Importance of getting the best number

[Dawgfan__1980]

It's obvious how important getting the best number for your game is. I have read all the discussions via twitter from all of the pros about the line moves. Some say it is most important to bet early, some say it is most important to beat the closing number, some say it is most important to know who is moving the line and for what purpose. In the past, I have put more emphasis on handicapping the games, and I am just trying to learn about the importance of line moves.

There was a lot of movement today around lunch on several games for this week's NFL games. I have read that Tuesday is usually when the books move their numbers on NFL games, but I assumed this wouldn't necessarily be the case for these NFL games that have been out for a while. All of the things I have read lead me to believe betting under 40 in the NE/NO game would now be a bad bet at under 38.

If someone is willing to educate me a little, I have a few questions. 1) What is more important being on the right side of the opening number or beating the closing number? If RAS gives out over 142 and you lock in at 145, but it goes to 146.5, is this still a good bet? 2) Is there certain times that you should look for these movements, or are they strictly dictated by the time certain people hit the books? Like RAS releasing plays. 3) Is there anything that dictates to you which is the right side, like early movement vs. Tuesday movement vs. late movement?

Any insight is appreciated. Over the last year or so I have laid off what were winning bets because the right price was gone, having heard that in order to be a long time winner you have to master this. I am still having issues with the timing.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-07-2012 05:44 PM)Dawgfan__1980 Wrote:  1) What is more important being on the right side of the opening number or beating the closing number? If RAS gives out over 142 and you lock in at 145, but it goes to 146.5, is this still a good bet?

Over 142 is a great bet and is better than 145. However, 145 is also a strong bet and is certainly better than 146.5. The way I usually explain it is like this: If RAS places 100 bets on 100 games and bets the Over 142.5 each time; and you place 100 bets on the same 100 games and bet the Over 146.5 each time, then RAS has a 100% chance of winning more money (or losing less) than you over the long haul.

How about a one-game example? Let's say you and me both bet the Marlins vs. the Mets tonight. I get the Marlins +145 and you bet the Marlins +135. It is an impossibility for you to make more money than me on this game, assuming we bet the same amount.

You should always try to get the best number you possibly can.

Quote:2) Is there certain times that you should look for these movements, or are they strictly dictated by the time certain people hit the books? Like RAS releasing plays.

If you aren't the one making the big bets, it's completely out of your control. Important to note that early line moves don't always indicate a true position.

Quote:3) Is there anything that dictates to you which is the right side, like early movement vs. Tuesday movement vs. late movement?

See the response to Question #1. Beat the close and you're on the right side. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But over the long haul, you will be.

[Dawgfan__1980]

Thanks for the response. I guess if you aren't the one making the bets, it becomes a difficult game and probably isn't something recreational guys should focus on. I know when I have tried to play "steam" moves before, I inevitably end up with far too many games. I appreciate your insight.

[Weebay]

(08-07-2012 06:14 PM)Dawgfan__1980 Wrote:  Thanks for the response. I guess if you aren't the one making the bets, it becomes a difficult game and probably isn't something recreational guys should focus on. I know when I have tried to play "steam" moves before, I inevitably end up with far too many games. I appreciate your insight.

What books do you monitor for line moves?

[Dawgfan__1980]

Last football season I used Sports Options to monitor the books that they have on their screen. I have used Sports Insights as well. For this week, I looked at Covers' line moves page. Using all of those programs, I move Pinnacle to the 1st position, CRIS/Bookmaker next, 5Dimes, Greek, a more public book like Bovada, then some Vegas books.

My problem with the line services is mainly speed. I imagine Don Best is better, but what level do you have to bet for Don Best not to cut into your percentage? My other problem comes with the betting percentages. Sports Options will not tell you where they are getting their percentages from, and Sports Insights doesn't have any "sharp" books that share their numbers.

[jimmysingh9]

(08-07-2012 06:01 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-07-2012 05:44 PM)Dawgfan__1980 Wrote:  1) What is more important being on the right side of the opening number or beating the closing number? If RAS gives out over 142 and you lock in at 145, but it goes to 146.5, is this still a good bet?

Over 142 is a great bet and is better than 145. However, 145 is also a strong bet and is certainly better than 146.5. The way I usually explain it is like this: If RAS places 100 bets on 100 games and bets the Over 142.5 each time; and you place 100 bets on the same 100 games and bet the Over 146.5 each time, then RAS has a 100% chance of winning more money (or losing less) than you over the long haul.

How about a one-game example? Let's say you and me both bet the Marlins vs. the Mets tonight. I get the Marlins +145 and you bet the Marlins +135. It is an impossibility for you to make more money than me on this game, assuming we bet the same amount.

