Friday MLB

[JSpauny]

Since BetATL is slacking (kidding), I'll start it up.

Ton of games. I'll post my thoughts later.

[DOP]

cant post BOL site but I think its crazy that Ricky Nolasco is -200 tomorrow. Havent decided if I'd bet it though

Think Wolf +130 looks ok.
Was hoping for more on Santana than +115, seems like everyone knows that Kuroda will suck this year.

IMO, the fact that McDonald v Cain is lined the same as Dickey v Lee is odd. I think Pirates/Giants should be tighter, especially when you consider that Cain is only 25-22 over the last 2 years.
Only issue is that McDonals was much worse on the road last year.

HAvent made any formal decisions. What did you guys think?

[BetATL]

Thanks for getting this up, looks like we have two threads for Friday though. Is there a way to combine them BTB?

Anyway, haven't been able to look through the games yet in-depth but just saw the opening odds. Without much research a few that stick out to me are:

Reds @ +140
Brew Crew @ +130
Astros @ +185

Going to do a little homework and then post some thoughts shortly.

[Beyond the Bets]

[BetATL]

Cubs @ Cardinals - 3:35 P.M. EST

St. Louis' home opener with trimmings of a World Series celebration. I'm high on Wainwright this year and think he'll handle this Cubs offense tomorrow. Smardzjia looked good in his first start of the season. Cards bats have been hot lately but believe they might start to cool. May look at an under play here.

Pirates @ Giants - 4:35 P.M. EST

Giants home opener. Giants struggling right now w/ a 1-4 record. Pirates bats really struggling right now and have to believe Cain will bounce back at home after a rough first start. No interest in laying that price with the Giants right now though and no real opinion on the total either. May look towards under closer to the game.

Mets @ Phillies - 7:05 P.M. EST

Mets offense struggling without Wright, who should be out again. Lee is dominant against the Mets so certainly not going against him here. No interest in total either at 6.5. Will most likely not get involved with this one.

Reds @ Nationals 7:10 P.M. EST

Zimmerman had one good start and one not so good star against the Reds last year. Arroyo isn't anything special but believe he can keep them in this one and I like the Reds bullpen. Would like to see Phillips in the lineup if I am going to back the Reds, may wait till tomorrow to see if that happens.

Astros @ Marlins 7:10 P.M. EST

Should be an interesting game with the whole Ozzie fiasco taking center stage. Not much history here with Nolasco and a young Houston team. Houston is playing scrappy right now though and the Marlins just seems a bit off. May play Houston here.

Brewers @ Braves - 7:35 P.M. EST

Braves home opener. Braves with 2 wins in a row after losing 4 straight. Chipper's return to the lineup has helped turned things around and looks to have provided a spark. Wolf has struggled against the Braves historically. Some key Brewers with good numbers against Jurrjens. Will be on the Over 7.5 in this one.

D'Backs @ Rockies - 8:40 P.M. EST

Rockies bats busted out Wednesday night after struggling early on. Line opened at Rockie -120 but has since moved sharply down almost to a pick. Actually like the Rockies if the line keeps moving and I can get them as a home dog. D'Backs playing good ball right now but have a late game tonight in San Diego and then will have to travel.

Padres @ Dodgers - 10:35 P.M. EST

Dodgers and Dads open up a 3 game set. As usual, Padres bats are struggling. Dodgers playing good ball right now. Both these pitchers faced the opposing team just last week so advantage hitters here. Richard won that battle has Harrang got hit hard against his old team and the Dodgers lost 8-4. May back San Diego here but believe the line will rise a bit so going to wait.

[SkyBlues42]

Dback +120 with Hudson on the mound? Like those odds. The travel doesn't really concern me at all. It's not like they are going very far.

[BetATL]

(04-12-2012 02:19 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Dback +120 with Hudson on the mound? Like those odds. The travel doesn't really concern me at all. It's not like they are going very far.

Line opened there but quickly moved to -105, where it's at currently.

Also just pulled the trigger on Padres and Reds so already 4 plays for me tomorrow, more than usual this early on.

[SkyBlues42]

San Diego line see much movement? The Dodgers look a lot better this year, than they did in 2011.

[JSpauny]

I ended up taking Hou, Bal, NYM, TB and Mil.

TB and Milwaukee are my two favorite bets. The Houston, Baltimore and New York bets are based on my numbers being far off from the openers. Plus I don't trust Nolasco or the Phillies offense.

Think TB and Milwaukee should both have the advantage in every aspect. Their prices were too good for me to pass up.

