hmmm, after 330pm EST and still no MNF thread? (Pitt @SF)

[Whiskeytown]

strange. two 10-3 squads squaring off and not much (or any) talk of it. no one wants to tip their hand?

was SF -3... then 2.5 and likely falling.

i'll go ahead and repeat what likely went unread in another thread:

Guys! Do you not want free money?!? Stop fretting over Big Ben's ankle, cuz tomorrow they'll be calling us stealers after we take this money tonight!

Pitt C Pouncey is out... and LB Harrison is out (but Woodley should be back)... and i think we're all pretty sure hobbled Big Ben Farvisbrady will play. But 49ers LB Patrick Willis is out. I feel like that's a huge deal, even though it's not as hyped as Ben. at some point breaking down this game we get to "Dick Lebeau/Troy Polamalu v. Alex Smith."

Sanfran would like to win to keep pace with the NFC seeding, but they do have the division clinched. not saying they lay down, they just might not have the fire they need to compete with Pittsburgh. meanwhile the Steelers smell blood after watching Baltimore lose. with the Rams/Browns on their horizon, Pittsburgh knows "win one big game on MNF, and we've got the #1 seed." I trust Mike Tomlin to have them ready. if he was here, he'd say "this is a business trip."

Let's say Pittsburgh struggles a bit and SF plays their game at home and manages to win by grinding out an ugly low-scoring affair... might end up a weird 17-16 or 23-21 game and you'll be glad you have Pitt +2 or 2.5 (or 3).

But it wont matter. don't get caught up in whether it's 2.5 or 3. So maybe Pittsburgh struggled (and didn't cover) in prime time against Indy, KC, and Cleveland. They still won those games, and they'll win tonight. SF has been mostly lights out SU and ATS, but that party is over and tonight's the night we wonder if they're called the "Niners" cuz they can only score 9 points as watch Pittsburgh steal the division from the Ravens.

not sure who "the public" or the "sharps" are backing, and to what degree... seems like a lot of people are falling in love with SF giving less than 3, perhaps due to the absense of Pouncey/Harrison and the (mistaken) fact that Pitt has clinched a playoff spot (ok, that IS a fact, but now controlling their fate for the #1 seed means they have more motivation, not less).

i'm on Pitt. i only got them at +2, but shouldn't matter as they will likely win outright.

[JSpauny]

I took Pitt +3 as soon as word got out about Big Ben potentially starting last night because I figured it would drop below 3 and I wanted that key number no matter what. Now I'm kind of worried because it seems like Steelers +2.5 or +3 is the play here but a lot of guys I have faith in (So Money for example) are saying SF is the side. I'm a little worried since the SF backers are legit but I just don't see how Pitt isn't the way to go here.

[Beyond the Bets]

I doubt I'll be touching this game, but people I respect (ah-hem, So Money) are on the 49ers.

[jimmysingh9]

It's so hard backing the niner's against a good defense IMO.

the key for me is do I trust the Pittsburgh offensive line?

Because the biggest mismatch to me is the WR's vs the SF secondary but I am not sure Ben is going to have time to let his speedy receiver's develop those routes.


This is just a small note but I wonder if Ben was/is injured to the point where if he plays tonight that he could cause more damage to that ankle, would the Steelers let him play knowing the playoffs are in a couple weeks? I know the bye is important, but they dont have a shot if they risk Ben here. I wonder what their mindset is with this game.

[JayPrimetown]

When's the last time the Niners won a big primetime game?

[KepowOb]

(12-19-2011 03:48 PM)Whiskeytown Wrote:  was SF -3... then 2.5 and likely falling.

(12-19-2011 03:56 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  I doubt I'll be touching this game, but people I respect (ah-hem, So Money) are on the 49ers.

According to So Money (on twitter) the money that went into Pitt was an attempt to shift the line, now that it's below -3, I think a lot more money might end up on SF.

My main concern with backing the Steelers is what Jimmysigh touched on about Pitts O-line. Even if Big Ben starts, he probably won't be as mobile as he usually is, and I think SF will be be able to get to him often. That said, I hate doubting him in a big game.

[SkyBlues42]

If the books think that the money is coming in to shift the line, why don't they just hold steady and keep it where it's at?

Too much risk on their part if they don't? Just seems like they are getting pushed around when that occurs.

[Whiskeytown]

good points, the Pitt line is always a concern..... but Ben has made a career out of his escapability and keeping the play alive until his WR's can break free. certainly Ben/Pitt gives up a LOT of sacks... you know who's given up even more? SF.

so do you trust Ben vs. a Pat-Willis-less niners D, or Alex Smith vs. a Harrison-less Steeler D?

[Skating Tripods]

(12-19-2011 04:31 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  If the books think that the money is coming in to shift the line, why don't they just hold steady and keep it where it's at?

It's all about who the money is coming from. Big syndicates will drop five figures on PIT to move the line just to drop six on SF at under 3. You respect the bet based on who it comes from, not how much it is.

It might be a guessing game for the book as to if that's a syndicate's true position or not. But, I would think that, more often than not, they'll move the line to keep from being exposed by other syndicates who may pile on. If they get played back at, it's just the nature of the business.

As an example, let's say a syndicate drops 50k on PIT at +3. Then another drops 50k on PIT at +3. Then they move the line to 2.5. They get 100k each from the same syndicates at SF 2.5. What's better? Being completely exposed at PIT +3 or having a limited exposure because you've got money on both sides.

Might be a poorly worded example in retrospect, but I think you get the idea.

[SkyBlues42]

(12-19-2011 05:00 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(12-19-2011 04:31 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  If the books think that the money is coming in to shift the line, why don't they just hold steady and keep it where it's at?

It's all about who the money is coming from. Big syndicates will drop five figures on PIT to move the line just to drop six on SF at under 3. You respect the bet based on who it comes from, not how much it is.