You should always try to get the best number you possibly can.

Quote:2) Is there certain times that you should look for these movements, or are they strictly dictated by the time certain people hit the books? Like RAS releasing plays.

If you aren't the one making the big bets, it's completely out of your control. Important to note that early line moves don't always indicate a true position.

Quote:3) Is there anything that dictates to you which is the right side, like early movement vs. Tuesday movement vs. late movement?

See the response to Question #1. Beat the close and you're on the right side. Maybe not today. Maybe not tomorrow. But over the long haul, you will be.

I understand this point BTB, but you aren't playing against RAS, so wouldn't the endgame be, whether or not you are making a profit and not doing better than RAS?

I wonder what the analysis would be in comparing RAS bet to the closing line and seeing how many times you would win by betting the closing line to RAS #.

so how many times Under 142 would win when Under 146.5 would win.


You obviously still try to get the best # in the end.

[Beyond the Bets]

(08-08-2012 08:25 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I understand this point BTB, but you aren't playing against RAS, so wouldn't the endgame be, whether or not you are making a profit and not doing better than RAS?

With all due respect, I don't think you did based on your response.

The point I was making is that if two people are betting the same side, and Person A consistently gets a better number than Person B, then Person A is guaranteed to win more (or lose less) than Person B.

To me, it's the easiest, most dumbed-down way of explaining the importance of getting the best number. It matters.

[jimmysingh9]

(08-08-2012 08:48 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  

(08-08-2012 08:25 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  I understand this point BTB, but you aren't playing against RAS, so wouldn't the endgame be, whether or not you are making a profit and not doing better than RAS?

With all due respect, I don't think you did based on your response.

The point I was making is that if two people are betting the same side, and Person A consistently gets a better number than Person B, then Person A is guaranteed to win more (or lose less) than Person B.

To me, it's the easiest, most dumbed-down way of explaining the importance of getting the best number. It matters.

So I will talk from a general public/novice handicapper perspective.

Let's say people want to tail RAS pick's which alot of people like to do.

Say he puts out France -3. That line is usually gone within a couple minutes and the novice handicapper probably will not get that line.

So should he not play France -4? or France -4.5?

Almost everything, they will probably not get the best #. Could they beat the closing #? Maybe, but how do they not know if the value is gone in the play?

So what I was trying to say is, What if you bet 1 number off RAS line everytime? What would the outcome be? Would you still make a profit, is the bottom line.

Of course RAS will make a bigger profit long-term, but who cares? If RAS is a billionaire and you become a multi-millionaire, do you suffer?

However, if getting that exact point or two is the difference between a profit and a loss, then that would be a huge difference.

I am crappy at explaining things, but it seems like alot of people ask this sort of question.

Is it worth it to bet the Bears -5, if I see a respected capper put a play out at Bears -4? Of course you are better off if the line closes at Bears -6.

but what is the correlation to winning between each point?

[Wiseguy]

I have this convo all the time. If you are taking the second number of a really sharp source, you will make out pretty well. Sure they will do better, but IMO it's a very good idea. In baseball you will have the same win % just not the same margins. IMO the sport where you see the biggest performance gap in taking the second # is Cbb.

[mount187]

(08-08-2012 09:17 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  but what is the correlation to winning between each point?

Here's a chart for football that shows you the W% difference between point-spreads up to +/- 21:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?...utput=html

You can draw your own conclusions from there, I think.

[jimmysingh9]

(08-08-2012 10:11 AM)mount187 Wrote:  

(08-08-2012 09:17 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  but what is the correlation to winning between each point?

Here's a chart for football that shows you the W% difference between point-spreads up to +/- 21:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?...utput=html

You can draw your own conclusions from there, I think.

Sorry Mount, I meant something different. I meant over the Season, how much does the spread play a factor.

So say we have Bears -3, Packers, -5, Cardinals -4. would one or two points play a factor into winning or losing your bet?

So If I bet Bears -3.5, Packers -6, Cardinals -4.5. What would be the difference between me and the first bettor over the course of a season or 3. Is it the difference between getting a profit to loss, or would it be a small difference

[mount187]

(08-08-2012 10:19 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Sorry Mount, I meant something different. I meant over the Season, how much does the spread play a factor.

Just look at the differences in W% as you move up or down the list. For each play, getting a 1.0-1.5% move means a certain % less chance you're going to win the game. It's not an exact measure of how it's going to turn out over the course of the season, but if you're consistently behind the move by 1.5 points or so, you're going to win 3-4% less of your bets.

