Euro 2012 Betting Thread

[jimmysingh9]

I know there is some smaller threads and a contest thread, but we could use this for discussion on futures and plays.

I was looking at some futures at 5dimes and there are ways you can make some more value out of your bets than the ordinary ways.


for example, if you like Russia to win the group you could bet this

Euro 2012 Soccer Group A Winner : Russia +166
Risking $150.00 To Win $249.00

but you could also do this bet instead which is essentially the same

Euro 2012 Soccer Group A Straight Forecast : 1st: Russia, 2nd: Poland +500
Risking $50.00 To Win $250.00
Euro 2012 Soccer Group A Straight Forecast : 1st: Poland, 2nd: Russia +625
Risking $50.00 To Win $312.50
Euro 2012 Soccer Group A Straight Forecast : 1st: Russia, 2nd: Greece +725
Risking $50.00 To Win $362.50


so worst case scenario, the lowest paying $50 dollar bet, warrants you 1 dollar more than just playing Russia straight up, however there is chances to get more money as shown.


I think there could also be some value in some golden boot(most goals). First thing is you need to figure out who will probably make the finals or semis at the least. This will give you the added value of more games. Next you need to see out of those teams, what teams have the most chance to score more goals, what teams are they playing against where the flow will be more open. In Euro 2012, you will get alot of underdogs sitting back in the early group stage matches praying not to concede a goal. Where as, you may get a team that is more open and get somewhat of shootout. Once you have narrowed some of those down, you need to look at team lineups. What players are the most likely to start and play every minute without being substituted? You could have a squad like Spain, where you may get alot of goals, but you could also have strikers being switched because of depth or rotation during the 3rd game of the group stage if everything is locked up. It would be better to go with another team that is close to being equal in the first two assumptions and that team relying on a certain striker to produce for them, therefor playing more minutes.


I also havent done the research of grouping out different scenarios and paths for all teams. I will add to this once I have mapped out most of the scenarios.


Also dont be afraid to play the under. I really believe you will have teams early be ok with a draw, especially some of the lesser teams, because a loss is the first two games could kill them where a draw keeps them alive.

Let's use Italy as an example. They play Spain right off the bat. This is their toughest game by far. They next play Croatia and lastly Ireland.

Italy knows Ireland will be their easiest game and if they can get a point out their Spain game, they will assume that is a better result than what Croatia and Ireland can get against Spain, giving them an advantage. So Italy's mindset early could be to play defensively and hope for a counter attack goal and if that goal doesn't come by the 70th minute, I can tell you Italy will be more than satsified with the draw and even in Spain's mind knowing they have easier opponents coming up, they don't want to risk losing a point as well.

The Euro mentality isn't to go for it all, it is to be safer than sorry because a bad goal in an early game could end their chances quickly.


I'll have more to as the tourney nears.

[SkyBlues42]

I like the idea. For those that are interested.. Russia takes on Italy today. As a side note... Russia looks like a good play today. Italy hasn't played much this year and their first game is going to be against Spain. They'll need to be fully rested (and healthy) if they hope to be competitive against them. So I'm not sure if they'll go all out and risk an injury. To me, the situation is similar to the one Germany was in yesterday. Should have won the game 4-5 to 0, but they played slightly reserved.

[JetsMetsRangers]

Hmm, interesting analysis Sky. You know who I like today? Ukraine at Austria. Austria has won just 2 of their last 6 and Ukraine has won 5 of their last 6 while tuning up for their hosting of the Euro. They are +110 to win. I think they will.

[SkyBlues42]

Ukraine is good. The game that stands out to me is the one where they tied Germany 3-3. Shows they can score against a solid defense. They also beat Austria 2-1 last time they met. I want to say over 2.5 goals would be the best bet in that game. But also wouldn't pass up the +110, since you're actually getting the better team at plus-money.

[jimmysingh9]

friendlies are a dangerous creature to be playing around with. tread carefully guys.

[JetsMetsRangers]

And Austria scores in the first few minutes, 1-0 already. Ugh

[JetsMetsRangers]

Ukraine is dominating this game possession wise. Hopefully they score two goals in the 2nd.

[adutton6]

Great discussion. I've actually learned more about soccer betting in this thread than I have ever known.

Euros & Olympics will be a great summer bridge until football. I don't have much to add except I look forward to the next writ-up.

[SkyBlues42]

Over 2.5 was definitely a lock. At least that played out.

Edit: As I type that, Ukraine scores, too.

[JetsMetsRangers]

Only a matter of time before Ukraine scores I think..

[JetsMetsRangers]

Austria scores, 3-2. Ukraine's defense looks shitty.

[bracks]

There are 3 teams I will be play overs on. Sweden, Holland &!Ukraine. As of Wed, Sweden games have gone over 2.5 in 10/L11. Holland has no defense, but might score the most goals. Ukraine is a battered up team, mostly in the back and midfield. They do have enough talent to always get 1 goal though.

