ITG's sports gambling corner

[itg_sports]

For as often as I peruse this forum I do not post nearly enough. Every now and then I will have a doozy but they are few and far between.

The main reasons I don't post are that most threads in here seem way over my head, I can't find a thread that captures my interest, and some of the b.s. I want to talk about probably doesn't deserve it's own thread.

I started my blog, ITGlife.com, but I am still feeling my way around that whole deal and to be honest I have put off a lot of ideas for that spot that would just be easier to come in here and chat about.

I put this in sports betting because that is really the only stuff I will post about because it is by far the thing that I think about the most.

I don't know exactly what I'll post about yet but it will probably be details on how I handicap, things that I have learned, observations and questions on gamblers & strategies and just whatever else comes to my mind.

I lurk at other forums from time to time but this is by far my favorite place to go and the only place I post. For anyone that follows me at all you can probably tell that I don't always like to sit back in the shadows. I enjoy making an impact way more. So if there is an impact to be made by me at this place then this might be the way to do it. Who knows.

So if BTB or Parrill don't send this thread's ass packing to the off topic section or wherever they banish the misfits to then so be it.l

When I feel the ideas are worthy I will still generate new and original threads but this will just be my little degenerate section to talk to myself about what interests me in sports gambling with the hopes that someone else might talk back.

[Docwatson]

(03-08-2012 07:39 PM)itg_sports Wrote:  For as often as I peruse this forum I do not post nearly enough. Every now and then I will have a doozy but they are few and far between.

The main reasons I don't post are that most threads in here seem way over my head, I can't find a thread that captures my interest, and some of the b.s. I want to talk about probably doesn't deserve it's own thread.

I started my blog, ITGlife.com, but I am still feeling my way around that whole deal and to be honest I have put off a lot of ideas for that spot that would just be easier to come in here and chat about.

I put this in sports betting because that is really the only stuff I will post about because it is by far the thing that I think about the most.

I don't know exactly what I'll post about yet but it will probably be details on how I handicap, things that I have learned, observations and questions on gamblers & strategies and just whatever else comes to my mind.

I lurk at other forums from time to time but this is by far my favorite place to go and the only place I post. For anyone that follows me at all you can probably tell that I don't always like to sit back in the shadows. I enjoy making an impact way more. So if there is an impact to be made by me at this place then this might be the way to do it. Who knows.

So if BTB or Parrill don't send this thread's ass packing to the off topic section or wherever they banish the misfits to then so be it.l

When I feel the ideas are worthy I will still generate new and original threads but this will just be my little degenerate section to talk to myself about what interests me in sports gambling with the hopes that someone else might talk back.

I've been checking in on you from time to time just to see how things are going. Always pulling for guys like yourself.

Peace

Doc

[itg_sports]

I really appreciate that Doc. Initially, I was worried about putting myself out there but the support has been great. Sports bettors as a whole really want to see each other succeed and it doesn't get much better than that.

[RyanParrill]

[itg_sports]

I looked at three games last night.

UMass
Temple (-7.5) open (-0.7) average (-6.80) difference

Maryland
North Carolina (-15.5) open (-8.85) average (-6.65) difference

Iowa
Michigan St (-11) open (-6.05) average (-4.95) difference

In the small amount of games I have tracked (106) the value seems to open up on the dog at a (-6.60) difference.

I took Umass at (+7.5) last night with the offshores and my bookie opened them at (+8) so of course I took them again.

As of right now he has Maryland at (+16) but I just can't get myself to make a play. I was going to pull the trigger at (+16.5) but @Sprtsbetr, who is apparently a Maryland resident and season ticket holder gave me an indication that this is a "stay away" at any number. I'm gonna echo his sentiment and go with the gut.

[louiemdj]

You're my hero.

[itg_sports]

The totals for those same games...

I'll call it the opportunity line (or opp. line) rather than the open line because I make my records at the line that I have the opportunity to make a wager.

UMass
Temple (152) opp. line (147) average line. (5) line difference

Maryland
North Carolina (153.5) opp. line (143.75) average line. (8.25) line diff.

Iowa
Michigan St. (133.5) opp. line (136.55) average line (-3.05) line diff.