[jimmysingh9]

(08-08-2012 10:24 AM)mount187 Wrote:  

(08-08-2012 10:19 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Sorry Mount, I meant something different. I meant over the Season, how much does the spread play a factor.

Just look at the differences in W% as you move up or down the list. For each play, getting a 1.0-1.5% move means a certain % less chance you're going to win the game. It's not an exact measure of how it's going to turn out over the course of the season, but if you're consistently behind the move by 1.5 points or so, you're going to win 3-4% less of your bets.

But the percentages is based on the ML victory not spread victory. I get that you could relate the two scenarios, but is it really close to a true relation?

[mount187]

(08-08-2012 10:28 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  But the percentages is based on the ML victory not spread victory. I get that you could relate the two scenarios, but is it really close to a true relation?

A m/l value is just a W% turned into a betting line, so it should be pretty accurate. Someone else can feel free to chime in if that's not the case.

[jimmysingh9]

I have no clue either, but just by glancing, I can't see it to being the case.

[louiemdj]

There is nothing better (well I'm sure there are) than staying away from a game because you didn't get the best number, and then seeing you would would have lost by that .5 point if you would have still taken it.

[jimmysingh9]

Let's use this.

PGF got the Eagles +1.5.

After reading more news today after both press conferences. I am going to play the Eagles +1 +102 at 5dimes.

Maybe PGF knows something, whatever. But for me, after reading the information when I recieved it, I only now feel confident to make this wager. If I had made this wager beforehand, I would only be tailing or not making an educated decision.

I do not have as good of a number as PGF. I got a better number than the opener. I may get a better # than the close or I may not.

I like the play. Let's see if the better # wins and I lose with my number. or we both win or both lose.

[mount187]

I personally think this is a rough conversation to have without some sort of criteria around what a "good" play is. I have to believe that most long-term, successful bettors have a better system than just, "Well, I have the game capped at -2.5, and the number is -2.0, so I'm going to take it." That's paying 2.38% juice (the difference between 100 / -100 or 50% / 52.38%), and only having a roughly 1% edge on the game (your true line of -2.5 winning 54% of the time, versus only paying for 53% wins). There has to be some sort of criteria they go on, such as, "I won't put money at risk if I'm not getting more than 3% value on my play," or something similar. I have to believe it's more along the lines of, "I have this at -5 in favor of Team x, but they're giving me -3.0. That gives me a 7% edge, and I'm only paying 2.38% juice." That type of edge is enormous over the course of several plays, especially when you're talking about bets amounts in the thousands or tens of thousands.

I know there aren't a ton of professionals on the forums (no offense to anyone, but none of the regulars outside of PGF claim to be pro bettors), but I'd be curious to know if I'm way off base here. I'm obviously NOT a pro bettor, I'm just trying to piece best strategies together from books I've read and research I've done. Any successful pros want to weigh in?

[VincentValour]

(08-08-2012 11:30 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  Let's use this.

PGF got the Eagles +1.5.

After reading more news today after both press conferences. I am going to play the Eagles +1 +102 at 5dimes.

Maybe PGF knows something, whatever. But for me, after reading the information when I recieved it, I only now feel confident to make this wager. If I had made this wager beforehand, I would only be tailing or not making an educated decision.

I do not have as good of a number as PGF. I got a better number than the opener. I may get a better # than the close or I may not.

I like the play. Let's see if the better # wins and I lose with my number. or we both win or both lose.

In a situation like the Eagles and in the NFL which has very key numbers. Taking +1 instead of +1.5 isn't a big deal as 1 is pretty much a dead number. Taking +3 instead of +3.5 is where you might consider to getting off the bets. In spreads it's all probabilities of most common number results.

[Edward-RAS]

You definitely want to beat the close on average. That is more important than anything else.

A live odds service can really help make some of these decisions. If you see action come on the side you want at one book, you'll usually have time to react at another book, or just hold tight if moving the opposite way, or go make the bet at the book that clicked in your favor.

As VincentValour suggested, knowing key numbers is important. 6.5 to 7.0 is huge in football, but 49 to 50 on a CFB total isn't that big of a deal.

Whether or not to play RAS after movement is one of the most difficult questions there is to answer. Our results have been so ridiculous the past 4 years that you'd be profitable playing at any number, but how sustainable those win rates are is another question, and as 2010-11 CBB showed, anyone is susceptible to a losing season. Against the close you would have won roughly 1/2 as many units as the service over the past 4 years, but with some line shopping and market timing you could do better than that. Again if you are playing against the close, you aren't beating the close, and should really take a second look at what you are doing.