EPL Weekend Weekend of Dec 3-4 Discussion

[JayPrimetown]

As I said last weekend, I would be providing a weekly preview of each match. And here we go...

Chelsea (5) @ Newcastle (4) - In what could be the biggest match of the weekend, struggling Chelsea travel to St. James Park to take one of the strongest defensive sides in the league in Newcastle. The Magpies have conceded just 5 goals in their 6 home games this year compiling a record of 4 wins and 2 draws. Chelsea are 3-1-2 on the road scoring 9 goals and allowing just 6. Newcastle can be had +.5 a goal at -123. Newcastle have only lost once all season and it's tough to imagine them losing this week.

Swansea (13) @ Blackburn (20) - This is an important time for Blackburn as they begin a set of 4 games against other non-title contenders. Blackburn will return goalkeeper Paul Robinson and striker Yakubu to the lineup. Rovers will also return three defenders to the lineup after they all sat out Blackburn's Carling Cup loss at midweek. Swansea have had their own problems of late and are in the midst of a goal drought having not scored in their 3 straight games. Danny Graham, the team's top scorer, remains out with an injury. Blackburn have won once at home all season, while Norwich have yet to win on the road this year. Blackburn can be had to win at +110 while under 2.5 goals has value in this match at -117.

Norwich (10) @ Manchester City (1) - Man City hopes to return to their winning ways against Norwich. Mario Balotelli returns after serving his 1 match ban during the Carling Cup victory midweek. Norwich could return American defender Zak Whitbread from injury this week, but it won't help much given City's success in league play. City are two goal favorites and deservedly so. Norwich have allowed 11 goals in 6 road games and I expect that to continue. Man City can be had at -2 goals for -105.

West Bromwich Albion (14) at Queens Park Rangers (11) - QPR does return Joey Barton from his one match ban, but may be without key winger Shaun Wright-Phillips. QPR have not been stellar at home having registered just 6 points from their 6 home matches. While, West Brom have earned as many road points as Arsenal has this year (7). Both teams have the exact same record over their last 5 games... tough match to cap. This appears to be a stalemate and if you have to play it the draw is your best bet at +225.

Bolton Wanderers (18) @ Tottenham Hotspurs (3) - Red hot Tottenham host Bolton as they hope to continue their push to the top of the Premiership. With United's draw last weekend, Tottenham sit only 2 points behind the English powerhouse. Tottenham have 8 wins and 2 draws in their last 10 league games. Van der Vaart will be available this week after sitting out last week's win. Jermaine Defoe scored last week and Adebayor has been a fixture in Martin Redknapp's side. Bolton are allowing 2 goals a game on the road, while Tottenham are scoring 2.5 goals a game at home. The spread (-1.5) and total goals (3) are set just about right.

Arsenal (7) at Wigan (19) - Arsenal hope to go for a third straight victory as they travel to Wigan. The Gunners are hoping to improve on their recent record which has seen them register just 1 point at Wigan over the past 2 years (1 draw and 1 defeat). Expect a high scoring match as Arsenal's 6 road games have yielded a whopping 31 goals. While Wigan's 6 home matches have seen a combined 19 goals scored. Arsenal -1 favorites in this match which seems a bit steep, while the over 2.5 / 3 line is at -115.

Manchester United (2) at Aston Villa (8) - Here's a stat that says it all... Aston Villa have won just 1 of their last 31 meetings against Manchester United in the Premiership. However, the last 3 meetings at Villa Park have ended in draws. Villa do return Barry Bannan and Jermaine Jenas to their midfield as each was unable to go in last week's scoreless draw with Swansea. Meanwhile, United have been sound defensively having just allowed 1 goal in their since their 6-1 loss to Man City. United have won 3 of their last 4 games by a 1-0 scoreline. United have allowed only 3 goals in their 6 road games, while Villa have allowed 6 goals in their 6 home matches. Under 2.5 goals is available at -107.

[RyanB]

I havent followed the EPL in probably 10 years but wanted to say I appreciate the time you took to research and write all that up.

gl!

[mount187]

I'm a big fan of Swansea. I'm not sure how banged up they are (can't research until tonight), but if they have a good price, I'll be playing them. They control possession really well, and have been close to beating some bigger clubs. Blackburn is a train-wreck right now.

[JayPrimetown]

(12-02-2011 02:20 PM)mount187 Wrote:  I'm a big fan of Swansea. I'm not sure how banged up they are (can't research until tonight), but if they have a good price, I'll be playing them. They control possession really well, and have been close to beating some bigger clubs. Blackburn is a train-wreck right now.

Blackburn are returning some players and Swansea has been unable to score in recent weeks. I think the under is the best play here as Blackburn haven't been good and Swansea's scoring woes.

I know Swansea have a possession feel to them, but they aren't playing at the same level as they had been 6-8 weeks ago.

[mount187]

(12-02-2011 02:33 PM)JayPrimetown Wrote:  

(12-02-2011 02:20 PM)mount187 Wrote:  I'm a big fan of Swansea. I'm not sure how banged up they are (can't research until tonight), but if they have a good price, I'll be playing them. They control possession really well, and have been close to beating some bigger clubs. Blackburn is a train-wreck right now.

Blackburn are returning some players and Swansea has been unable to score in recent weeks. I think the under is the best play here as Blackburn haven't been good and Swansea's scoring woes.

I know Swansea have a possession feel to them, but they aren't playing at the same level as they had been 6-8 weeks ago.

I see your point about Swans, but their last three scoreless games have been against L'pool (0-0), United (1-0), and Villa (0-0). All three of those teams are much better than Blackburn. Before that they had scored 12 goals in six games. I don't think it's a lock, but I think there's value at more than 2:1.

I like your analysis on the games though. Definitely good thoughts, and as I always tell people, I've been wrong once or twice about these things.

:)

[JayPrimetown]

Monday Game

Liverpool (7) @ Fulham (16): Aside from a 6 goal outburst against QPR, Fulham have scored just 9 goals in 12 games. Fulham will return Clint Dempsey and Bryan Ruiz to the lineup which should make them a bit more dangerous. On the otherside, Liverpool took a damaging hit to their campaign with midfielder Lucas sidelined for the next 6 months. He's been of their best players this season and with Steven Gerrard still sidelined, Liverpool are a bit thin in midfield. The Reds have only scored 17 goals in 12 games... ranking them 10th in the Premiership in goals scored. This has the makings of a low scoring game and even at -133, I like Under 2.5 goals.

[mount187]

Yakubu getting the sombrero against Swans was so disappointing. Swansea finally puts up two goals, but gives up four and was never really close.