English Footie 1/31

[bracks]

Hey fellas, with FA games and Hockey All Star game done, it's nIce getting back into the mix.

MC @ Everton U2.5 -125

It's been 19 games since EFC has given up more than 2 goals @H. MC haven't scored more than 1g in 60% of L20 @way. EFC hasn't scored more than 1 @H in L6, while conceding exactly 1g in 50% of L20 @H.

Chelsea @ Swansea U2.5 -125

Swansea last conceded more than 2g @H in 57games. Chelsea is still withou weapons with ANC still going. I'm not falling for the short price. Value play would be a draw.

Burnley +180/ pk- +115

This is the worst home team vs. 2nd best road team. Burnley W7 of 13 @way and W7 of L10. Nott For scored in just 2 of L12 @ H, while being SO in 5 of those. Draw seems worst case, playing a lil on both.

Hull City -1 -110

Hull have won 4 of L5 @ H and have beaten all 4 of the bottom 4 teams. DR have L9 and are winless in their L12 trips to Hull City.

I am playing the U3 in Spurs as well. I will say this is probably a push. Spurs were -2 for awhile and I don't see Wigan scoring, Spurs 2-0 pays +400. Safe play here would also be HF/FT -181.

Mount can back me on I have a play on United U3, however that line isn't around anymore. So, I won't post that. You can see the trend, short week, looking for Unders, staying away from the Big names on the road usually saves you $. GL fellas

[mount187]

(01-31-2012 01:04 PM)bracks Wrote:  Mount can back me on I have a play on United U3, however that line isn't around anymore. So, I won't post that. You can see the trend, short week, looking for Unders, staying away from the Big names on the road usually saves you $. GL fellas

This is a true story.

I took the short price on Chelsea. I know they have players missing, but I watched their last game against Swans, and it was a total mismatch. I know things are different on the road, and Swansea are playing better now than they were before, but you never get a price like that on Chelsea against a non-top-tier team. I say Chelsea beats Swans, even on the road, more often than 55% of the time.

I briefly looked at the over in the City match, because of the price, but with no Toure or Balotelli, it doesn't make much sense. They'll play at least Barry in the middle, and maybe De Jong with him. If that happens, it really limits their attack. Barry has a good strike from distance, but he really isn't an attacking player. De Jong only has two goals in his career at City, so he's not really a scoring option either. I'm going to keep my eye on the lineup though, and if for some unknown reason Mancini puts out a Spain-style mini-lineup with Silva, Milner, Aguero, Nasri, and Johnson (with Dzeko up front), I may take another look. City have cooled off with their scoring though. Of their 60 goals, you can throw out 3-4 games and really reduce that number.

I also played City, because I'm a homer. That is all.

[Edit] I was also tempted to play Spurs 1H (they come out like gang-busters at White Hart), but I'm going to pass. Bale may sit out today, and the last time he sat, I had to sweat out a -250 for 75' against a Championship team; no thanks. If for some reason this game is scoreless 70-75' in, I may look at Spurs subs and see what I think; almost certainly won't be the case.

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City did put out an attacking lineup, but Barry is still there, so I'm going to stay away from the over. Everton have allowed the least # of shots on target this year, and City is second. That doesn't set up for a high-scoring affair. @MCFC is also talking about how cold it is there, so the under is probably the better bet of the two (I'm passing).

[JayPrimetown]

As Mount and I had discussed on Twitter, I like the City and Chelsea unders. I'm going to add a smaller amount on the Chelsea - Swansea draw.

Nothing else interests me today on the EPL front... If Bale starts, Tottenham are intriguing bet, otherwise meh.