How to Make a -1 Line in MLB

[BetATL]

Jimmysingh mentioned a -1 line for MLB in another thread and wanted to get a post up on it as this is always a useful tool for betting baseball.

Some books have started to offer -1 lines but in case you don't have that option here is a quick rundown on how to make your own.

I will use Wednesday's game between the Marlins and Cardinals as an example. Lines are from 5 dimes but you can actually line shop and mix and match your ML and RL bets from different books to get the best price.

This example is based on a $100 flat wager on the Marlins -1 line.

St. Louis Cardinals +160, +1.5 -145
Miami Marlins -170, -1.5 +125

1.) The first thing you need to do is get the "multiplier". Take the ML -170 and divide it into $100. (100/170) = .5882. Add 1 to the multiplier to get 1.5882

2.) Find out how much to bet on the Marlins ML. To do this simply divide the multiplier into 1. (1/1.5882) = $62.96. So you bet $62.96 on the Marlins at (-170) to win $37.04.

3.) Find out how much to be on the Marlins RL. To do this simply take the potential profit from the Marlins ML bet and wager it on the RL at +125. So you bet $37.04 at +125 to win $46.30

4.) Calculate the "odds" of the -1 line. To do this simply divide $100 by the total of the two potential profits, in this example $83.34. (100/83.34) = 1.20. So the Marlins -1 line would be about -120.


So you have:

Marlins ML, $62.96 to win $37.04
Marlins RL, $37.04 to win $46.30

If the Marlins win by 1 you "push" your bet. You win the ML and the $37.04 that comes with it but lose $37.04 on the RL bet for a net of zero.

If the Marlins win by 2 or more then you win both bets for a total profit of $83.34.

If the Marlins lose you lose both bets for a loss of $100.

[ChiefZilla]

Awesome stuff, BetATL. But I'm curious ... are there long-term advantages to making this type of play? :huh:

[SkyBlues42]

(04-02-2012 12:00 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Awesome stuff, BetATL. But I'm curious ... are there long-term advantages to making this type of play? :huh:

I would have to think the answer is no. Unless you're able to pick out the right spots. But with the payouts that the RL offers, picking the right team could be quite profitable over the season.

Look at the Yankees, for example. If I remember correctly, they've been quite profitable on the RL over the last few years. They almost always finish in the top three in run differential.

I know RL's aren't generally viewed as +EV plays (-1.5), but they can definitely be profitable if you do your homework.

[BetATL]

(04-02-2012 12:00 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Awesome stuff, BetATL. But I'm curious ... are there long-term advantages to making this type of play? :huh:

I've never seen a study done on -1 run lines so I don't really know the answer to that.

If I have a strong lean on a team but just don't feel too comfortable laying the high juice and don't like the standard -1.5 run line I'll use the -1 run line. I don't use it too often but I do think it's a useful tool to have.

The most common times I use it is when there is a low total, either due to high quality pitchers or because of a ballpark factor. An example would be if I really liked the Giants at home with Lincecum on the mound. Usually, the ML will be pretty high in this situation but the total low around 6.5-7 because of Lincecum and then also the AT&T Ballpark factor so I may want to meet in the middle of the ML and RL.

I also only use the -1 run line on home teams. I don't know the exact stat but obviously teams that win at home win by exactly 1 run more than teams that win on the road.

Believe you can also create some +EV using the -1 run line by mixing and matching books with the ML and RL.

For example, in the top post of this thread I listed the odds from 5dimes for the Cards/Marlins game. -170 is currently the best you can find on the Marlins, at least from what I see. However, the Marlins RL at 5Dimes is only +125. You can currently find Marlins RL +135 at TheGreek. So while you do have to do some shopping around you can certainly get some good numbers by mixing and matching books on your -1 run line plays.



Standard -1.5 run line bets can be +EV but like any other type of bet you just have to use them right. I know there is a table in one of the books I have that shows historical break-even percentages and equivalent odds for ML and RL's in baseball.

I'll look for it tonight and try to post the table.

[Skating Tripods]

The -1 definitely works better with the NHL because there are so many one-goal games. I have to imagine that the -1 isn't the most profitable baseball endeavor. I wonder what percentage of games land on a 1-run differential.

[ChicosBailBonds]

(04-02-2012 02:44 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  The -1 definitely works better with the NHL because there are so many one-goal games. I have to imagine that the -1 isn't the most profitable baseball endeavor. I wonder what percentage of games land on a 1-run differential.

I think it was around 22%, slightly higher in the NL.

[Beyond the Bets]

Hey BetATL ...

I received an e-mail from someone yesterday requesting a similar formula for betting teams on the +1.5 run line. I told him I'd jot something down for him, but, you know, since you're better at it ...

[BetATL]

(04-10-2012 12:13 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Hey BetATL ...

I received an e-mail from someone yesterday requesting a similar formula for betting teams on the +1.5 run line. I told him I'd jot something down for him, but, you know, since you're better at it ...