I got caught up in some "real life" stuff and didn't have time to catch the UNC total opening or the movement in the Temple total.

Both of those games moved to the over and I wouldn't be surprised if they both go under.

I probably wouldn't have played the Temple under even after the movement but that UNC total is just too much. That would have been an under play if I would have been able to catch it.

[itg_sports]

If you had any interest in my new thread in the Tout Zone, I will have details up later tonight.

[itg_sports]

Only was able to look at 3 last night.

Ncaab

Vermont (121) opp. line (127.6) avg. line (-6.6) line difference.
Stony Brooke (-3.5) opp. line (+0.1) avg. line (-3.6) line difference.

Lamar (-5.5) opp. line (-3.85) avg. line (-1.65) line difference.
McNeese St. (139.5) opp. line (136.55) avg. line (+2.95) line diff.

The only of these plays that stood out to me was the Stony Brooke total. It was right on the fringe of being something that would be an automatic play. Value seems to jump (with my records) at a -7.00 line difference for overs. I didn't play it though and I'm glad I didn't.

Nba

Portland (-5) opp. line (-6.05) avg. line (+1.05) line difference
Washington (200) opp. line (193.85) avg. line (+6.15) line diff.

I really like both of these plays. I don't really respect Washington's hca so Portland seemed like a good play. They have been underachieving a bit lately though so I stayed off because I liked the under play even more.

Last night 200 was only available at 5dimes so I took it. Value on the under really seems to increase at a (+5.05) line. diff. This morning 200.5 was available at Bet Online and with my bookie. I took it at both places even though I hate when the line moves against me. If we see a drop closer to game time back to 200 or even 199.5 I'll feel a lot better.

[itg_sports]

What's an invisible user? How can I be an invisible user?

[itg_sports]

I've noticed a lot of talk about money-line dogs on twitter today and how there is an uptick in their outright wins at this time of year in NCAAB. I figured I would post the results of what I have seen in my records so far.

In the 106 NCAAB games I have looked at since the first of Feb. the dog has covered 52 times.

In those 52 covers they won outright 26 times.

10 of the 26 outright wins involved dogs of 7 points or more with the highest one being 13 points.

I'll throw in the 74 NBA games I have looked at as well.

In those games the dog covered 36 times while winning outright 25 times.

9 of those 25 outright wins involved dogs of 6 points or more with the highest one being 8.5 points.

So overall in 180 games the dog covered 88 times and won outright 51 times.

So in this small sample size the dogs that cover also win 58% of the time.

[itg_sports]

I am wondering what the cutoff # is for being a selective bettor vs. a volume bettor.

I am trying to get better at picking my spots but in my last 49 bets on nights where I have made...

2 bets or less my record is 7-6.

and nights where I have made...

3 bets or more my record is 26-10.

I'm on a 2 day and 3 game losing streak and I don't like it one bit.

[Beyond the Bets]

Larger sample necessary. If one game goes the other way, suddenly you're record would have been 8-5. If two games go the other way (could be a half-point or a point, who knows), you're 9-4.

Both would be tremendous records.

[JayPrimetown]

(03-13-2012 08:00 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Larger sample necessary. If one game goes the other way, suddenly you're record would have been 8-5. If two games go the other way (could be a half-point or a point, who knows), you're 9-4.

Both would be tremendous records.

Think we have gone over this before, but the sports one plays is key in this analysis.

If one's sport is college basketball one would think they would have more daily / weekly plays than someone who only plays professional football.

Same with baseball vs the NBA... more games, more perceived edge.

[RyanB]

(03-08-2012 11:20 PM)itg_sports Wrote:  I really appreciate that Doc. Initially, I was worried about putting myself out there but the support has been great. Sports bettors as a whole really want to see each other succeed and it doesn't get much better than that.

Yep! We're all pulling for ya.

[itg_sports]

(03-13-2012 04:47 PM)RyanB Wrote:  

(03-08-2012 11:20 PM)itg_sports Wrote:  I really appreciate that Doc. Initially, I was worried about putting myself out there but the support has been great. Sports bettors as a whole really want to see each other succeed and it doesn't get much better than that.

Yep! We're all pulling for ya.

