EURO 2012

[DOP]

Hopefully some of the soccer guys watched the draw. In my opinion, this tournament is more competitve than the World Cup. Here is a recap

Group A
*Poland
Czech Republic
*Greece
Russia

Notes: The tournament opens with Poland vs. Greece - kill me! Before the draw, I would have said that Poland would have little chance to advance but now they could be considered the favorites. I would consider this group to be one of the weakest in tournament history.

Group B
*Netherlands
Denmark
*Germany
Portugal

Notes: Followed by the Group of Death. Denmark was my sleeper. Not anymore and its a shame that C. Ronaldo - although I hate him he is great TV - will likely be eliminated early. What an amazing group. I will watch every game.

Group C
*Spain
Italy
Ireland
*Croatia

Notes: I think the fairest group. Spain was always going to advance and they'll have no problem. Ireland is the biggest dog but has a good track record in major tournaments. The clear decisive match should be Italy/Croatia.

Group D
*Ukraine
France
*England
Sweden

Notes: The perfect group for England to let everyone down with. France are playing great and I never like betting against Scandanivan teams. With homefield advantage, Ukraine could be a threat. I think this group is the toughest to predict.

* my prediction to advance. subject to change!

what did you guys think?

[JayPrimetown]

Very interesting groups... Group A is a joke and I agree with you that Poland could indeed be the favorites there. They have played pretty well since the World Cup ended and I think are a bit underrated.

I'll skip Group B as I think you've nailed it. Denmark was a darkhorse, but nowhere to hide in that grouping.

Tough to bet against Italy advancing from Group C. They always seem to find a way.

Group D is difficult to predict as I see any of the 4 countries with a possibility of advancing. England and France have a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde complex. Tough to know which will show up.

[mount187]

I would favor France to move on over England, only because England is infamous for being knocked out early in tournaments. People think they are better than they are, because of the popularity of the BPL, but their national team players almost always under-perform to expectations. The book Soccernomics lays out why.

I'm going to try to find the conclusion they made sometime, but basically England is too separated from the rest of Europe, so new tactics and formation changes don't make their way to the national team as quickly. In the other European countries, there is a really good network for exchanging that information, so they adapt new forms of thinking faster.

The book also outlines how England's players are mostly idiots, literally. Not to belittle anyone reading this, but the national team rarely has any players on it with any education at all. Most of the players come from lower-class families that never valued education, so they just played sports and ignored their studies. There is also a biased against smarter players, because the national team is more of a clique of uneducated players. Again, I'm not trying to put anyone down, I'm just relaying the conclusions made from the book.

The book also goes on to talk about the key statistics of a country that make their team successful, and they're something like: # of people that live in the country, GDP, and # of years the country has played soccer. Each of those factors was worth some percentage of goals difference per game on average (like, teams with a GDP in the top 10% scored 0.25 goals per game more than other countries or something). There was also an automatic, 0.50 goals per game for teams playing in their home country. International home-field advantage was huge.

Sorry for the rambling; probably more information than was necessary here, but got going and couldn't find a good stopping point.

:)

[Edit] I actually got the factors correct (on accident), but had them in the wrong order: most important was home field advantage, second was national income, third was population, and fourth was experience.

[JayPrimetown]

Mount to be fair, France has had their struggles early in tournaments as well having been eliminated from the '02 and '10 World Cups prior to the knockout rounds.

[mount187]

(12-02-2011 01:23 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  Mount to be fair, France has had their struggles early in tournaments as well having been eliminated from the '02 and '10 World Cups prior to the knockout rounds.

I wasn't supporting France as a clear favorite. I was just relaying information from the book. Their conclusion was that people think England under-perform, but after their research was done, they concluded that England usually performed right where they should, and that they just weren't as good as other countries.

I haven't looked at squads, recent performances, or anything. I was just making a broad observation.

[Beyond the Bets]

Will have a post on Euro 2012 later today.

[JayPrimetown]

(12-02-2011 01:26 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Will have a post on Euro 2012 later today.

Somebody is starting to like soccer

[mount187]

(12-02-2011 02:38 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  

(12-02-2011 01:26 PM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Will have a post on Euro 2012 later today.

Somebody [likes money and needs more smart soccer bettors on the forum].

Fixed that for you.

[@World_Wide_Wob]

Gosh, that Group B is the ultimate Group of Death.

Is it just me, or does Portugal always end up in these?

[DOP]

(12-02-2011 02:51 PM)@World_Wide_Wob Wrote:  Is it just me, or does Portugal always end up in these?

Usually because Portugal is the best team not in the drawing pot with the top teams. It did happen to them in the World Cup - Brazil, N Korea and Ivory Coast - was a tough group.

plus, the world hates Cristiano.

[the dude]

It was a great moment when Group A was finalized and the room (presumably those from all the teams in the Group) applauded and cheered. It has to be considered one of the easiest Groups ever in the tournament.

Germany is my pick to win. Perfect mix of youth and experience. Great run in the World Cup. Excellent qualifying campaign. And, each time they've lost in the final, they came back to win the following tournament.

[mount187]

I'm looking for futures to hedge with, and it looks like there are some decent options. Remember, the field is only eight teams when the teams get out of the group stages, so you only have to win/hedge three games. If you can get a team like Italy 14/1 to win the whole thing, and they advance, you can do something small there. Portugal is also a heavy dog to win the tournament, because of their group. They may not make it out, but if you're looking to get good odds, it's worth looking into. Again, I'm more talking theory at this point, rather than backing specific teams.

[DOP]

Also, remember that group A will play group B in the quarterfinals. A1 v B2 and A2 v B1.

The two teams advancing from Group B will likely be solid favorites in the knockout round.

Also, the winner of group B avoids the winner of group C (likely Spain) until the finals.

[SkyBlues42]

(12-02-2011 03:23 PM)mount187 Wrote:  I'm looking for futures to hedge with, and it looks like there are some decent options. Remember, the field is only eight teams when the teams get out of the group stages, so you only have to win/hedge three games. If you can get a team like Italy 14/1 to win the whole thing, and they advance, you can do something small there. Portugal is also a heavy dog to win the tournament, because of their group. They may not make it out, but if you're looking to get good odds, it's worth looking into. Again, I'm more talking theory at this point, rather than backing specific teams.

I love this idea. I did it with college basketball. I have Xavier and Cal to win the NCAA tournament. Went to get Xavier when they were above 100-to-1, but by the time I placed the bet, it fell a lot (still took it). I figure Xavier is a lock for the tournament and definitely has the potential to reach the Sweet 16. Cal is in the same boat. Could win the Pac-12 with the way UCLA and Arizona are playing right now.

Since this is a soccer thread ....

You can get Russia at close to 20-to-1 to win the entire thing. Which is pretty good odds for a team playing in Group A (and the likely winner of Group A).

I also like Croatia at 40-to-1. Since I think they can sneak out of Group C, past Italy.