First overall QB starting week 1 ATS records

[TheHandicaper]

So, Grey Matter posted the other day on Twitter if there was any statistical question their followers wanted researched. With Andrew Luck coming into the league, I wanted to know ATS records for QB taken first overall starting from week one. They answered in great fashion. You can see the research here. Pretty interesting read.

[Beyond the Bets]

Good write-up. But I'll be betting the Bears Week 1.

[ChiefZilla]

So they're 15-27 straight up and 21-20 ATS? Seems about right. But that's still not much of a sample size.

What are y'alls thoughts on Luck and Indy this year? I think he'll be good, just not sure about the pieces around him yet. Could be a Sam Bradford situation where he's not given a true chance to succeed quite yet.

[SkyBlues42]

Sample is too small.

I agree with Chief, Luck could find himself in a situation much like Bradford. Great talent, but the supporting cast might not be good enough to make a huge difference.

[ChiefZilla]

Wait, I'm assuming this means No. 1 OVERALL draft picks? Not first-round draft picks? Otherwise Andy Dalton should be included from last year.

Taking all first-round picks who start from Week 1 might increase the sample size a bit.

[SkyBlues42]

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Why limit it to the first overall pick? Maybe just test out how QB's fared SU and ATS that were inserted into the starting role as a rookie.

[TheHandicaper]

(06-30-2012 01:08 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Why limit it to the first overall pick?

(06-30-2012 09:31 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  Luck could find himself in a situation much like Bradford. Great talent, but the supporting cast might not be good enough to make a huge difference.

You answered your own question. That's exactly why I asked for first overall picks, to see how just one piece looks in a team that is rebuilding completely.
I think the numbers on first round starters would be much diferent. Think Flacco in Baltimore; he was inserted into a great system where he had all chances to succed. I do agree, it'd be interesting to see the other part. You can shoot GMS a tweet and see if they can look it up. I am sure they'd be more than happy to do so.

[SkyBlues42]

I guess you could make the argument for Flacco and Sanchez, since both went into the playoffs in their first season, right? I actually think there's an article on this site that was written last year that covered rookie QB's. Time to browse, I'll post the link if I find it.

UPDATE: http://beyondthebets.com/2011/07/08/rook...y-in-2011/

Was done before the season, so the rookies from last year aren't included.

[ChiefZilla]

(07-01-2012 09:33 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  UPDATE: http://beyondthebets.com/2011/07/08/rook...y-in-2011/

Was done before the season, so the rookies from last year aren't included.

Wow, and I'm guessing guys like Newton and Dalton improved that record last season.