'Does it pay to buy picks?' now w/ RJ Bell guest post

[SkyBlues42]

Ut oh. Is the ITG #MoneyTeam really a tryout for some new tout website? Will these records be the ones used to sell picks?!

[itg_sports]

Ha, that would be typical huh?

The answer is no. I really want the ITGteam to be all free, all the time, and always. The only way it won't be is if it fails miserably and is no longer in existence.

I have really just fallen in love with all things sports betting and I have an "I would do it this way" opinion on just about anything including selling picks.

[SkyBlues42]

(05-09-2012 10:27 PM)itg_sports Wrote:  Ha, that would be typical huh?

The answer is no. I really want the ITGteam to be all free, all the time, and always. The only way it won't be is if it fails miserably and is no longer in existence.

I have really just fallen in love with all things sports betting and I have an "I would do it this way" opinion on just about anything including selling picks.

glad you didn't take that seriously. I forgot to use my sarcasm font

[Beyond the Bets]

Just catching up on this thread but it's been an interesting discussion. Here's a question:

"Is selling picks conducive to winning?"

For instance, LeBron James surely hits 85 percent of his free throws in an empty gym. Out of 100 tries, he'll hit 85.

But if he takes those same 100 free throws late in a playoff game, tie score, closing minutes, sold out arena, how many will he hit? The pressure is on him, and so is the spotlight, and the expectations are high.

"You promised championships!" the fans scream.

Does LeBron hit 85 percent? Or closer to 70 percent?

If he misses the first free throw, the pressure is immense. No different than a tout who misses three or four straight plays and must then release a fifth.

"Do I play it safe and go with a big favorite?" the tout asks himself.

I don't know. The pressure of selling picks and answering to angry clients and public criticism has to mentally wear most touts out. I don't think you can be a successful bettor if you're constantly worried about what those unattached to your bankroll are thinking.

[KnicksFan1221]

This topic all depends on the price/capper. If you pay $500 a year for picks and are a $100/unit player, if you make 5 units you break even from the cost. In my opinion you shouldn't be paying more than 5x whatever you bet per unit for a year of plays.

[GrandaddyCrunk]

Well if it isn't profitable to buy the picks and follow them, is it profitable to buy the picks and fade them?

[SkyBlues42]

(05-10-2012 12:13 PM)GrandaddyCrunk Wrote:  Well if it isn't profitable to buy the picks and follow them, is it profitable to buy the picks and fade them?

You're username and avatar don't show up enough on this forum. I laugh every time I see the combination.

[Beyond the Bets]

(05-10-2012 12:13 PM)GrandaddyCrunk Wrote:  Well if it isn't profitable to buy the picks and follow them, is it profitable to buy the picks and fade them?

Generally speaking, no. A handicapper would have to hit roughly 46 percent (after factoring in cost of plays) for a fade to turn a profit, and while most are horrible cappers, it takes a certain kind of horrible to hit that low of a percentage.

Most handicappers hit between 50 and 52 percent. Obviously, 52 percent isn't good enough and 50 percent certainly isn't good enough.

[mount187]

Just to flesh out the idea that most people have zeroed in on, here an example of the adjustment of your break even win % after you add in the overhead of buying picks:

Cost of service remarkably cheap, reputable service: $1,500 for a full year (RAS charges that per sport I believe)
"Unit" size: $20

Normal break even is roughly 52.38%. So if you played 10k plays, you'd need to go 5,238 and 4,762 at -110 to be almost exactly even (5,238 * 20 = 104,760 in winnings minus 4,762 * 22 = 104,764 in losses).

So for the sake of an example, let's say your service guarantees you at least 1,500 plays over the course of the year (just over 4 plays a day). You look at that and go, "That's only $1 per play from professionals, that's not bad." Then you start looking at the numbers:

Your normal break even on 1,500 plays w/o paying for picks is 786 - 714 (786 * 20 = 15,720 minus 714 * 22 = 15,708). However, now you have to make up an extra $1500 on $20 plays; that's another 75 plays to the good! Now your numbers become 822 - 678 to break even (16,440 - 1,500 - 14,916 = +24). Now your win % needs to be 54.8% to break even. If you shifted the line on a football game from 52.38% to 54.8%, it moves from -110 to -121.24; that's no bueno.

