Kentucky seems like a great bet

[blockm97]

I'm no expert. But I've watched a ton of CBB this tourney and Kentucky looks a like a considerably more talented team than Kansas. Jayhawks have survived one scare after another while Kentucky grinds out wins with superior talent and a coach (like him or hate him) that seems bent on getting his first ring. Kansas strikes me as a team that is about to run out of gas and luck. Kentucky strikes me as a team dodged a bullet with OSU not in the final game and ready to pounce on a weary and overmatched Kansas team.

Just my random thoughts, but I cannot think of one good reason to think Kansas keeps this close.

[jimmysingh9]

I am looking to play Kansas potentially here. I actually think they match up well. Davis has to be matched up with Whithey and while Whithey isnt a big scorer, its makes Terrence Jones guard Robinson and Robinson can beat Jones. I like the Taylor/Teague matchup and maybe give a slight edge to Taylor, but he could see MKG guarding him as well.

I just think this game could be close and 6.5 points seems to be too much for me. Kansas matches up better than Baylor/Iowa St/Louisville did.

[ChiefZilla]

(04-02-2012 12:09 AM)blockm97 Wrote:  Jayhawks have survived one scare after another while Kentucky grinds out wins with superior talent and a coach (like him or hate him) that seems bent on getting his first ring.

I wouldn't give the edge in coaching to Kentucky. Bill Self is one of the best in-game coaches in the country. He'll have to have some tricks up his sleeve to hang with a more-talented Kentucky team, but that's one of the factors keeping me off Kentucky in this one.

Want to wait till it starts to see what Self's game plan is.

[CTA_CAT]

kentucky ran kansas out of madison square garden in the second game of the season. i know its early, but with such a young team i think kentucky has improved more than kansas has over the season. every game, a good coach comes up with a good game plan to beat kentucky, but they haven't carried it out very often. not to say kentucky can't be beat, but i think UK wins comfortably if they play their game.

(04-02-2012 09:18 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(04-02-2012 12:09 AM)blockm97 Wrote:  Jayhawks have survived one scare after another while Kentucky grinds out wins with superior talent and a coach (like him or hate him) that seems bent on getting his first ring.

I wouldn't give the edge in coaching to Kentucky. Bill Self is one of the best in-game coaches in the country. He'll have to have some tricks up his sleeve to hang with a more-talented Kentucky team, but that's one of the factors keeping me off Kentucky in this one.

Want to wait till it starts to see what Self's game plan is.

[jimmysingh9]

actually if anyone actually remembers the first game at MSG, Kansas and Kentucky played even in the first half with Kansas having a slight edge and then Kentucky went on a big run to go up comfortably.

[ChiefZilla]

Yep, game was tied at halftime. Then Kentucky opened up the second half on a pretty decent run.

That's why I'm waiting till either in-game or halftime to place a bet. It's worked for me throughout this NCAA tournament, so I'm not shying off now.

[RickRude]

Kevin Young barely played against Kentucky the first time and I think he gets more run tonight to give Kansas some more height in the paint. Not to mention the game at the Garden was called really tight. I expect Se;f to have something up his sleeve tonight. Whether it's weird double teams or something. But if Tyshawn Taylor plays crappy it won't matter. He HAS to win the battle against Teague tonight.

I'm leaning Kansas catching the points. Kentucky dominated Louisville and still didn't cover. I would be worried about that playing them.

[the dude]

(04-02-2012 11:55 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Yep, game was tied at halftime. Then Kentucky opened up the second half on a pretty decent run.

That's why I'm waiting till either in-game or halftime to place a bet. It's worked for me throughout this NCAA tournament, so I'm not shying off now.

I agree with you here Chief. A live bet tonight is what I'll be doing.

Kansas hasn't been able to get off to a good start in any of their games, including against Detroit where it took them about 16 minutes in to start to take control.

They trailed at the half against Purdue, NCST, Ohio State and were tied with UNC before pulling away late in the second half.

If you're looking to take Kansas tonight, I think we'll be able to get a good live-bet at around +10 in the first half, or grab them at the half.

[Skating Tripods]

Just don't be upset in two years when your Kansas ML should be declared a winner because Calipari had to vacate the National Championship.

[ChiefZilla]

(04-02-2012 03:37 PM)the dude Wrote:  Kansas hasn't been able to get off to a good start in any of their games, including against Detroit where it took them about 16 minutes in to start to take control.

They trailed at the half against Purdue, NCST, Ohio State and were tied with UNC before pulling away late in the second half.

If you're looking to take Kansas tonight, I think we'll be able to get a good live-bet at around +10 in the first half, or grab them at the half.

Exactly. I was pissed at myself on Saturday night, because I said I wanted to wait until KU was +6 or higher, then grab them in-game. Well, when they fell behind early, I passed on the chance to take them +8.

"Ohio State looks like they're going to roll," I said, like an idiot.

I guess that's why it's important to have a plan with in-game betting.

[SkyBlues42]

I'm going to respectfully disagree with most people on this game, considering I agree with blockm97.

After all I've seen from Kentucky and Kansas in this Tournament, I think the play is on the Wildcats.

Kentucky won the first matchup by 10 points despite turning the ball over 19 times and shooting just 55% from the foul-line (they are better than that). I know Kansas shot poorly from the field & 3-point range, but that's a direct result of the Wildcat's length, unlike Kentucky's foul-shots, which have nothing to do with Kansas' defense.

Some have already compared this matchup with the fact that Kentucky didn't blow Louisville away, and only won by 8 points. That was possibly the biggest rivalry game, especially in the Final Four, that we've seen in some time. Different circumstances. So I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that result (just a personal opinion).

Kentucky's average margin of victory in the tournament is just under 13 points per game and the game against the Cardinals is the only one that was by less than double digits.

Also, I'm not so sure Taylor will duplicate his 22 point performance that he had in the first meeting. If Kentucky was smart, which they are, they'd force someone other than Taylor or Robinson to beat them. Stop both of those guys, and it could get ugly.

Like ChiefZilla said.. I don't agree that Calipari is the better coach. But he'll definitely have his team well prepared. Losing your last two trips to the Finals against the same opposing coach would be demoralizing.

I feel like Joe Public siding with Kentucky, but can't convince myself otherwise.

[iKnowNothing]

Kansas has looked terrible in every game. Somehow, they keep winning. I have this game as either a Kentucky blowout or a very close game of around 5 either way. I'm betting Kentucky pre-game and possibly in game on Kansas if the lines are right in the 2H. Only way Kansas stays in this is if Davis is in foul trouble. No other way I see it happening.

A matchup I think will be key is Jones and Robinson. Robinson looked dreadful on the defensive end against Hummel. I don't think this will happen but I'd love for Calipari to throw out Davis to the midrange/just inside 3pt line and get Withey out of the key. Then just go to Terrence Jones against Robinson or Kidd-Gilchrist against Elijah Johnson.

My bet that I love and betting large is Doron Lamb over 3 FTs made +115 at 5Dimes. I'd take this at even money. It just takes 2 trips to line for him and he'll get that easily.

[iKnowNothing]