Friday CBB

[zman1415]

Potential WTF: Sagarin has Wyoming as 6 point favorites over Colorado on a neutral court, but they are now listed as 6 points dogs to Colorado. KenPom has them as almost dead even. What am I missing here?

Also adding that Wyoming has played NOBODY, but blown them all out. I suppose this is their first true challenge, and therefore, maybe not the spot to back them. On the other hand, Colorado has played mostly nobodies, but instead of blowing those nobodies out like Wyoming, they've played tight games with them. OT vs Air Force, 5 pt game vs. Western Mich, loss to Maryland, loss to Colorado St.

[JayPrimetown]

I thought Colorado has a win over Georgia.... not sure how good that even is.

I like Wyoming as well... heck that MWC conference is intriguing as a whole given how well UNLV and Boise have played. Colo St. are better than their loss to Duke indicates.

[zman1415]

You're right, they do have a win over Georgia, I missed that earlier. Still not sure it's worth anything after Uga lost to GT the other night. Does anyone wanna post their thoughts on Richmond/VCU at VCU -3.5? I'm locked in a bit of a bracket battle and though I have a few initial thoughts (not enough to make a real play), I don't really wanna tip my hand just yet.

[CampusCappers]

In their only road game of the season, Wyoming managed only 44 points. To me, the best value on the board tomorrow is the under in that Colorado / Wyoming game. Total currently sits at 131.5, I'm making small play on the Under. good luck everyone!

[Jaeger62]

(12-09-2011 12:27 AM)CampusCappers Wrote:  In their only road game of the season, Wyoming managed only 44 points. To me, the best value on the board tomorrow is the under in that Colorado / Wyoming game. Total currently sits at 131.5, I'm making small play on the Under. good luck everyone!

Wyoming also plays very good defense holding teams to 50ppg. Granted it was Bradley and Utah Valley but they held their last two opponents to 1-32 shooting from 3pt range. That's pretty good no matter who you play.

I'd be tempted to take Wyoming +6 but yeah, the under looks like a good play.

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Looking at the Florida game, does the 155pt total seem high? The spread of 26pts means if Florida scores 90 that leaves Rider needing 65 at least. Does rider have the horses to get much above their season average of 68pts against Florida?

The fact that this is at a neutral gym, albeit in Jacksonville also makes me lean under since Florida won't be shooting at home rims with the standard home environment.

Thoughts?

[SkyBlues42]

(12-09-2011 12:59 AM)Jaeger62 Wrote:  Looking at the Florida game, does the 155pt total seem high? The spread of 26pts means if Florida scores 90 that leaves Rider needing 65 at least. Does rider have the horses to get much above their season average of 68pts against Florida?

The fact that this is at a neutral gym, albeit in Jacksonville also makes me lean under since Florida won't be shooting at home rims with the standard home environment.

Thoughts?

Only thing that concerns me about the under is the fact that Florida shoots (and makes) so many 3-pointers. They could easily go in there and drop 100-plus.

They played Stetson on a neutral court earlier this year. Final score 96-70. But, Stetson is better than Rider.

[SONBP2]

FLORIDA/RIDER UNDER 154.5. I jumped on this Under first thing this morning. Florida obviously has the ability to score 100+ points, but I don't see any motivation for Florida in this game. They are playing on a neutral court, I expect a lack of fan support, they have over a week break after this game, they are coming off a big overtime win against Az two days ago, and they are playing Rider. Further, where does Rider find any motivation? They have lost their last 4 and now get the pleasure of being a 26pt underdog to Florida. Two other factors also lean towards an Under play: (1) the strong possibility that both teams come out flat, and (2) will Florida have any legs left late in the second half to continue to shoot as well as they do from 3-point range after that overtime game two days ago. I expect a final score of 84-57, over a 10point cushion towards the under.

Idaho at Oregon State (-13): Love OSt in this match up. Idaho plays well at home, 3 of their 4 wins coming at home verse weak opponents. Their one road win came against terrible California-Davis. Oregon State is averaging 80 points per game and should be fired up to win their seventh game of the year and get the team off to their best start since 1986. Additionally, Oregon State's tempo should really hurt Idaho, they simply don't have the athletes to sustain a fast tempo game throughout. Further, Oregon State is also better defensively and should have their way with a terrible road team in Idaho. I look for a final score of 84-60.

Good Luck. (Brought home a winner last night with the under in the Princeton/UConn game even though Princeton tried running with them in the first 14 minutes and 40pts were scored with 12minutes left in the first half).

[TheSportsMarket]

Jumping on Wyoming, though got a bad #: Friday CBB: http://beatingthesportsmarket.blogspot.c...h-cbb.html

[cmpicks]

Purely an action play for me here (swamped with work, need something to follow/distract), but I just grabbed Florida/Rider 1st Half Over 74.5.

I believe Florida will play hard for at least a half and likely have better shot selection than the Arizona game (starting backcourt of Walker/Boynton went something like 3-of-16 from field in that game). Additionally, Erik Murphy (generally plays 4 but is a very solid outside shooter) will likely see more minutes in his 2nd game back from injury.

[Skating Tripods]

Someone pounded the Florida/Siena total late. Jumped from 154 to 157 in about 10 minutes.

I laid off tonight. Look for value tomorrow.

[cmpicks]

(12-09-2011 07:03 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  Someone pounded the Florida/Siena total late. Jumped from 154 to 157 in about 10 minutes.

I laid off tonight. Look for value tomorrow.

Interesting. I'll pretend that I played a part in that.

[cmpicks]

(12-09-2011 06:40 PM)cmpicks Wrote:  Purely an action play for me here (swamped with work, need something to follow/distract), but I just grabbed Florida/Rider 1st Half Over 74.5.

I believe Florida will play hard for at least a half and likely have better shot selection than the Arizona game (starting backcourt of Walker/Boynton went something like 3-of-16 from field in that game). Additionally, Erik Murphy (generally plays 4 but is a very solid outside shooter) will likely see more minutes in his 2nd game back from injury.

This is when I remind myself that "action play" should read "throwing money out the window." Oh well.

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Naturally the teams combined for an 89-point second half. Unreal.

[The Peoples Champ]

(12-09-2011 08:12 PM)cmpicks Wrote:  

(12-09-2011 06:40 PM)cmpicks Wrote:  Purely an action play for me here (swamped with work, need something to follow/distract), but I just grabbed Florida/Rider 1st Half Over 74.5.

I believe Florida will play hard for at least a half and likely have better shot selection than the Arizona game (starting backcourt of Walker/Boynton went something like 3-of-16 from field in that game). Additionally, Erik Murphy (generally plays 4 but is a very solid outside shooter) will likely see more minutes in his 2nd game back from injury.

This is when I remind myself that "action play" should read "throwing money out the window." Oh well.

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Naturally the teams combined for an 89-point second half. Unreal.

Yeah, when I checked the first half total at work I thought we'd be in good shape, but man, tough second half.

[Jaeger62]

(12-09-2011 04:39 PM)TheSportsMarket Wrote:  Jumping on Wyoming, though got a bad #: Friday CBB: http://beatingthesportsmarket.blogspot.c...h-cbb.html

I took the odds and took Wyoming straight up. Worked out nicely

[TheSportsMarket]

Nice work Jaeger.