Fade .... Murray State?

[ChiefZilla]

Something I've been tracking for a little while but unfortunately haven't been betting. Last night's 8-point win as 14.5-point favorites was just the latest. Murray State is 0-5-1 against the spread over about the past month.

These spreads are consistently in the 12-18 range, but they're just not covering. Is the public perception of Murray State being a Top 10 team driving these lines up a point or two too much? Or is this just coincidence and they're due for a regression at some point during the final month of the season?

[SkyBlues42]

(02-03-2012 08:51 AM)ChiefZilla Wrote:  Something I've been tracking for a little while but unfortunately haven't been betting. Last night's 8-point win as 14.5-point favorites was just the latest. Murray State is 0-5-1 against the spread over about the past month.

These spreads are consistently in the 12-18 range, but they're just not covering. Is the public perception of Murray State being a Top 10 team driving these lines up a point or two too much? Or is this just coincidence and they're due for a regression at some point during the final month of the season?

I think the general public sees the ranking next to Murray State (and has no idea who they are) and just bets them, but I do think oddsmakers will start open with lower numbers.

Murray State has an unfavorable schedule the rest of the way. I'd have to imagine most of the spreads won't touch double digits, but I could be wrong.

[The Peoples Champ]

I think Skyblues is spot on, in that I think oddsmakers are going to adjust for Murray State knowing the smart guys will be looking to play them. May be best to hold off until near tip with these guys hoping the public sends the line up due to the ranking.