Early Week 14 NFL Lines

[JSpauny]

Just saw the lines on Betonline. I think there's a few that are just way too low.

Oakland @ GB -10.5
I don't see how this line isn't closer to 13 or 14. Carson Palmer going into Lambeau? Can he possibly succeed? McFadden coming back helps, but that's not a certainty either. I don't see how the Oakland D holds GB under 30.

New Orleans -4.5 @ Tenn
Is this line about 3 points too low or is it just me? I don't think NO is nearly as good on the road, but Tenn isn't that great of a team. Certainly not as good as NYG who just got thrashed by NO. Someone talk me out of laying big money on NO right now.

New England -7.5 @ Wash
This is another one that I don't quite understand. Washington has a good secondary, but not "stop Tom Brady" good. I don't have any faith that the Skins can score either. Grossman can throw 4 picks in any given game.

San Francisco -3.5 @ Arizona
I think these teams are closer than people think, but this line is going to move after SF destroys my Rams this week. When they win by 20+ people are going to bet the Niners up in this game. Not so much a bet I like, but I just don't see 3.5 sticking around too long. Arizona, with or without Kolb, just isn't that good of a team.


I hate that I like 3 road favorites because typically I'm a points kind of guy but I had everyone of these lines a few points higher. I had the SF/Ari game almost a TD higher (could just be shitty handicapping on my part). I was close to spot on about every other game so these 4 really stood out to me.

[SkyBlues42]

(12-01-2011 01:26 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  Just saw the lines on Betonline. I think there's a few that are just way too low.

Oakland @ GB -10.5
I don't see how this line isn't closer to 13 or 14. Carson Palmer going into Lambeau? Can he possibly succeed? McFadden coming back helps, but that's not a certainty either. I don't see how the Oakland D holds GB under 30.

New Orleans -4.5 @ Tenn
Is this line about 3 points too low or is it just me? I don't think NO is nearly as good on the road, but Tenn isn't that great of a team. Certainly not as good as NYG who just got thrashed by NO. Someone talk me out of laying big money on NO right now.

New England -7.5 @ Wash
This is another one that I don't quite understand. Washington has a good secondary, but not "stop Tom Brady" good. I don't have any faith that the Skins can score either. Grossman can throw 4 picks in any given game.

San Francisco -3.5 @ Arizona
I think these teams are closer than people think, but this line is going to move after SF destroys my Rams this week. When they win by 20+ people are going to bet the Niners up in this game. Not so much a bet I like, but I just don't see 3.5 sticking around too long. Arizona, with or without Kolb, just isn't that good of a team.


I hate that I like 3 road favorites because typically I'm a points kind of guy but I had everyone of these lines a few points higher. I had the SF/Ari game almost a TD higher (could just be shitty handicapping on my part). I was close to spot on about every other game so these 4 really stood out to me.

All of those actually look too good to be true. Which leads me to believe that I'm missing something.

[KepowOb]

I think the Oak@GB line will move depending on how Oakland does against Miami.

The NEO @ TEN line seems really odd, I don't get that one at all either. It's one of those ones that looks too good to be true though, and makes you wonder what the hell you are missing. The same with the SF @ Arizona line for me. Arizona isn't horrible, but I can't see them keeping it that close, even at home, against the Saints.

NE @ WASH seems like it'll probably inflate too. As you said, taking away favourites can be an uncomfortable position, but if you figure they aren't favoured enough, you gotta go with it, no?

[JSpauny]

When I first saw these I had to double check to make sure I wasn't missing something. I'm glad other people feel the same though. I feel near 90% confident that all of these lines are going to move in my favor which really worries me.

[oddsok]

Wow. I really need an account with BOL

[caseyd]

Don't forget weather conditions in GB and Washington

[JSpauny]

Just checked:
DC next Sunday is sunny and 41
GB is overcast and 24

Neither has any expected precip (though things can change). More reasons to bet the favorites.

[zman1415]

Falcons -3 at the Panthers seems a little low too. Pats are up to -8, Packers -11.5 and Saints -5 on Sportsbook. All 3 getting close to the point where I back off, but I think all 3 lines should increase going into next week (I would expect Pats by 10, Pack by 13+, Saints by 6-6.5). I'll buy now with the chance to get it back next week.

[The Posse]

(12-01-2011 01:31 PM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(12-01-2011 01:26 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  Just saw the lines on Betonline. I think there's a few that are just way too low.

