EPL Weekend Discussion

[JayPrimetown]

I know there are some soccer fans on these boards. Soccer is my favorite sport and I dabble in the different leagues, specifically MLS, EPL, and Brazil's Serie A as well as the international competitions.

Here's a quick preview of each EPL game this weekend and their position in league (1 being at the top standings while 20 is at the bottom):

Blackburn (19) at Stoke (14): Stoke is one of their worst streaks in sometime. Having gone 4 straight games in the league in defeat. Blackburn are winless on the road in 6 games having earned a measly 2 points away from home. Stoke has conceded 14 goals in their last 4 games, while in Blackburn's 6 road games a combined 24 goals have been scored.

Everton (16) at Bolton (18): A battle between teams on mixed form. Both teams have earned 2 wins in their last 5 games. Everton is a defensive minded team led by standout American goalkeeper Tim Howard. Everton has allowed only 6 goals in 6 games away from home, but have only scored 3. Meanwhile, it has been a bit of a goal bonanza at Bolton with 26 goals combined goals in 6 games at Bolton. Neither side is very good and there is no real trend to see where this one goes.

Wolves (17) at Chelsea (5): Chelsea manager Andre Villas Boas is on the hot seat as the Blues are on the verge of missing the Champions League Round of 16 after allowing a last minute goal in a loss to German side Bayer Leverkusen. Domestically, their problems have continued with back to back losses at home. Defense has been the problem for Chelsea in recent weeks with several errors in their defense allowing soft goals. The Blues return Ashley Cole who missed the midweek match... only player missing is midfield stalwart Michael Essien. Wolves have scored upsets before having beaten Chelsea at home last year, but winning on the road is never easy in the EPL. Wolves have allowed 10 goals in 6 games away from home. Chelsea have scored 16 goals at home this season in 6 games. With Chelsea's leaky defense, I'd expect some fireworks in this one.

Newcastle (4) at Man United (2): The marquee fixture of the weekend pits the surprise team of the season traveling to Old Trafford to face the perennial title contenders. Newcastle lost for the 1st time this season at league leaders Man City last week. This week is the second leg of their team gauntlet against England's powerhouses (Newcastle face Chelsea next week). Since United's beating to City a month ago, United have gone 3 straight league games without conceding a goal. Newcastle have gone winless in their 17 games at Old Trafford since the Premiership was founded. Of those 17 games, United has won 11, while 6 have been draws. United have a bit of good news in that star player Wayne Rooney is expected to return to the side after a short injury absence.

Queens Park Rangers (9) at Norwich (11): A battle of two Premiership newbies as the London side (QPR) take on Norwich. The Canaries (Norwich) have had their share of injury problems and are soft in defense due to holdouts. While, a couple of players may be available off the bench, I don't expect Norwich to introduce them from the on set. Meanwhile, QPR will be without captain Joey Barton. A combined 19 goals have been scored in Norwich's 6 games. 21 goals have been scored in QPR's 6 road games. QPR has been a decent road team with 3 wins in their 6 road contests.

Wigan (20) at Sunderland (15): An important game for both as they are at the bottom of the table. Wigan are the lowest scoring team in the league having scored just 10 goals in 12 games. Important midfield player Sebastien Larsson returns for Sunderland to give them a much needed boost. Sunderland are traditionally a solid home side and Wigan have yet to win away from home this season.

Tottenham (3) at West Brom (10): EPL upstarts West Brom get a boost of good news with leading goal scorer Shane Long returning to the lineup this week. Tottenham are a bit banged up top as Defoe and Van der Vaart will likely miss the game due to injury. Luckily for Spurs, they have solid depth up top and Roman Pavlyuchenko will be inserted if either Defoe / VdV can't go. Tottenham are on a 9 match unbeaten streak... with 7 of those wins since losing to Manchester City. Tottenham are 4-1-1 away, while West Brom are 2-1-3 at home. Could be a tricky game for Spurs...

