Largest bet to date this season goes today. (writeup for you to explain)

[gynecologist]

Appears to me all systems say go on this one..


TAMPA BAY TEAM TOTAL UNDER 3½ -120

Here is what the Rays have scored in their last 9 games respectively...


1
0
8
5 (all in first inning)
3
2
1
4
2


As you can see this is a struggling offense.. They had success one time and that was vs a stuggling pitcher.. Sabathia
is on the mound today.. Let me mention some more..






Here are some stats from Tampa's last 7 games


.157 ba
.228 OBP
.258 SLG
.487 OPS


just 5 doubles!!! thats right only 5!!!


Take out that game where they scored 8 runs how worse would these stats look?




Lets see how Tampa does vs LHP
.228 ba




Lets look at Sabathia's stats at home this season:
2.37 ERA, 0.99 whip opp's are batting .181 against him.


CC has gone at least 6 innings in every start and mostly goes at least 7 so hes a workhorse and in good form. He's given up
3 or less runs in 7 out of he's last 9 starts and those two times he barely gave up 4, both games were vs balt.


vs TB this season he's struck out 17 and only walked 4 and he pitched 8 shutout innings last time he faced them on 5/10


No Longoria and the 7-9 hitters are basically worthless. TB has a lot of key lefty bats as well.




I love this wager.

[jimmysingh9]

logic is sound. Tampa Bay with alot of left-handed bats in the lineup due to injuries, can't really take them out. hard to hit sabathia with lefty bats in the lineup.


Please check the wind and weather and umpires before making the bet. :)

[Beyond the Bets]

Rut-roh. Aggressive headline plus long-winded explanation usually spells doom.

Hopefully the sports betting message board curse doesn't strike again. Best of luck on the play.

[jimmysingh9]

I put this play in on the big parlays, so if it's the only game that loses.....................:)

[GreyMatterStats]

Hi Gyn,

For whatever it is worth we have Tampa scoring 4 tonight.

Some quick FYI's - Over 5 Year Period

TB at Yankee Stadium
Average For 4.4 Average Against 5.0

For TB in games when Price has started at Yankee Stadium vs NYY
Average For 5.4 Average Against 4.7

For NYY in games when CC has started at Yankee Stadium vs TB
Average For 3.8 Average Against 4.2

Snapshot of Head To Head Below can be found below.

Best of luck to you.

   

[briguy13]

For TB in games when Price has started at Yankee Stadium vs NYY
Average For 5.4 Average Against 4.7

Seems nearly irrelevant, no?

[ChiefZilla]

I've always thought runs scored in support of a particular pitcher are largely irrelevant, but I'd be curious to hear if anyone can counter that..

[gynecologist]

(06-07-2012 01:24 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Rut-roh. Aggressive headline plus long-winded explanation usually spells doom.

Hopefully the sports betting message board curse doesn't strike again. Best of luck on the play.

If I make a larger than usual play that I feel has a significant edge, I usually like to include reasoning with it. Just so people dont think I'm just chasing or maybe new guys would like to know how I come across a play..

I think its the right thing to do.. But I do get your point. TT's have been my bread and butter this season and I hope this play wins.. Everything I see supports TB scoring less than 4 runs, but sometimes shit happens. CC might hang a pitch with someone on base and the ball goes yard..


Nonetheless GL if anyone follows..

[briguy13]

(06-07-2012 02:26 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  I've always thought runs scored in support of a particular pitcher are largely irrelevant, but I'd be curious to hear if anyone can counter that..

I guess in a close low-scoring game, the fact that your pitcher did well might put you in a situation where you bunt and go for one run instead of playing for more? I'm stretching here...

[gynecologist]

you make a point bri

[gynecologist]

Jesus, TB wakes up on me and scores off NYY's ace.. They cant score against Nova or anyone else batting .157 lately but today they wake up..

What can you do?

[Beyond the Bets]

That's baseball. Usually, if you apply logic, you will end up in the shitter.

It's sad but true.

[gynecologist]

this wasnt a bad play, TB got some timely hits and CC was not himself today..

unfortunately TB had to do this on my behalf. oh well losing money is fun.

[ChiefZilla]

Good plays lose sometimes. Seemed like solid logic.