It might be a guessing game for the book as to if that's a syndicate's true position or not. But, I would think that, more often than not, they'll move the line to keep from being exposed by other syndicates who may pile on. If they get played back at, it's just the nature of the business.

As an example, let's say a syndicate drops 50k on PIT at +3. Then another drops 50k on PIT at +3. Then they move the line to 2.5. They get 100k each from the same syndicates at SF 2.5. What's better? Being completely exposed at PIT +3 or having a limited exposure because you've got money on both sides.

Might be a poorly worded example in retrospect, but I think you get the idea.

Right, but if they hit you back after the line moves, then you are more exposed at the new number. Depending on how much they bet on the new line.

Example: If the line is at -3 and they want Pitt at +4, they would lay a hefty sum on San Fran to get the line to move. Once it does, they hit it even harder the next time on Pitt +4, leaving them more exposed on the Pitt +4 than they were on the San Fran -3.

I understand that its the person (typically) that moves the line, but shouldn't they assume that the public is going to hit one side harder than the other, closer to game time? So leave the line as it, when dealing with a key number.

[jimmysingh9]

(12-19-2011 05:00 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(12-19-2011 04:31 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  If the books think that the money is coming in to shift the line, why don't they just hold steady and keep it where it's at?

It's all about who the money is coming from. Big syndicates will drop five figures on PIT to move the line just to drop six on SF at under 3. You respect the bet based on who it comes from, not how much it is.

It might be a guessing game for the book as to if that's a syndicate's true position or not. But, I would think that, more often than not, they'll move the line to keep from being exposed by other syndicates who may pile on. If they get played back at, it's just the nature of the business.

As an example, let's say a syndicate drops 50k on PIT at +3. Then another drops 50k on PIT at +3. Then they move the line to 2.5. They get 100k each from the same syndicates at SF 2.5. What's better? Being completely exposed at PIT +3 or having a limited exposure because you've got money on both sides.

Might be a poorly worded example in retrospect, but I think you get the idea.

great point. I have a question to that. Can't the syndicates buy a half point instead of losing out on the juice of betting both ways? does it work out the same way at getting SF 2.5 with more juice?

[Skating Tripods]

(12-19-2011 05:05 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Right, but if they hit you back after the line moves, then you are more exposed at the new number. Depending on how much they bet on the new line.

Example: If the line is at -3 and they want Pitt at +4, they would lay a hefty sum on San Fran to get the line to move. Once it does, they hit it even harder the next time on Pitt +4, leaving them more exposed on the Pitt +4 than they were on the San Fran -3.

I understand that its the person (typically) that moves the line, but shouldn't they assume that the public is going to hit one side harder than the other, closer to game time? So leave the line as it, when dealing with a key number.

Right. I get what you're saying. 3 is an especially key number in a matchup like this. I think, like I said, the theory would be that you balance your exposure as much as you can. Going under 3 would likely give you way too much exposure on the SF side. I agree with your argument there.

It's generally extremely heavy money to push a number off 3. So, we have to be taking about some very heavy hitters here and all of their followers.

We'd probably need Fuhrman to help us out with this to get a better view of what's going on.

---

(12-19-2011 05:07 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  great point. I have a question to that. Can't the syndicates buy a half point instead of losing out on the juice of betting both ways? does it work out the same way at getting SF 2.5 with more juice?

Sure, they could, but if you're betting huge sums of money, -130 v. -110 is not a wise a move.

So, if they play SF at -2.5 (-130) for 100k, for rough math, they win 70k. But, they've already bet 50k on PIT +3. So it's a net gain of 20k.

If they just wait, they'd add roughly 20k more in winnings for a net gain of 40k by getting the 2.5 at the regular -110.

[ELP24]

Somewhat off topic but what site(s) do you guys use to keep track of line movements? The only one I know of is Scoresandodds.com but I'm curious if there are a few more. Thanks.

[ChiefZilla]

(12-19-2011 07:12 PM)ELP24 Wrote:  Somewhat off topic but what site(s) do you guys use to keep track of line movements? The only one I know of is Scoresandodds.com but I'm curious if there are a few more. Thanks.

Covers has a "Line Moves" section under each game on their scoreboards. For example, this is their "Line Moves" page for tonight's game.

[ELP24]

(12-19-2011 07:46 PM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  

(12-19-2011 07:12 PM)ELP24 Wrote:  Somewhat off topic but what site(s) do you guys use to keep track of line movements? The only one I know of is Scoresandodds.com but I'm curious if there are a few more. Thanks.

Covers has a "Line Moves" section under each game on their scoreboards. For example, this is their "Line Moves" page for tonight's game.

Thank you but im looking for more of a live page. I was on one the other day that I liked but cant for the life of me find it again. It wasn't scoresandodds, that I do know.

[jimmysingh9]

if you want a true live odds service, you will have to pay quite a price for it. there are sites that give you about 20-30 minute lag time.

for real time odds, I believe donbest.com has a trial version for a week for the their real-time odds. its really expensive if you actually pay for it but its really good, so you can try out the week free trial version and see if it's to your liking

[ELP24]

Well it doesn't have to be "live" per se. im kicking myself for not remembering the one I was on several weeks ago. Thanks Jimmy

[Skating Tripods]

(12-19-2011 08:11 PM)ELP24 Wrote:  Well it doesn't have to be "live" per se. im kicking myself for not remembering the one I was on several weeks ago. Thanks Jimmy

SportsbookSpy is probably what you're thinking of. They're on about a 30-45 min time delay for those who don't want to pay.

[JSpauny]

Lesson of the night: never bet against So Money.

[louiemdj]

(12-20-2011 12:27 AM)JSpauny Wrote:  Lesson of the night: never bet against So Money.