[Wiseguy]

I understand, do those numbers with a $100 player. If you are playing $20 a game you certainly should not shell out $1500 on a service, imo.

[mount187]

(05-10-2012 01:15 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  I understand, do those numbers with a $100 player. If you are playing $20 a game you certainly should not shell out $1500 on a service, imo.

Your normal break even on 1,500 plays w/o paying for picks is about 786 - 714 (786 * 100 = 78,600 minus 714 * 110 = 78,540). However, now you have to make up an extra $1500 on $100 plays; that's another 15 plays to the good. Now your numbers become 793 - 707 to break even (79,300 - 1,500 - 77,770 = +30). Now your win % needs to be 52.9% to break even. If you shifted the line on a football game from 52.38% to 52.9%, it moves from -110 to -112.31; no nearly as bad, BUT!, you've risked $165,000 and made $30 at that 52.9% clip. I doubt anyone here is going to sign up for that.

If you're a $100 player at 2% of your bankroll, that puts your funds at $5,000. Let's say your goal for the year is to make a very modest $2,500 on that money.

(806 * 100 = 80,600 minus 1,500, minus 694 * 110 = 76,340) = +$2,760

New required win %:

806 / 1500 = 53.7% or -116

[Wiseguy]

Mount, thanks for your work! So the case can certainly be made if you are a serious player (don't mean to offend anyone) a service can certainly be a worthwhile investment. Obviously these numbers only look better as you go higher. If you took my average play amount it would only bump slightly.

[mount187]

(05-10-2012 01:56 PM)Wiseguy Wrote:  Mount, thanks for your work! So the case can certainly be made if you are a serious player (don't mean to offend anyone) a service can certainly be a worthwhile investment. Obviously these numbers only look better as you go higher. If you took my average play amount it would only bump slightly.

I think what you would have to add to this though, is a) you have to find a legitimate service, and b) you have to get a reasonable price. I don't think there are any reputable services around that offer year-long prices as low as $1,500. I just pulled that number out of thin air, because it would be easy to use. As I mentioned above, RAS charges that amount per sport if I remember right. So you'd have to be somewhere between 25-30 games over .500 as a $100 bettor just to break even per sport.

[Wiseguy]

Agreed. Just love playing devils advocate.

[mount187]

Let's say out of the 512 games in the NFL, your service picks 25% of the 1,024 options (side + total per game, excluding props, team totals, etc.), you'd make 256 plays in a season. At $1,500 cost on $100 plays, if you wanted to make 20% on your $5,000 bankroll, you'd need to make $2,500 more than you lost. That means your service would have to go 146-110: (14,600 - 1,500 - 12,100) = $1,000. That's a win rate of 57%, or -132.56.

That's a hefty win percentage.

[GrandaddyCrunk]

The thing I'm wondering about though, is like for a baseball season, say the guy hits 48% or something...

Generally, don't handicappers tend to stick to -105 - -130 range for baseball? Meaning you would be hitting plus money plays.

[Beyond the Bets]

Yep. That's particularly the case with Covers Experts, who only get paid on wins with their "guaranteed selections."

Offers them no incentive to pick dogs.

[JayTodd]

BTB, you bring up a good point...

Your job shouldn't change if you are a sports bettor that also sells your picks. Your full attention should be directed towards capping.

The only thing that should change if you have partners or marketing/advertising team doing all the website, email newsletters, etc.

[Beyond the Bets]

RJ Bell of Pregame.com wrote a guest post in response to the main page article that appeared earlier in the week (see OP of this thread). It will be posted on the site on Monday.

Should make for some interesting discussion.

[SkyBlues42]

(05-11-2012 03:10 PM)JayTodd Wrote:  BTB, you bring up a good point...

Your job shouldn't change if you are a sports bettor that also sells your picks. Your full attention should be directed towards capping.

The only thing that should change if you have partners or marketing/advertising team doing all the website, email newsletters, etc.

I'd be curious to know how much time some of these cappers actually put into capping a game. Would also like to know their process. I can't imagine most of them take it seriously.