of unit limit, how do you decide how much of your bankroll you should risk on a given bet? Is there such thing as "too much"? Is there a set maximum, or should you be willing to wager as much as you think you have value?

---

Value vs predicted outcome:

I've read in places that you should take some bets that you aren't really confident in if it "has value". So, if you think the Braves have a 50/50 chance to beat the Phils on a given night, and the line is +200, should you bet that, since you suspect that every other time you take that bet you're going to win, and you're getting paid more than 1:1 on a win?

---

Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

---

M/L vs R/L:

Should R/L bets be avoided all together, or do they hold value? Should you just bet more on the M/L if you're that confident that a team is going to win by one or more?

[@oconnellp]

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  *I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.



Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

---

I dont think parlays are "sucker bets" at all, especially in College Football. One of my more successful strategies over the years have been parlaying strong-fair SEC teams vs. out of conference opponents. I think the SEC is so strong that pegging them for straight up wins vs outside conference opponents holds significant value. The trick is to pick games where the favorite has a significant advantage in all aspects of the game and minimize the potential for an upset.
For example:
In week 2 of this year I took -
BAMA (-370) vs PennST (PennST totally outmatched in every aspect had no shot vs BAMA)
Kentucky (-370) vs Central Mich (Kentucky looked really bad against WestKentucky in week 1, but this is where SEC trust comes into play)
Tennessee (-200) vs Cincy (didnt buy into Cincy's chances at all with their defense)
FLA (-1625) vs UAB (A given)

Now, I am more confident in these 4 outcomes straight up than a LOT of ATS wagers I could make, and the payout is around 1-1.5
I bet 500.00 on this parlay and won $784.66 and this is one was actually a weak one in my opinion b/c having to rely on teams like Kentucky and Tenn because of a weak SEC schedule this particular week. I wouldnt get too crazy with betting amounts + parlays b/c just too many variables involved to risk significant cheddar, but just a 1 unit bet on a parlay such as this I believe has tremendous value.

---

(09-22-2011 01:22 AM)@oconnellp Wrote:  

(09-22-2011 12:14 AM)mount187 Wrote:  *I'm going to ask some more questions in separate replies, so that they can be quoted/replied to easier.



Parlays:

Some people consider parlays "sucker bets". Is there any value in parlays? Should you reserve parlays for m/l games that don't have enough value on their own, or just avoid them all together? Also, are teasers a "safer/better" bet than a parlay, even though the odds are worse, or are teasers bad bets too?

---

I dont think parlays are "sucker bets" at all, especially in College Football. One of my more successful strategies over the years have been parlaying strong-fair SEC teams vs. out of conference opponents. I think the SEC is so strong that pegging them for straight up wins vs outside conference opponents holds significant value. The trick is to pick games where the favorite has a significant advantage in all aspects of the game and minimize the potential for an upset.
For example:
In week 2 of this year I took -
BAMA (-370) vs PennST (PennST totally outmatched in every aspect had no shot vs BAMA)
Kentucky (-370) vs Central Mich (Kentucky looked really bad against WestKentucky in week 1, but this is where SEC trust comes into play)
Tennessee (-200) vs Cincy (didnt buy into Cincy's chances at all with their defense)
FLA (-1625) vs UAB (A given)

Now, I am more confident in these 4 outcomes straight up than a LOT of ATS wagers I could make, and the payout is around 1-1.5
I bet 500.00 on this parlay and won $784.66 and this is one was actually a weak one in my opinion b/c having to rely on teams like Kentucky and Tenn because of a weak SEC schedule this particular week. I wouldnt get too crazy with betting amounts + parlays b/c just too many variables involved to risk significant cheddar, but just a 1 unit bet on a parlay such as this I believe has tremendous value.

Also if you woulda thrown in some HIGHLY predictable winners into that parlay that week such as:
Georgia Tech (-420) vs. Mid Tenn
South Florida (-975) vs. Ball st
Stanford (-1125) vs. Duke
VA TECH (-735) vs. East Carolina
Oregon (-2900) vs. Nev
Wisconsin (-1075) vs. Oregon ST

you would have had yourself a 2:1 payout, not bad