Euro 2012 Semifinals

[SkyBlues42]

Does the news that Bastian Schweinsteiger might miss Germany's match against Italy change your perspective on the outcome?

I'm assuming most feel that the Germans will advance, but losing a central player like Schweinsteiger could be costly, especially with Pirlo playing so well for Italy.

[JayPrimetown]

These games at this stage in the tournament have the potential to be very tight. I like both favorites (Germany and Spain) to advance... however, I'd be more tempted to play Spain ML than Germany ML. Italy are very tough to beat over the course of a 90 minute game

Again be weary of ML, PK, and to advance props... make sure you know what you're playing before you lock in your plays.

[SkyBlues42]

So far, I've seen two posts on the semifinal matchup between Spain/Portugal in this forum. One suggested that they might make a play on Portugal to win in 90 (stoppage) and Portugal to advance. The other suggested that a play on Portugal not to score would be a good play.

Anyone else have any opinions on this game, or care to elaborate?

Personally, I think Spain takes care of Portugal in regulation, but would be more inclined to just pick them to advance and not risk the 0-0 full-time draw.

[arzoman]

Sky, there's no way I take Portugal to win in regulation AND to advance. I will take one or the other, and most likely Portugal to advance. Portugal just looks like a capable team to me. I know they play a different offensive style than Spain plays (does anyone play like Spain?), but they seem to be clicking. They played Germany very close in the first game, and looked pretty darn good the rest of the tourney. They've put up 70 shots vs. Spain's 67 shots. I just think they might pull it out.

With that being said, I've done pretty poorly so far on Euro, so I'm not pretending to know what I'm talking about. I'm far from decided on Portugal. I just kind of like the value at this point.

[SkyBlues42]

True. I think Portugal at +170 to advance is a better play than Portugal to win in regulation. Either could happen, but it might not be as painful to watch, knowing you can still win your bet in extra time or PK's.

Having said that, I still like Spain to advance, but I do think that Portugal scores in regulation. They can certainly put pressure on the Spanish back line with counter attacks, especially with the speed they have on the outside. It'll be tough to keep Ronaldo from setting up at least a few chances.

I think 1-1, 2-1 are possibilities, with Spain advancing.

Also wouldn't be opposed to seeing another match end in PK's. While they can sometimes be a toss-up, they are still quite entertaining to watch.

[arzoman]

I find this kind of interesting....

Total goals scored by Portugal-
Over .5 -150

Total goals scored by Spain-
Under 1.5 -170

So the odds makers seem to think 1-1 is the most probable outcome? Am I misinterpreting this?

[SkyBlues42]

Maybe.. but 5Dimes also has these props, which suggest that 1-0 Spain is the most likely outcome (I think).

Spain 1, Portugal 0 -- +454
Spain 1, Portugal 1 -- +560

[JayPrimetown]

These knockout rounds are becoming incredibly predictable. Play not to lose, better team wins in penalties. : )-

[SkyBlues42]

At least the media has something big to talk about now. It blows my mind that Cristiano Ronaldo was picked 5th (even if it was his decision).

[SkyBlues42]

Germany, Italy.. who ya got?

[Yontsey]

I'm a Germany lean.

[ChiefZilla]

I sorta liked the over 2. Should be a lot more of an open flow than what we've seen the past few matches, right?

[SkyBlues42]

(06-28-2012 09:53 AM)Yontsey Wrote:  I'm a Germany lean.

That's the way I'm leaning, too. Think this tournament ends up just as everyone predicted, except for the Netherlands supporters (like myself).

I still wouldn't mind seeing Italy reach the finals, though. Seem to have some value, considering they are more than 2-to-1 to advance and have the defense that can get them to extra time and possibly penalties.

[the dude]

I like where you're heading there Sky. I'm on both teams to score +105.

I think both teams are going to go for it.

Italian coach Prandelli, “We cannot sit deep, Germany will press us high up the pitch, and we are ready for this."

German coach Low, “We have to think of a way to play better than Italy in midfield and dictate the tempo of the match. We will not let Italy show us how to play football. It’s a confidence thing. We have to be cheeky, we have to be strong and brave.”

Germany will control the bulk of the possession. They are second best in the tournament, obviously behind those ball controlling freaks, Spain. The Germans, though, sometimes press a little too much and if they do, will be vulnerable to the counter as Italy will most likely be playing with a 5 man midfield today. Pirlo is also great with his diagonal balls and should be able to find Balotelli over top of the German defense. They tried this many times against England, but were just off. As for the Germans, they'll try to press the game down the flanks with their speed with Reus and Podolski and look to play in the cross to Klose who is amazing using his head to score (10 of his 17 goals in major tournaments have come via headers).

The most intriguing matchup will be Pirlo vs Ozil. We saw what Pirlo did to England and I'm sure Germany will not want to see him dictate the game against them. If Ozil chooses to play off him like Rooney did, we'll see them both create plenty of chances.

A stat that looks good for this bet: Germany have only kept just four clean sheets in their last 19 matches at the UEFA European Championship. They have also scored at least one goal in each of their last 20 games.

I'm predicting a 2-1 win for Germany. Should be a much better game than semi-final #1.

[the dude]

The Final lines are also out too, which are interesting to look at.

Spain pk +103
Germany pk -109

Spain -0.5 +104
Italy +0.5 -110

I think I'd go Spain -0.5 vs Italy and Germany pk.

[louiemdj]

I don't know shit about Soccer betting or soccer in general for that matter. I have a question. If I bet Germany -0.5 and it ends 0-0 and someone wins in PK's then my bet loses, right?

[SkyBlues42]

Correct. If you bet Germany -0.5, you're betting that they win by a goal in the first 90 minutes (including stoppage).

[the dude]

(06-28-2012 11:05 AM)louiemdj Wrote:  I don't know shit about Soccer betting or soccer in general for that matter. I have a question. If I bet Germany -0.5 and it ends 0-0 and someone wins in PK's then my bet loses, right?

That's right.

But, if you bet Italy +0.5 and it ends 0-0 in the 90 min, you win.

Betting:

-0.5 : Must win in 90 min.
pk: Must win in 90 min. Draw is a push.
Germany to advance: Germany can win in 90 min, extra time or penalties.
+0.5: Win or draw in 90 min. Extra time or penalties don't factor.

You can get great odds by betting Germany or Italy to win in penalties if you think it will go that way. Germany +1030, Italy +1105

[louiemdj]

I like Italy +0.5, beginners luck?

[louiemdj]

(06-28-2012 11:37 AM)louiemdj Wrote:  I like Italy +0.5, beginners luck?

First soccer match I have ever followed. Hold PLZ!