Fulham (16) at Arsenal (7): Arsenal are their best form of the season coming off a 2-1 win to clinch a spot in the Champions League' Round of 16. Arsenal are led by the red hot Robin Van Persie who has 16 goals in all competitions this season. In 29 league games in the calendar year 2011, Van Persie has scored 31 goals. Simply outstanding. Arsenal have won their last 5 games which includes a thrilling win at Chelsea. The odds are stacked against Fulham who have never beaten Arsenal away in 25 meetings. In those 25 meetings, Fulham have only managed 3 draws. In Fulham's 6 road games this season, they have allowed only 6 goals, but have scored only 3.

Will provide Sunday previews tomorrow.

[twise]

Nice game capsules Jay, thanks. Looking forward to some good matches tomorrow. I am a fan of the EPL (I specifically follow Tottenham) but am not too familiar with strategies for betting the league or soccer in general. Do you have any advice for easing into the action? My first instinct is to take top of the table favorites at home (Arsenal, Man U, Chelsea) and parlay them with a team like Stoke who has a great chance at home against bottom feeding Blackburn.

[Beyond the Bets]

Jay, I could care less about this stuff, but I appreciate what you bring to the forum. I know there are a few here that definitely love this info, even the lurkers.

Now that I've got that out of the way, what's the "lead pipe?"

[SkyBlues42]

I just saw this thread. Going to look at it a little more tomorrow, but just wanted to say, nice work.

[JayPrimetown]

(11-26-2011 12:33 AM)Beyond the Bets Wrote:  Jay, I could care less about this stuff, but I appreciate what you bring to the forum. I know there are a few here that definitely love this info, even the lurkers.

Now that I've got that out of the way, what's the "lead pipe?"

Is soccer a seriously played sport in Vegas? I would think it is a favorite among European gamblers and some others. World Cup must be off the charts.

MLS is my biggest interest... know practically the entire 30 man roster for each team by heart. A league like MLS allows for some interesting opportunities as the lines are usually late to adjust to injured players, etc. However, the league jumped this year from 25% to 35% draws. Perhaps the largest jump of any league in handicapping history.

As for tomorrow's games, the over 2.5 goals (-113) and Stoke for the win (-130) present value. Tottenham is one of my favorite teams to play... they are a very good side and don't have the public bias that a team like United or Chelsea has. Betting against Wigan is not a bad idea given their bottom fedder status in the standings. Despite being at -145, Sunderland still presents real value. And lastly, with the way Arsenal are playing, I have full confidence they win. One can get them at -120 (-1) 5o lessen the juice.

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(11-25-2011 11:54 PM)twise Wrote:  Nice game capsules Jay, thanks. Looking forward to some good matches tomorrow. I am a fan of the EPL (I specifically follow Tottenham) but am not too familiar with strategies for betting the league or soccer in general. Do you have any advice for easing into the action? My first instinct is to take top of the table favorites at home (Arsenal, Man U, Chelsea) and parlay them with a team like Stoke who has a great chance at home against bottom feeding Blackburn.

With the way the season is going, I'd almost always recommend parlaying Man United / Man City ML. It pays out more often than not. The thing with soccer is that there are 3 different outcomes because of the draw. There are many handicappers that will play only draws as they like the +200 payouts. There is value in draw bets, but like other types of systems it is very streaky.

[JayPrimetown]

Aston Villa (10) @ Swansea City (14): Villa are traditionally an upper middle Premiership team finishing anywhere from 5-10 in the Premiership.It's been a bit more difficult this season as the transfer funds have not been as large as in past seasons. With that said, Villa has yet to win a road game in the Premiership this year. Swansea are 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games. Swansea are slight favorites in the match and are available to win at +110. Villa have the most draws in the Premiership (6) having drawn 50% of their matches. Villa have scored 17 goals in 12 games, while Swansea have scored 16 in 12 games.

Manchester City (1) @ Liverpool (7): One of the most important matches of the season for Liverpool as they face Premiership leaders Man City. The Manchester side are unbeaten to start the season amassing 11 wins and a draw with a goal differential of +31... which translates to an average victory margin of 2.5 goals a game. However, Liverpool have owned City at Anfield Road as City have not win in their last 8 games there. In their last meeting in April. Liverpool beat City 3-0. This is not the same City team though that is running on a high level confidence at the moment led by the strike quartet of Sergio Aguero, Mario Ballotelli, Edin Dezeko, and David Silva. Meanwhile, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 5 league games including last weekend's win at Chelsea.