Fading Losing Streaks -- Time to Fade the Royals?

[ChiefZilla]

I know people on here always say to never chase losing streaks, because you'll usually end up losing 2 or 3 games before you win one.

But what about fading losing streaks? Has anyone ever looked into this?

Like, once a streak hits 5 for any team, you start fading them every game until they win again. Anyone think this would be profitable?

I ask because the Royals have now hit 5, and the "same old, same old" mentality has already set in. In KC, we've seen enough double-digit losing streaks in the past 10 years to know that a 5-gamer is nowhere NEAR their limit.

I know it's still early or whatever, but I'm in serious tilt mode with this stupid team.

[DOP]

although they have a great lineup, they still wont outhit a lot of AL teams.. You cant be a contender in the AL with Bruce Chen as your #1.. maybe in the NL.

Their bullpen, with Soria gone, is going to be taxed all season. They've already thrown 38 1/2 in 10 games - the highest rate in the AL and you had to replace your closer and Broxton is pushing 320 pounds at this point.

[SkyBlues42]

I tend to think that if you weren't on the train for the first 5 losses, then you've missed your chance. Let it play out. Plenty of other games to bet on. That's just a personal opinion.

But I'd also like to know if something like that was profitable. Probably wouldn't be too difficult to figure out.

[SkyBlues42]

Edit: At the same time.. Once they lose five games, they'll likely be back to the top of their rotation. Granted, the Royals don't really have an ace, but for other teams, how frequently do No. 1 starters lose consecutive starts during a (what would have to be) six-game losing streak?

[adutton6]

So far this season, the play is 0-1, Pittsburgh won their sixth after losing 5.

[ChiefZilla]

Maybe if I have time I'll look into this. Or maybe I should put it in that "stuff you want others to look up" thread.

My first instinct is that it wouldn't be profitable, mainly because teams that lose 6-10 games in a row are generally terrible. And if they're terrible, you're often going to be laying a lot of chalk by betting the opposite way, meaning you might have to win two games to make up for your eventual loss.

[Skating Tripods]

It's really hard to get swept when you score 19 runs in 3 games.

I don't think I'd fade the Royals. There were three common threads with them in the Indians series. 1. They can hit; 2. Their bullpen is pretty good (Broxton excepted thus far); 3. They don't quit.

Young teams don't quit. They have a lot of good, young talent that is leading by example.

Young teams are inconsistent and streaky. For every 5+ game losing streak the Royals have, they'll match it by rattling off 3 or 4 in a row from time to time.

Their starting pitching is atrocious, but on any given night, a MLB starter is capable of throwing 7 innings of 1-run ball. They went almost pitch-for-pitch with Verlander last night.

Personally, I think they rock Smyly tonight and break the streak. Chen clearly sucks against the Tigers, but he's catching them at a good time.

Fat Miggy is 0-for his last-19. Prince has 1 XBH in his last 9 games. Peralta's just 2-for-18 against Chen lifetime.

The Tigers issue is middle relief. Smyly probably won't get past the 6th tonight.

[ChiefZilla]

Well, the reverse jinx didn't work.

3-1 Tigers. Six L's in a row for the Royals. AND I didn't even bet Detroit. What a joke.

[Skating Tripods]

I played the Royals. Chen, despite the bad numbers against DET, actually hasn't been bad over the last three years.

Royals just didn't string hits together. 1 run on 9 hits is pretty sad.

[ChiefZilla]

One run in 9 hits is very familiar.

This team will be fine. More talent than in previous seasons. But goodness, it sucks when it gets this bad this early.

[ChiefZilla]

Up to a 7-game skid. Now 0-4 in one-run games.

Looks like I should've been fading.

[gynecologist]

Royals will starting winning again, I have no doubt about it. Bats will come around and they really havent had anything go their way. Hosmer is a top class talent and when he comes around that lineup will be deadly. BP other than Broxton has been very good actually.

[ChiefZilla]

(04-19-2012 10:01 PM)gynecologist Wrote:  Royals will starting winning again, I have no doubt about it. Bats will come around and they really havent had anything go their way. Hosmer is a top class talent and when he comes around that lineup will be deadly. BP other than Broxton has been very good actually.

You guys are really killing my negativity and pessimism I'm trying to get going in this thread.

[LineProjector]

Chief, I was at Kauffman on Sunday for game 3 against Cleveland. I think most Royal fans share your negativity. We got pretty good sets for $5 on stubhub. It's sad that parking was the same price we paid for 2 tickets.

Seems like the Royal faithful have given up on the season

[BetThemDogs]

A comment about streaks. Although, I never know when to climb aboard (4 games? 5 games?) In MLB I don't think a streak comes to an end with one win/loss. KC has lost 7 straight. I think they make it 8 tonight vs Drabek. When they do win one, I bet against them the next game. I don't consider a streak over until they win/ lose 2 games. After all, how often in baseball do we hear that team X has won/lost 12 out of last 13, for example. If KC loses tonight for #8, they may very well win one, and then lose 7 more in a row. Just my penny-and-a-half's worth.

[BetThemDogs]

KC up to 8 losses now. I'm on Tor again today.

But, what to do with Texas? I've been on them, and they got win #8 in a row this morning. Do we keep playing the streak? Not only would you be betting against Verlander ( who has great lifetime vs Texas), but you'd be betting on the dreaded double-header sweep. Although, I seem to remember a blog here last year showing that the conventional thinking that you're going to get a split in DHs was proven wrong.

As they say in Spain-- to hell with it. I'm riding Texas tonight.

[Beyond the Bets]

The streak hits 10.

Who wants to keep going? Could this thing hit 20?

[ChiefZilla]

Someone make it stop!

[Skating Tripods]

It will. They'll take at least one from the Indians this week.

[SkyBlues42]

Yeah, but the better question is when will their first HOME win come. That's embarrassing.