Kings-Coyotes Game 3: Inflated line?

[Beyond the Bets]

Kings are red hot and I haven't considered playing against them since they dismantled the Canucks in the opening series.

Probably won't play against 'em tonight, either.

But, man, it sure is tempting. Through their first 11 games (10 wins), the Kings were an underdog six times and haven't been listed as a favorite of more than -125.

Tonight, they're priced at -200 against a Coyotes team that will be desperate for a win.

[JetsMetsRangers]

Shouldn't the subject of this thread be Game 3?

[RickRude]

(05-17-2012 10:08 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Kings are red hot and I haven't considered playing against them since they dismantled the Canucks in the opening series.

Probably won't play against 'em tonight, either.

But, man, it sure is tempting. Through their first 11 games (10 wins), the Kings were an underdog six times and haven't been listed as a favorite of more than -125.

Tonight, they're priced at -200 against a Coyotes team that will be desperate for a win.

Ridiculous. Game 1 was tied going into the 3rd. 3 out of the 4 Blues games were one goal games in the 3rd. I do think LA is better than Phoenix, but for them to be a -200 favorite? No one in today's NHL should be that big of a favorite in a single playoff game. It's asinine. This isn't 1992. Besides game 2 of this series and game 2 of the Blues series the Kings are winning these games in the 3rd. A great characteristic for a winning club, but also one that could easily get them burnt one time. At +170 I will be playing the Coyotes before the game and looking for in game options.

Phoenix is going to play their best game of the series tonight. Whether that translates to a win is another point, but the value is way too high to ignore.

[ChiefZilla]

I noticed the puck line was only +155, which I also thought was a little odd.

[JetsMetsRangers]

Don't think PHO will win, but totally worth a shot.

[Beyond the Bets]

(05-17-2012 10:11 AM)JetsMetsRangers Wrote:  Shouldn't the subject of this thread be Game 3?

I was looking ahead.

Good moderating, Parrill.

[VincentValour]

Yotes +525 for -1.5 like everyone else not loving them to win, but awesome value. Maybe they pull a win off and get an empty net goal.

[RickRude]

Stats!

Since 1994 teams that have lost the first two games at home are 23-19 in the next game.

Break it down further, between 1994 and 2004 teams losing the first two at home were 18-7 in the next game. Since then (lockout) teams are 5-12 including 0-3 this year.

Between 1994-2004 all 7 teams that won game 3 after winning games 1 and 2 on the road finished the sweep.

Since 2004 only 5 of the 12 teams that won game 3 after winning games 1 and 2 on the road finished the sweep. (that includes LA this year. 1-1 in such scenarios).

I know since the lockout is a small sample size but those stats should prove that the NHL is in a totally different place. I disregard any pre 2004 stat. The margin of error is so close that the higher seeded team provides a negligble to non existent advantage anymore when in the 80s and 90s it showed a separation between teams by skill a lot of the time.

[ChiefZilla]

Uh, yeah ..... only caught a little bit of that game, but it was the same ole Kings. They're in such a groove. Tied going into the third, then sneak in a goal in the final period to go up 3-0 in the series. I'll just wait till the SC Finals to bet them again, I think.