Basically, you use the same method but use the RL variable in step 1 and 2 and then the ML variable in step 3. So here's an example of what it would look like if you wanted to play the Cardinals +1 on that same game:

This example is based on a $100 risk wager on the Cardinals +1 line.

St. Louis Cardinals +160, +1.5 -145
Miami Marlins -170, -1.5 +125

1.) Find the multiplier. Take the favorite variable, in this case the RL (-145) and divide it into $100. (100/145) = .6897. Then add one to the multiplier to make it 1.6897.

2.) Find out how much to bet on the RL (the favorite variable). Again, simply divide the multiplier into 1. (1/1.6897) = .5919. So you'd bet $59.19 on the Cardinals +1.5 @ -145 to win $40.82.

3.) Find out how much to bet on the ML (the underdog variable). Again, simply wager the profit from step 2 on the Cardinals ML @ +160. This will be $40.81 to win $65.30.

4.) Calculate the "odds" of the +1 line. To do this divide the total amount of potential profit from the two wagers by $100. ($106.12/$100) = about 1.06. So the Cardinals +1 line would be about +1.06.

*The only difference in step 4 is the way you divide to get the final odds. If the total profit is <100 then you divide the total profit INTO 100 to get the odds. If the total profit is >100 then you divide the the total profit BY 100.

So you have:

Cardinals ML, $40.81 to win $65.30
Cardinals RL, $59.19 to win $40.81.

If the Cardinals win the game then you win both bets for a total profit of $106.12.

If the Cardinals lose the game by 1 then you essentially push your bet. You win the $40.81 that comes with the +1.5 RL but you lose the $40.81 that you wagered on the Cardinals ML.

If the Cardinals lose by 2 or more than you lose both bets for a total loss of $100. $59.19 on the RL and $40.81 on the ML.

[DOP]

(04-02-2012 02:44 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  The -1 definitely works better with the NHL because there are so many one-goal games. I have to imagine that the -1 isn't the most profitable baseball endeavor. I wonder what percentage of games land on a 1-run differential.

it's much higher than you think. 2011 was around 30%.

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-10-2012 07:54 AM)DOP Wrote:  

(04-02-2012 02:44 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  The -1 definitely works better with the NHL because there are so many one-goal games. I have to imagine that the -1 isn't the most profitable baseball endeavor. I wonder what percentage of games land on a 1-run differential.

it's much higher than you think. 2011 was around 30%.

I have some numbers on betting -1.5 and +1.5 and both are losing propositions over time. I don't have anything on -1 and +1, however, but I can't imagine the results are promising.

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-10-2012 07:45 AM)BetATL Wrote:  

(04-10-2012 12:13 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Hey BetATL ...

I received an e-mail from someone yesterday requesting a similar formula for betting teams on the +1.5 run line. I told him I'd jot something down for him, but, you know, since you're better at it ...

Sure, no problem. Will have something up shortly.

You rock!

[Skating Tripods]

(04-10-2012 07:54 AM)DOP Wrote:  it's much higher than you think. 2011 was around 30%.

That is a lot higher than I thought.

[BetATL]

BTB is right in that -1.5, +1.5 are usually losing propositions and because of that -1, +1 are also -EV wagers. However, there are sometimes when RL wagers can be +EV. Will post a table from a book that outlines this shortly.

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-10-2012 08:49 AM)BetATL Wrote:  BTB is right in that -1.5, +1.5 are usually losing propositions and because of that -1, +1 are also -EV wagers. However, there are sometimes when RL wagers can be +EV. Will post a table from a book that outlines this shortly.

Which book?

[BetATL]

   

*I need a lesson in how to resize pictures if anyone can advise.

Here is a table of RL conversions and the odds you need to make it a +EV wager. This table is from Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street. A good read for those that have most of the basics down.

The table is a little tough to read at first.

The way to read it is this:

First look at the price of the favorite, let's say -120. Then match that with the game total, let's say 8. So following the chart, the fair price on the RL would be +179 (I know it says -179 but you just have to change the symbol around because it assumes the fair price is the inverse of the +1.5 RL on the underdog).

If you look over this chart, one thing stands out. The fair price numbers on the RL are pretty high relative to the price on the ML. Like other types of wagers, sharps were able to exploit these numbers until the books eventually caught up and now you can rarely find numbers on the -1.5 or +1.5 that are +EV. It does still happen, just not very often.

I also only use RL wagers when I'm betting on the away team because obviously they are guaranteed a full 9 innings at bat, where as a home team may only get 8 innings. It doesn't seem like that big of difference but over the course of thousands of games it adds up.

[Beyond the Bets]

(04-10-2012 09:15 AM)BetATL Wrote:  Conquering Risk: Attacking Vegas and Wall Street. A good read for those that have most of the basics down.

justin7 from SBR wrote that book.