New England -7.5 @ Wash
This is another one that I don't quite understand. Washington has a good secondary, but not "stop Tom Brady" good. I don't have any faith that the Skins can score either. Grossman can throw 4 picks in any given game.

All of those actually look too good to be true. Which leads me to believe that I'm missing something.

I'm going to declare this with complete confidence and without any thought or research: If you can get the Patriots at -8 right now against the Redskins, jump on it now. Someone dock me a rep point if that number doesn't cover please. Thank you.

[SkyBlues42]

(12-02-2011 02:57 AM)The Posse Wrote:  I'm going to declare this with complete confidence and without any thought or research: If you can get the Patriots at -8 right now against the Redskins, jump on it now. Someone dock me a rep point if that number doesn't cover please. Thank you.

But your Redskins beat my Seahawks at home! They must be legit.

[The Posse]

(12-02-2011 10:56 AM)SkyBlues42 Wrote:  

(12-02-2011 02:57 AM)The Posse Wrote:  I'm going to declare this with complete confidence and without any thought or research: If you can get the Patriots at -8 right now against the Redskins, jump on it now. Someone dock me a rep point if that number doesn't cover please. Thank you.

But your Redskins beat my Seahawks at home! They must be legit.

[Whiskeytown]

okay i've seen some NE -7.5 out there.

so the Pats didn't completely destroy Indy, and Washington has a "good" defense.... but even tho yesterday was a tight 13-13 game for a while, NYJ ended up scoring 27 points. and even if the Pats D is a liability, how much can/will Washington really score? 17 at the most? as was mentioned, you hate to like a road favorite giving more than a TD... but shouldn't NE win this game by about 10 or 14? even if washington shows up and somehow plays competitive football with NE, you'd be impressed if they "only" lost 30-20....

[jimmysingh9]

i get scared for the fact that NE is starting WR's and lifelong Special teamers in their secondary and at linebacker. just scares the heck out of me when betting the pats.

[Whiskeytown]

(12-05-2011 01:57 PM)jimmysingh9 Wrote:  i get scared for the fact that NE is starting WR's and lifelong Special teamers in their secondary and at linebacker. just scares the heck out of me when betting the pats.

fair enough.... but can i introduce you to a guy named Rex Grossman?

and possible drug suspensions for TE Fred Davis and LT Trent Williams?

Jets scored 21 on them in the 4th quarter....

perhaps the blowout everyone assumed NE was due to administer against the Colts is actually coming this week at Washington?

[jimmysingh9]

I agree that Washington is nothing to drive home about and Losing Fred Davis and Trent Williams is a loss for sure. You have that on your side.


I was just stating that it's hard to lay over a TD with New England now that there defense isnt that good and backdoor covers are quite easy against the pats.

[Whiskeytown]

yup, pretty much agree.

i guess the whole WR/specialteamers playing Defense is balanced by Rex Grossman playing QB.

[Pujols_5]

I think these are a lot of trap games that most of you aren't really taking into consideration.

[Whiskeytown]

i know AZ is decent at home, and the Saints sometimes struggle on the road/grass vs lesser opponents... but both of those lines still feel a bit low (seeing as they are both still in the 3.5-4 range).

but i'm in no hurry to back road faves when i'm being scared off by lines that smell fishy.... hmm....

[JSpauny]

I'm gunna sit on both lines and either hedge/buy back on Sunday morning when they stop moving.

The only game I don't know what to do with is Buffalo/SD. I took Buf +4.5 expecting SD to struggle again. Now the line is 7+ and I'm not sure if I want to buy it again at +7. I'm kind of stuck on this one. Should I just let it ride because I can't really do much to improve the bet, or buy it again?

[KepowOb]

(12-08-2011 12:20 PM)JSpauny Wrote:  I'm gunna sit on both lines and either hedge/buy back on Sunday morning when they stop moving.

The only game I don't know what to do with is Buffalo/SD. I took Buf +4.5 expecting SD to struggle again. Now the line is 7+ and I'm not sure if I want to buy it again at +7. I'm kind of stuck on this one. Should I just let it ride because I can't really do much to improve the bet, or buy it again?

Are people piling money onto SD because of their Monday night win over the Jags? I don't think Buffalo is a good team, but San Diego isn't a good team either. It surprises me to see the line move this much, when I could see Buffalo at least having a chance of winning this outright. Am I (and JSpauny) missing something