Russia is a huge play for me to win the group. I think it is a good idea to jump on that soon. Will probably be closer to -even by Friday.

[JetsMetsRangers]

Yeah they have no goalie at all. All gone from suspensions and injuries. After watching the Austria game, my opinion of Ukraine has worsened considerably. They might steal a win cause of home field but they kind of stink. Sweden is the sleeper in Group D.

bracks nice insights on the overs there. I love learning stuff like that.

[jimmysingh9]

I am expecting Russian odds to go down after beating Italy 3-0

[SkyBlues42]

Russia is +140 at TheGreek today. Not sure if that's a big jump. I'm assuming you saw Russia at +166 at Pinnacle?

[JayPrimetown]

Already locked in a few plays for Euro 2012:

To win - Germany +325 - Last 3 major competitions. Two world cup semifinals appearances. 1 Euro Final. Location will be critical and I think the Poland / Ukraine hosting really plays into that. Germany has quality across the field. I think Spain is a little off at the moment... sure they are capable, but they are still looking for that combo up top.

Russia to beat Czech Republic +115. Russia to win Group A +168 - Russia is the most undervalued team in this tournament. They are riding a 7 match unbeaten streak which includes a 3-0 win in Italy. Goalkeeping is outstanding with Afinkeev. Have quality across the field... and are the best team in this group which alose includes Czech Republic, Greece, and Poland.

Germany to beat Portugal -106 - Low odds on my tournament favor to win their opening match. Again, location is important as I fully expect Germany to have homefield advantage in many of their games due to location, travel, etc.

Spain to beat Italy -130 - Italy are rusty coming off a 3-0 loss to Russia. The Italians are set to be the most disappointing team in Euro 2012. Spain has the much better squad and should be able to garner a full 3 points.

[jimmysingh9]

I liked the Russia/Spain bets for sure. good luck on that. I feel the Portuguese get a little undervalued now just because of how they have dissapointed in the past, they still have quality all over the pitch and its just putting it together. Germany is definately very talented and more of a machine than Portugal. Just something gets me off that game.

[JetsMetsRangers]

(06-04-2012 10:27 AM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  Already locked in a few plays for Euro 2012:

To win - Germany +325 - Last 3 major competitions. Two world cup semifinals appearances. 1 Euro Final. Location will be critical and I think the Poland / Ukraine hosting really plays into that. Germany has quality across the field. I think Spain is a little off at the moment... sure they are capable, but they are still looking for that combo up top.

Russia to beat Czech Republic +115. Russia to win Group A +168 - Russia is the most undervalued team in this tournament. They are riding a 7 match unbeaten streak which includes a 3-0 win in Italy. Goalkeeping is outstanding with Afinkeev. Have quality across the field... and are the best team in this group which alose includes Czech Republic, Greece, and Poland.

Germany to beat Portugal -106 - Low odds on my tournament favor to win their opening match. Again, location is important as I fully expect Germany to have homefield advantage in many of their games due to location, travel, etc.

Spain to beat Italy -130 - Italy are rusty coming off a 3-0 loss to Russia. The Italians are set to be the most disappointing team in Euro 2012. Spain has the much better squad and should be able to garner a full 3 points.

Mine are Germany -125 to beat Portugal. Do you think it's still worth betting Germany at those odds?

[seneca15krookk]

(06-04-2012 10:27 AM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  Already locked in a few plays for Euro 2012:

To win - Germany +325 - Last 3 major competitions. Two world cup semifinals appearances. 1 Euro Final. Location will be critical and I think the Poland / Ukraine hosting really plays into that. Germany has quality across the field. I think Spain is a little off at the moment... sure they are capable, but they are still looking for that combo up top.

Russia to beat Czech Republic +115. Russia to win Group A +168 - Russia is the most undervalued team in this tournament. They are riding a 7 match unbeaten streak which includes a 3-0 win in Italy. Goalkeeping is outstanding with Afinkeev. Have quality across the field... and are the best team in this group which alose includes Czech Republic, Greece, and Poland.

Germany to beat Portugal -106 - Low odds on my tournament favor to win their opening match. Again, location is important as I fully expect Germany to have homefield advantage in many of their games due to location, travel, etc.

Spain to beat Italy -130 - Italy are rusty coming off a 3-0 loss to Russia. The Italians are set to be the most disappointing team in Euro 2012. Spain has the much better squad and should be able to garner a full 3 points.

i like these plays. I am playing each one also for similar reasons

[JayPrimetown]

Also just played Greece - Poland Under 2. Expecting a low scoring, defensive game. Greece will play for a scoreless draw... perhaps Poland sneaks one in. Tough to imagine 3 goals in this one.