Do you believe in the Wild?

[Beyond the Bets]

Wild just signed Suter and Parise.

Odds are 100/1 at Sportsbook.com. A few other books might have futures posted, but if so, I haven't seen 'em. That number won't be there for long.

[Weebay]

Non believer

[joeytunes2]

i dont believe but love the odds...always headge room..and hockey anything possible

[RickRude]

Q: "Do you believe in the Wild?"

*checks rest of the roster

A: Oh god no.

[ChiefZilla]

Never heard of either of those players, so no. I don't.

[knuckleballah22]

they need one more star to be considered a contender... or bluechip prospects coyle or zucker need to make the jump

[arzoman]

It's hockey. Star players don't hurt, but does it really mean as much as say basketball or football? After seeing what the kings did in the playoffs, I will probably never place another futures bet in hockey. It's just SO ridiculously flukey!!!

[SkyBlues42]

IDK. It's not like the Kings came out of nowhere. They were looked at as a very good team throughout the year. But the 'randomness' of the playoffs with all of the upsets does make the futures market much more desirable, IMO.

You can get decent value on teams that aren't going to get a 1-3 seed and still have a good chance of winning the SC. With the Wild, however, I have no clue. Even at 100-to-1 I'm not really tempted at all.

[RickRude]

(07-08-2012 12:12 PM)arzoman Wrote:  It's hockey. Star players don't hurt, but does it really mean as much as say basketball or football? After seeing what the kings did in the playoffs, I will probably never place another futures bet in hockey. It's just SO ridiculously flukey!!!

I don't think it's that flukey. The one constant for winning the cup is having a premier top end goaltender. Every Cup team since the lockout has had a top 5 goaltender in GAA except for Cam Ward in 06 (since he wasn't even going to play until MArtin Gerber got destroyed in the first game and ahalf) and Marc Andre Fleury who was top 5 the next season.

That being said, Parise and Suter in no way will leap Minnesota to a Cup win. The surrounding players will do that. If it was all about two players the Penguins would have been playing for Cups the last 4 seasons.

[arzoman]

So you guys disagree with me, yet still agree. Alright, I'll take it!

[Skating Tripods]

They've gotta add at least two more defensemen before I even consider them to win the Northwest Division, let alone be a Stanley Cup contender. They're very weak at left wing too.

They're somewhere on par with Colorado in the Northwest Division, behind 4 teams in the Central, Vancouver, and probably 3 teams in the Pacific. That alone makes it very, very hard for them to make the playoffs.

[RickRude]

My two futures I'll be in on are Carolina at 60-1 and Washington at 25-1. I really like the Caps next season. Adam Oates is exactly the guy Washington needed. Also none of the East teams outside of Carolina have gotten better yet. Washington is going to be a little more wide open which will help the Mike Green types and the way Holtby played during the playoffs makes me think he can handle the responsibility of a more wide open style in net.

As for Carolina they've upgraded big time with Staal. They have room to add another big piece. Their defensmen were very green last season and with some more experience could make the leap like McDonagh and Del Zotto did in New York. Cam Ward has won a cup. Ottawa is worse. The Devils are worse. Florida,Tampa and Winnipeg are stagnant. At the worst one of Carolina/Wash makes the playoffs, IMO which should provide plenty of hedge opportunity.

[ChiefZilla]

I'm no hockey expert, but what I'm hearing is the Wild need an elite goalie to be a contender. If that's true, I hear this guy's on the market and looking to change sports. Gigantic AND mobile! Yeah!

[Skating Tripods]

(07-08-2012 10:41 PM)RickRude Wrote:  As for Carolina they've upgraded big time with Staal. They have room to add another big piece. Their defensmen were very green last season and with some more experience could make the leap like McDonagh and Del Zotto did in New York. Cam Ward has won a cup. Ottawa is worse. The Devils are worse. Florida,Tampa and Winnipeg are stagnant. At the worst one of Carolina/Wash makes the playoffs, IMO which should provide plenty of hedge opportunity.

Issue with Carolina is that their McDonagh/MDZ was Dumoulin and they traded him away.

What's going for them is definitely the division that they're in, but their defense corps looks even worse without Dumoulin. He was really coming on strong.

Staal's a good player, but losing Sutter pretty much tore apart their overall depth.

Not to say that they aren't worth a flier at 60/1, but I really don't expect them to be in the hunt.

I do think there's value on Washington.

[RickRude]

(07-09-2012 04:52 PM)Skating Tripods Wrote:  

(07-08-2012 10:41 PM)RickRude Wrote:  As for Carolina they've upgraded big time with Staal. They have room to add another big piece. Their defensmen were very green last season and with some more experience could make the leap like McDonagh and Del Zotto did in New York. Cam Ward has won a cup. Ottawa is worse. The Devils are worse. Florida,Tampa and Winnipeg are stagnant. At the worst one of Carolina/Wash makes the playoffs, IMO which should provide plenty of hedge opportunity.

Issue with Carolina is that their McDonagh/MDZ was Dumoulin and they traded him away.

What's going for them is definitely the division that they're in, but their defense corps looks even worse without Dumoulin. He was really coming on strong.

Staal's a good player, but losing Sutter pretty much tore apart their overall depth.

Not to say that they aren't worth a flier at 60/1, but I really don't expect them to be in the hunt.

I do think there's value on Washington.

I wasn't counting Dumoulin only because he hasn't even played a game yet. Not high on Faulk? I kind of like him. Carolina's D does have a lot of work to do but they still "only" finished 10 points out of a playoff spot. I do think Rutherford will add a couple pieces but who knows. A flyer on Semin would be interesting.

[Skating Tripods]

(07-09-2012 05:51 PM)RickRude Wrote:  I wasn't counting Dumoulin only because he hasn't even played a game yet. Not high on Faulk? I kind of like him. Carolina's D does have a lot of work to do but they still "only" finished 10 points out of a playoff spot. I do think Rutherford will add a couple pieces but who knows. A flyer on Semin would be interesting.

I'm not denying that they have a ton of cap space to work with. I think they can definitely add to their roster. Thing is, in looking at their defense, their bottom 8/9 forwards suck even more. They really are a one-line team. Their defense might be passable.

But, GAA by goaltenders who made playoffs:
Elliott/Halak: ~1.70
Quick: 1.95
Lundqvist: 1.97
Howard: 2.12
Smith: 2.21
Fleury: 2.36
Thomas: 2.36
Rinne: 2.41
Brodeur: 2.41
Luongo: 2.41 (Schneider: 1.96)
Niemi: 2.42
Theodore: 2.46
Bryzgalov: 2.48
Crawford: 2.72

Only Anderson (2.83) and whoever WSH was playing were worse than Ward's 2.74. Bad depth + average defense won't help CAR at all.

Again, like I said, at 60/1, if they sneak into a 7th or 8th seed, you may have some options. But, even at 60/1, hedging seems difficult because their first round opponent will probably be a -220+ dog.

But, at 60/1, with 20M in cap space to play with, they could be a drastically different team by October. There's definitely no shortage of defensive upgrades on the market (Barker, Finger, Morrisonn, Colaiacovo) but I don't see a lot of secondary scoring available. And I think that's Carolina's downfall.

I guess what I'm saying is, even at 60/1, what hedge options are you giving yourself? You basically have to have them win their division and get home ice to get first or second round value on their opponent. Unless you want to lay 180 or higher.