FRIDAY 6/22 PICK AND WRITE UP JAYS

[chadnov]

Blue Jays @ Marlins
Blue Jays +115
Stats and Trends:
-Jays are 10-4 in Romero’s 14 starts this year
-Jays were 11-2 in his last 13 starts of 2011
-Overall 21-6 in his last 27 overall starts
-Jays are 9-1 in Romero’s last 10 starts vs a team with a losing record
-Jays are 4-1 in Romero’s last 5 interleague starts
-Romero 4-0 at night this year, 10-5 at night last year
-Romero 1st 64 innings this year37BB, last 23 inning only 5BB
-Romero with RISP 17-98 .195 BAA
-Romero with RISP 5-43 .125 BAA

-Marlins are 6-7 in sanchez 13 starts this year (4-7 last 11)
-Marlins are 1-4 in his last 5 home starts
-Sanchez has given up a homerun in 3 straight starts
-Sanchez in June 0-2 19IP 14ER 4HR 7BB 13K 6.63 ERA
-marlins are 3-13 in their last 16 vs AL EAST
-Marlins are 0-5 last 5 home games vs Lefty starter
-Marlins are 1-7 in Sanchez 8 starts during game 1 of series
-Marlins are 1-6 in Sanchez last 7 starts as a favorite
-Marlins are 2-12 last 14 overall
-Marlins are 4-13 in JUNE averaging 2.6 runs per game
-Marlins batting spots 6-7-8-9 are batting combined .196 for the year

BREAKDOWN
Where do I start, I love the Blue Jays for so many reason, lol...
First of all lets talk about Romero, He is the OBVIOUS ace of the staff. Baseball teams always have more confidence more swag when their ace is on mound. Its evident in the team record in his starts, 10-4 this year, and 21-6 in his last 27 overall.
Yes I believe I am very good at judging a mlb clubhouse’s attitude. I can tell you for sure Jays are more pumped to play when Romero is on the mound, especially as of late with their whole starting staff being decimated by injuries lately. Even more of a reason for the ace to step up! The ace’s job is to give a lot of quality starts, save the bullpen, win games, stop losing streaks if needed. The Ace will do his job tomorrow.
Especially in this situation facing a SLUMPING Marlins team. 0-5 last 5 home games vs lefties. Also Marlins 4-13 averaging only 2.6 runs per game. Also romero is used to facing tough american league lineups 1-9. This marlins lineup is not strong, its strongest hitters are slumping, and their 6-7-8-9 hitter hitting a combined .196 average, you wont find that in the AL. Also if Romero does get into any trouble he has one the best change-ups in the league to wiggle out of jams and is very good at pitching with RISP, while the marlins have been struggling to get the big hit.
Romero had some control problem early on and still as pitching good and getting wins, I have watched his last 4 starts at hit appears he has gotten the control issue under raps and looks great, and should have no problem with the marlins.
As Far as the blue jays sure there only 8-10 in June and 16-19 on road but they score runs. They have averaged 4.7 runs in June while going 8-10.
Sanchez is a great young pitcher but I think his arm is getting tired and will regress huge the next year and half. The kid is 28 years old, last 4 years he pitched 195 IP,195IP,86IP,51IP... After 2 consecutive 195 inning seasons he doesn’t look the same this year as he did his last 2 years. Throwing back to back 195 inning seasons after throwing only 100 innings combined the 2 previous years is very tough on a Pitcher.
Also the Marlins have Never seen Romero, seeing a tough lefty with a nasty change up for the 1st time is not what you want when you’re the slumping marlins. Sanchez has faced the blue jays, Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar are both 5-20 off him.. So yes Sanchez has not faced too many Jays, but its important for hitters to share info on pitcher and the jays will be able to see some notes of teammates that have faced him. Sanchez has given up a homer in 3 straight starts and Jays love the long ball, Bautista and Encarnacion are both hot and locked in (Encarnacion has homered in 3 straight games and htting .315 in June, and Bautista already has 10 homers in June, and 19/22 of his homers have been off right-handers), I think one or both go yard tomorrow in a 6-3 blue jays Victory.
So Book it, ship it, bet it, fade it or do nothing, Hope you guys enjoyed my thoughts, Cheers

[gynecologist]

thanks for the effort man. romero has been off form. your thoughts on that?

also marlins hit much better at home.

[chadnov]

(06-22-2012 02:07 AM)gynecologist Wrote:  thanks for the effort man. romero has been off form. your thoughts on that?

also marlins hit much better at home.

Jays are 5-0 in last 5 starts, so I dont agree he has been off form, i think he had controll issues earlier in year but fixed them...
And marlins are better at home...but their bullpen is tired and not good, and are their offense is really slumping, although they are good home team, they dont have a home field advantage like nba nfl, their home field barely affects line, IMO

[JayPrimetown]

I like the rationale here... haven't played much baseball of late, but I like the trends here towards the Jays. I'll throw a little paper on this one.