Heat/Thunder GAME 4

[illadelphia]

I like OKC +145 on the ML tonight.

I see a few things that will likely change tonight and help the Thunder get a W.

Foul shooting - Thunder shot 80% during the regular season. But in Game 3 they shot 62% (15 of 24) and are shooting only 70% (54 of 77) for the series.

Foul Calls - Say what you want about the NBA but the referees can and often do have an impact on the outcome of the game. Durant won't pick up 5 fouls again tonight as he did in both Games 2 & 3 and he won't have to sit on the bench due to foul trouble. This will be a more physical game but the refs will let the play.

The beard - Harden was the NBA 6th man this year for a reason. He is a catalyst off the bench, or he was until this series where he is shooting 41% and averaging just 11.5 ppg. Harden plays well with a chip on his shoulder and his performance thus far should provide him with that chip tonight.

Home Court - Forget the cliche "one game at a time" bullshit. OKC knows that if they win tonight, it becomes a best of 3 series with 2 games in OKC. Even though the Thunder are young, they aren't dumb. They don't want to be down in a 3-1 hole with one more game still in Miami.


Let me know what you guys think. I always enjoy seeing the other side and areas that I have overlooked or overemphasized.

[Wiseguy]

I agree with a lot of what you said Philly, however, the Heat have not played there best game imo. Lebron has been really good but Bosh and Wade offensively have not had a real efficient game yet. The Heat were terrible last game from outside of 10 feet. I forgot the exact numbers but they were hard to believe. I'm not sure it will happen tonight but there will be a game where these guys hit jump shots. When that happens it will be a blowout. Spo made a great move last game when he had Jones, Battier in the game with the big 3. This spaced the floor allowing James and Wade lanes to the hoop. When Haslem and a cold Chalmers were in there Okc did a better job clogging the middle.

For Okc, they have to do a better job of keeping the Heat out of the paint, Im not sure they can do that. You have to think Harden will be better and Durant will most likely stay out of foul trouble tonight. Foul shooting will most likely revert back to being very good but they do not attack the rim like Miami so I do not see the disparity changing a whole lot. I fully expect Battier to come back to earth a little.

Bottom line is things can get better for the Thunder but also the Heat.

[ChiefZilla]

This series has become incredibly difficult to predict for me on a game-to-game basis. I took the Heat series price before it started, but I've struggled on individual game wagers. The bottom line is these are two very evenly matched teams, and each game just seems so up in the air.

That said, the Finals are won in the paint. It's been that way since the beginning of time, it seems. You live and die with outside shooting, and right now the Thunder are a lot more reliant on jump shooting than the Heat.

I think the Thunder can get it figured out, though. At least enough to steal one and bring it back home. I really don't think this series ends 4-1 in Miami, so I see OKC winning one of the next two......

.....I just have no idea which one.

[BetATL]

Agree that this series is difficult to predict.

As far as the foul situation goes, the Heat are the more aggressive team on the offensive end. After watching Sunday nights game it seems that the Thunder are taking a page out of the Celtics playbook and playing very physical on defense in hopes of frustrating and wearing down the heat players.

I don't think much will change there so don't be surprised if the Heat shoot 10+ more FT's than the Thunder again tonight. Something that I believe should be factored in.

[illadelphia]

(06-19-2012 02:45 PM)BetATL Wrote:  I don't think much will change there so don't be surprised if the Heat shoot 10+ more FT's than the Thunder again tonight. Something that I believe should be factored in.

How do you factor this into the game tonight? Lean over because Heat will score more with the clock stopped? Lean on heat because OKC will be in foul trouble?

I am trying to see this from the "other" side because like everyone above has said, this ain't any easy matchup to crack.