Hedging Futures Tickets

[SkyBlues42]

I know most people in here have at least a few tickets left in play. When (if ever) would you begin to start thinking: Hedge?

Do you wait until the Elite Eight, or Final Four? Or do you start as early as the Sweet 16, especially if your ticket is on a double-digit seed?

Just curious to hear everyone's thoughts.

[jimmysingh9]

I think it will depend on how big the odds of the future ticket is. Having a future on a big odd team would be hard to hedge right now because you would be laying so much juice against them.

I would say wait till at least sweet 16 and then it all depends on how many teams you have left and what is in your way

[SkyBlues42]

I know if I had Kentucky, Ohio State or another team like that, I wouldn't hedge until the Final Four (actually, probably not until the championship, since I think both make it).. Really just trying to find out what others plan on doing.

I know a lot of people have said they have futures tickets on teams in the field. With mine, there's no way I'll be hedging before the Sweet 16. Even then, depending on the matchup, I might wait until the Elite Eight.

[jimmysingh9]

if you would like to tell me the teams you have left, I can help out and discuss hedge options. i took a bunch as well for only a couple dollars at over at least 100-1. I wont look at those till at least this weekend.

[SkyBlues42]

(03-17-2012 12:09 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  if you would like to tell me the teams you have left, I can help out and discuss hedge options. i took a bunch as well for only a couple dollars at over at least 100-1. I wont look at those till at least this weekend.

I have two tickets left, and both are on Xavier. I bought them once early in the season when they were ($50) 75-to-1 and again later in the year when they were 200-to-1 ($50).

Xavier tickets look like this: Total Risk - $100; To Win -$13,750.

Essentially.. my bet looks like this: $100 on Xavier 137.5-to-1 to win NCAA tournament.

(Keep in mind, I'm in the hole for a total of $50 on my other futures tickets, since UNLV and Cal both lost)

[ChiefZilla]

I have Xavier ($20 to win $3,000) and Iowa State ($10 to win $3,000) left alive, and I think I'll wait until the next round.

Really pissed about ISU's draw. That team is legit, but don't think they can beat Kentucky and the ML on Ky is too much to make hedging a possibility. Xavier should hopefully beat Lehigh, but I'm gonna wait it out on both teams.

[ChicosBailBonds]

5dimes in-game and props/futures are your best friend here.

[SkyBlues42]

I figured I'd do 5dimes in-game. But still going to wait until the Sweet 16 (hopefully). Best case scenario, Colorado defeats Baylor tonight. Would ALMOST guarantee Xavier a spot in the Elite Eight. Lehigh is obviously a good team, though.

[SkyBlues42]

Xavier

The only downfall .. sharing a Region with Kentucky is going to make it difficult to hedge.

[ChiefZilla]

(03-19-2012 09:58 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Xavier

The only downfall .. sharing a Region with Kentucky is going to make it difficult to hedge.

My thoughts exactly. I was really hoping the Kentucky-Indiana game would be after the Xavier-Baylor game, just so I could sort of plan out my hedging strategy a little better.

As it is, I'm only in for $20, so I think I'm gonna keep waiting it out and hope Xavier pulls off the upset of Baylor.

[The Cosmic Kid]

I suck at hedging futures. I always wait too long and end up with nothing.

[VincentValour]

Any opinions on hedging any of the following:

Win the tourney

Michigan st. +3100
Kansas +1400
Indiana +4700
Marquette +4500
Wisconsin +7300

Was thinking let Indiana ride as not much value hedging against Kentucky, then hedging the other four on a parlay

Syracuse ML -180
Florida ML +110
Louisville ML +180
NC. St. +8

pays +16.46-1

For the most part letting it ride but using the parlay to avoid total disaster. But using the Kansas/NC State spread instead of the ML for hedge/middle opportunities 2h or live betting, as it would be very surprising to see Kansas lose outright. But the other games are much more toss ups.

Also considered a 3's and 4's round robin, but probably way too early for that and the hedge cost would be too steep.

Or maybe just ride it out and hope for 2-3 teams in the elite 8.

[lindetrain]

Can't really hedge MSU till the Final Four if you want to make more than a couple units, can't hedge KU till the Final Four (odds too low), and can't really do much with the other three until the Elite Eight. Even with the long shots, you couldn't hedge much more than just getting your money back in the Elite Eight, if you actually wanted to make decent profit on the future in the end.

Realistically, your best chance will be finding odds at an offshore book on those teams NOT to win it all once they reach the desired round, and hedging that way. It'd be so much easier than hedging game-by-game.

[Beyond the Bets]

(03-20-2012 04:41 AM)lindetrain Wrote:  Realistically, your best chance will be finding odds at an offshore book on those teams NOT to win it all once they reach the desired round, and hedging that way. It'd be so much easier than hedging game-by-game.

This.

It's been discussed before, but I think some folks are looking to hedge almost immediately, rather than wait on the REAL reason you placed the bet — to cash a big ticket.

What is the point of tying up your money for several weeks or months if you're only trying to grind out a profit of 2 or 3 units. If that's all you're after, why not just place a 2 or 3 unit bet on a side?

Can you hedge a huge longshot beginning in the Sweet 16. Of course. (Well, unless you're in Kentucky's region. That might be hard.) But, in all likelihood, you should probably wait until at least the Final Four ... and keep the large payout as much intact as you possibly can.

[VincentValour]

Yeah ultimately I came to same conclusion after posting. Didn't think about the teams NOT to win the tourney tho. Good stuff.

[ChicosBailBonds]

For the Mich St future - if you have it to win big money, play the other team 2nd half if MSU is losing or tied for the amt you have into the future. at least it's a free roll then.

---

Last year was great with a lot of big odds advancing.

[VincentValour]

Yeah what sucks about this year is Kentucky really screws up hedges. Hoping they go down soon (sorry lindetrain) then stuff could really get interesting. Indiana then maybe Baylor is a pretty tough road to the final 4.

[SkyBlues42]

Any suggestions, with the Xavier/Baylor game going on tomorrow? I'm basically under the impression that I'm SOL, since the Musketeers are in Kentucky's Region.