Once again, much appreciated. This thread actually helped me settle on what I think will be the master plan. As soon as I get everything figured out I will post over at ITGlife.com.

[Dixon25]

Hi ITG. I have been reading your blog. It's interesting. I believe you and I are in a similar place with this handicapping thing.

You said this a few weeks ago....

"One of the biggest challenges I have found as of late is trying to figure out how I want to handicap. I have all but abandoned any rating or score based handicapping in favor of looking for lines that seem to be out of whack."

Why did you give up on a rating/score based system?

[itg_sports]

I just posted this at ITGlife.com but I thought it might be something that you degenerates over here might like.

It's my Frank the Tank Moment.

I used to be a little like Frank the Tank when it came to betting on sports.

Two round -robin parlays involving six teams wrapped up in both two and three teamers slowed me down a bit but it was an 0-8 day in the MLB playing some heavy juice that really made me rethink some things.

I like to think that I have come a long way since then. I don’t ever make bets based on eyeball handicapping anymore, no more parlays and I don’t even blindly tail those that I really respect much less anyone else.

Unfortunately, last night I showed up to Mitch’s party. I didn’t really deal with anything like that last year but that was before I got hooked up with this network. You see, Mitch’s party was March Madness.

I have been super busy with the regular guy stuff and even some sports betting related stuff that doesn’t involve me handicapping games. Last night was gonna be my little Saturday at Home Depot. I was going to go home, reply to a couple of emails, work on some stuff for ITGlife.com, and post some nonsense on the Beyondthebets.com forum. I was thinking I might handicap some games for today but maybe not. I had lost my last 3 bets and I decided the night before I was going to take at least one day off and maybe two. That was the plan anyways.

Unfortunately, March Madness happened. I stared at that twitter timeline all morning, got caught up in my own semi-bracket contest, and it was like some young college punks calling me out.

It was a mid afternoon Stuckey tweet that did me in . Iona (+2).

One of my followers had asked me about this same play early that morning. My response was something like “Haven’t even looked at it but good luck.”

Now I was logging in to see what my Bookie had it at.

Iona (+2.5).

I loaded it up and hit confirm and let me tell you those Frank the Tank words couldn’t be truer.

“It’s so good. Once it hits your lips, it’s so good.”

No work, no handicapping, just Iona (+2.5). Hell, my last post on this very site was all about responsible tailing and here I was. March Madness or Mitch’s Party or whatever you want to call it had sunk its teeth into me.

When Iona was up by 20 I was sending self-indulgent text messages to buddies and even bragging to my wife. I was up on the stage with Snoop dog just living it up.

I couldn’t wait to post the bet screenshot on twitter after the game saying “Sorry I didn’t post guys but none the less #shipit!!”

I checked the score later on in the second half and to my surprise BYU had closed the gap. It was ok though. Iona was still up and we were still streaking to the Quad. Everyone else just had to catch up.

Well you guys know what happened next.

BYU completed the largest comeback in NCAA tournament history.

That, my friends, was my naked ass getting in the backseat of my wife’s car.

And no, KFC was not still open.

[itg_sports]

(03-13-2012 11:29 PM)Dixon25 Wrote:  You said this a few weeks ago....

"One of the biggest challenges I have found as of late is trying to figure out how I want to handicap. I have all but abandoned any rating or score based handicapping in favor of looking for lines that seem to be out of whack."

Why did you give up on a rating/score based system?

When I said I abandoned any rating or score based handicapping I should have said I abandoned my rating/score system.

The reason why I did this was because my particular system had too many holes in it. There were certain elements that I felt were important and I could not figure out how to implement them in an efficient way.

I added a very simple strategy to try and find bad lines and it quickly seemed like I this had a much stronger impact on finding quality plays than what I was doing before.

I also have mentioned that I will take plays that guys like So Money and Stuckey give out and I will put them through my particular method of handicapping. A very high percentage of them fell in line with the line strategy rather than the rating/score strategy.

All that being said I don't think I will give up on that completely. It is saved in google docs and may have its day again but for now I am focused on building a large sample size with my current strategy of finding inefficient lines.

[Dixon25]

Cool. I was just curious why you abandoned the rating system in general. I'm kicking around the idea of trying to develop one and was looking for pros/cons if you have any.