[DOP]

what do you guys think about Colon v. Hernandez? Each guy pitching against the opposing team for the 3rd time in a row. I'd have to think the hitters should have a significant advantage.

I may actually play an Over here.

[JSpauny]

(04-12-2012 09:37 PM)DOP Wrote:  what do you guys think about Colon v. Hernandez? Each guy pitching against the opposing team for the 3rd time in a row. I'd have to think the hitters should have a significant advantage.

I may actually play an Over here.

I think your logic is spot on. Totally agree with the play. Gotta figure the hitters should have adjusted at least a little bit by now. They'll have tons of film and probably have seen everything the opposing SP has to offer.

[BetATL]

NL market movers for Friday, opening and current numbers are from BOL.

Pirates - Opened +180, down to +169
Reds - Opened +140, down to +128
Brewers - Opened +130, down to +112
D'Backs - Opened +120, currently -102
Cubs/Cards - 7.5 to 7
Pirates/Giants - 7.5 to 7
Reds/Nationals - 8 to 7
Brewers/Braves - 7.5 to 8

[ChicosBailBonds]

I don't trust the cubs bullpen. With Berkman out, a 5-inning under may be a worthy play. Samardija has pitched very will in the spring and his 1st start.

[jimmysingh9]

I am on the 4 road teams in the day game.

talked about Tampa Bay on twitter. Devastating Lefty in Price should be too much for a below average Sox lineup. takes away from Ellisbury, Gonzo and Ortiz. Youk is struggling, and Pedrioia is the only guy hitting in that lineup. Beckett hasnt been great and while he might bounce back, he's gotta have on his mind if he gets a booing from the home crowd from the crap from last year.

gonna take a shot with the Angels. I know their bullpen sucks and Santana can get hit from Yanks but dont trust Kuroda as a fave here. Hoping an easier hitting ballpark help Pujols.

taking the Tigers as well. Peavy and Schrezer should be an even battle but like the Tigers lineup alot more here.

taking a shot with the Cubs. Samarijizia(sp?) has pitched well and while Wainwright will be tough to go against. I think the pregame festiviities hurt the defending champs and while the place may be electrical the cards players might be a little less focused coming into this one.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Scherzer is a .500 pitcher on the road. You really want to bet him at home.

[RyanParrill]

(04-13-2012 10:26 AM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  Scherzer is a .500 pitcher on the road. You really want to bet him at home.

While true, the appeal may come from him playing the White Sox, who he has had success against. Allowed 4 runs in 29 innings of work against them last season.

Still doesn't discount your point, he likes to be home.

[SkyBlues42]

(04-13-2012 10:04 AM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  talked about Tampa Bay on twitter. Devastating Lefty in Price should be too much for a below average Sox lineup. takes away from Ellisbury, Gonzo and Ortiz. Youk is struggling, and Pedrioia is the only guy hitting in that lineup. Beckett hasnt been great and while he might bounce back, he's gotta have on his mind if he gets a booing from the home crowd from the crap from last year.

I'll take teams like Tampa, LA, NY, Det, Tex etc over Boston until they improve. They haven't really shown any signs of being an elite team this year.

[JSpauny]

(04-13-2012 10:26 AM)ChicosBailBonds Wrote:  Scherzer is a .500 pitcher on the road. You really want to bet him at home.

Pitcher W-L record...gross.

Contrary to what you guys might believe, he has a lower career xFIP (3.59 to 3.79) on the road.

xFIP STRIKES AGAIN!

He has a lower FIP (3.71 to 4.03) at home though.

But those are career #s, last two years he has pitched much better at home than on the road according to both FIP and xFIP. So yes I agree that he's not exactly backable on the road.

---

Jimmy & Sky, love TB today. I honestly thought they would open at even odds or small favorites. I think oddsmakers are going to be slow to adjust on the BoSox being off right now because the pedigree factor. I'll take advantage of that extra value on the opposition every time, especially when it's a better team like the ones Sky mentioned.

[RyanParrill]

Quote:Contrary to what you guys might believe, he has a lower career xFIP (3.59 to 3.79) on the road.

When looking at Scherzer, do you believe his career xFIP or his career while playing for Detroit xFIP? Since they're not the same, only 1 can be right.

[JSpauny]

(04-13-2012 12:32 PM)RyanParrill Wrote:  When looking at Scherzer, do you believe his career xFIP or his career while playing for Detroit xFIP? Since they're not the same, only 1 can be right.

The Detroit one. I think part of the lower on the road xFIP can be explained by having to pitch in ARI for 2 years. That place could inflate anyone's numbers.